How does one go about sizing multiple bets on the same event under different lines without getting over-exposed? Better yet what is the best, most optimal way to go about it?
Hypothetically let’s say that over tens of thousands of bets a player knows the following:
Bets between 1.80-2.00 have 4% edge on evg.
Bets between 1.60-1.80 have a 3% edge on evg.
Bets between 1.40-1.60 have a 2% edge on avg.
On some events the player is able to bet on just one of the three categories, on some he can bets on two of the three categories and on some he bets on all three of them.
The player is a value bettor and executes 2000-4000 bets per month.
The bets are not exclusive.
An example of when all three categories are bet on would look something like this:
Home +0 @ 1.95, Home +0.25 @ 1.65, Home +0.5 @1.40
I assume by taking all three bets instead of only the first one (Home +0 @ 1.95), the player can produce greater turnover, therefore greater P/L, but will increase size of swings. Am I right to think so?
What would be the optimal way to spread the risk across multiple bets?
Thanks in advance!
Hypothetically let’s say that over tens of thousands of bets a player knows the following:
Bets between 1.80-2.00 have 4% edge on evg.
Bets between 1.60-1.80 have a 3% edge on evg.
Bets between 1.40-1.60 have a 2% edge on avg.
On some events the player is able to bet on just one of the three categories, on some he can bets on two of the three categories and on some he bets on all three of them.
The player is a value bettor and executes 2000-4000 bets per month.
The bets are not exclusive.
An example of when all three categories are bet on would look something like this:
Home +0 @ 1.95, Home +0.25 @ 1.65, Home +0.5 @1.40
I assume by taking all three bets instead of only the first one (Home +0 @ 1.95), the player can produce greater turnover, therefore greater P/L, but will increase size of swings. Am I right to think so?
What would be the optimal way to spread the risk across multiple bets?
Thanks in advance!