looking at some old queries i had bookmarked for progressive betting and other opportunities. got a few good percentage i came across. if anyone has any for basketball or any other sports please post here. thanks.
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this one is 57%. gonna have to do monthly breakdowns as well. liking anything around 54% preferably.
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this one is 54% with lots of opps.
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same here without clips and thunder. things will change without westbrook and paul. but when i first did query they destroyed quite a few winning streaks.
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cowboys when scoring 24 or more. road numbers even better.
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that first one is data-mining. way too narrow. and for data mining, that's not an impressive win rate .....
you need some sort of basic notion as to why 11 points is different than 10 points for players, coaches and betters. especially since different books might have had lines for that game within that whole range. i love sqdl and killersports but i wouldn't trust their data completely. another reason for what i'm going to suggest next.
i would look for minimum 3 point windows for that type of filtering in the NBA..... 0 to 4 point underdog games play differently than 4.5-8 and 8.5 to 12 point games. of course you have home/road so you have to play around with that.
i am not sure but i think big favorites have been consistently good in the NBA for quite awhile now. if you take out lebron teams, it goes up even more.. i'll double check thoughComment -
the reason the road favs that large play significantly better is you have to be a pretty superior team to give up that amount on the road. i think tanking plays in as well as many of these dogs are not often putting their team in a position to win and the effort isn't the same on a tanking team. also 14-3 ats after dec 31 as the books have a grasp on who teams are. i like the way its trending and am looking forward to playing and following it.Originally posted by gojetsgomoxiesComment -
denver after a loss as a favorite post Peyton Manning o/u is 0-12
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Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies
why don't you trust their data? do you think its incomplete or just inaccurate due to line movement? and what line do they use for data? is it closing?Comment -
Any one using SDQL is data-mining. That is what it is. You could separate it into any many buckets as you want. It is a data mining tool.Comment -
This fact is meaningless for the 13th game. Agree with Waterstpub87, this is data mining. It simply won't work in the long range. If you really want to believe, go ahead. But please don't commit much money to it.Originally posted by kingdomComment -
not in the long range, but i believe trends in sports can match personnel, as in current players, coaching styles and management. denver without a qb is a defensive team. so they are coached to win with defense first. i believe effort is a part of sports and with their strength being on the defensive end, those players will perform at a higher level. denver in points for has been a bottom 3rd offense since peyton left with a defense that keeps games on avg in the 42 pt range. nfl teams that avg 42 total ppg in that time frame are typically teams with a majority of games going under. so it is not solely on the trend, but i look for factors behind it as well.Originally posted by BsimsComment -
home dogs of 8+ are 3-22 o/u since start of 2017 season. redskins in play this week. pats defense excellent. 2-14 last 16 ats as well.
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october trend for ncaaf. sdst qualifies this week.
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another recent october trend. 7 plays last season for 7-1. 5 plays in 17 for 4-1. hoping for a few opps this year.
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focusing on cowboys and packers: since dak prescott became qb cowboys are 19-2 su at home and 15-4-2 ats when holding teams under 24 pts.
pack are 2-13 su when giving up 17+ on road in same time frame. both wins have come against the cowboys. interesting to see if pack can buck trend agains against the boys.
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just a trend i want to monitor of small road dogs off a blowout loss.
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There are only a few ones i use, i will only share 2.
H and A(points@team and season) - A(o
oints@team and season) + oA(ooints@team and season) - oA(points@team and season) + line>0 and season>2004
over valued home teams
https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
under valued home teamsComment -
solid numbers. gonna run it with a few monthly filters too.Originally posted by nash13There are only a few ones i use, i will only share 2.
H and A(points@team and season) - A(ooints@team and season) + oA(ooints@team and season) - oA(points@team and season) + line>0 and season>2004
https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
over valued home teams
https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
under valued home teamsComment -
no adams makes me like the boys even more here. don't see the pack doing a lot of scoringOriginally posted by kingdomComment -
Purdue in a tough spot against PSU. i'm only interested in this trend when the teams are in bigger conferences i actually heard of in football.
https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Comment -
whats the purdue trend? Im horrible at trying to read sdqlOriginally posted by kingdomComment -
teams that avg over 350 passing yards and a dog any month outside sept. 28.5 was an ugly line as its more than 4 td's. tough cover number because even if you are up 5td's and they score a garbage one you don't cover. so purdue got the W by the hook.Originally posted by jtolerComment -
sdsu covered winning by two td's.Originally posted by kingdomComment -
favorite trends for this week are dallas, pats under, denver under.Comment -
this trend has won 17 in a row ats. titans and browns qualify this week.
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Comment -
this trend has lost 20 in a row ats. will be a good test as it is against the chiefs tonight.
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Comment -
its actually this one:Originally posted by kingdom
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Comment -
can you explain this to me?Originally posted by kingdomComment -
sorry so late. team is home and on grass and previous week won as fav and avg over 23.5 pts last 3 games on a sunday since 2016Originally posted by blackHIPPYComment -
arizona and hawaii are in play this week. both against pretty good teams.Originally posted by kingdomComment -
oregon plays over at home in 71% of games since 08 season. premiere defense this year. this trend was 23-0 over until last week. in play tonight.
https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Comment -
tonights trends heavily favor lafayette. one being 14-0 and the other being 41-11 since the 15 season:
https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Comment -
stanford is 86-60 ats since start of 08 season. ucla is 26-44-2 since middle of 13 season. it is more disparity when they play each other as stanford is 11-0 su and 10-1 ats vs ucla since 2009 season:
https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
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broncos are 1-13-1 o/u their past 15 games as majority of talent is on defense and running game. they should be able to run the ball again tonight and control clock. thursday games are weird though.
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Comment
