Good arguments for taking +1.5 above when the price is right - can any of the anti +1.5er's say exactly why they have that belief?
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But the extra 25-30% you will pick up by taking the +1.5 is often undercompensated for in the +1.5 line. Yes, +1.5 -165 would look steep, but if the fair price is +1.5 -175, it's still good.Comment -
IrishTim asked if there was value in betting the run line at -1.5, with yes and no as the answers. This resulted in a discussion about taking the run line +1.5. Again with mixed views.
The obvious answer is that depending on the probability of a wager winning and the line, there is value in any potential bet. But I was curious about if it would be harder to find value in any particular type of wager. So I took a file of last years lines and looked at the return on several types of simple bets. Following are the results;
.950 betting all visitors
.979 betting all home teams
.962 betting all dogs
.968 betting all favorites
.959 betting all +1.5 run lines
.973 betting all -1.5 run lines
My conclusion is that betting the +1.5 run line and making a profit would be more difficult than betting the run line -1.5.Comment -
Good info Sims, but what do the decimals represent?Comment -
This conversation keeps returning to betting the RL blindly, and that's never really been on the table. The bottom line is that both the +1.5 and -1.5 have their place, depending on the situation. You need to have an understanding of what the true value of each wager is (compared to the ML) for each situation, and not just a vague concept. Too much opinion in this thread with no math to back up the claims... This is the Think Tank, after all.Comment -
All mathematical based wagers are as blind as they are freakyComment -
The .959 betting all +1.5 run lines means you would have returned 95.9% of the money you wagered if you bet blindly (versus 97.3% betting all -1.5 run lines). Your objective is to find those wagers that would raise this percentage to above 100%. To me this means if will be more difficult finding good wagers in the +1.5 run universe than the -1.5 universe.
Paulypoker - I apologize for wasting your time. I will refrain from doing so in the future.Comment -
Suicidekings speaks wisdom. Betting blindly into runlines is suicide, especially if you're paying 10 cents to do it, but if you find RLs that are off where they should be, which they frequently are, they are often the right way to bet on a team. On a few (highly predictable) occasions they're even value when you have no opinion. Anyone who blindly rejects either +1.5 or -1.5 is leaving an opportunity and therefore money on the table. Remember that the total and the odds of each team winning change the odds of a win by 1, but you'll have to figure out exactly how on your own.Comment -
My languauge
Your language
Same exact theoryComment -
never bet +1.5. I think bad teams tend to lose by -1.5 more then average teams...I just started tracking it though.Comment -
Back on to the -1.5. Something I could add to the thread would be looking at the difference from the moneyline offered in a straight up win and the money line tagged to the -1.5. Not having stats to back this up, just observation, but I find that a difference between the two is less that 80 take the ML, the team will typically win outright.
My logic behind this theory is the book is attempting to entice the bettor into taking the larger payout at a 100-130 difference.
IE
COL ROCKIES , Pitcher: A COOK-R -1½+105 o9½-110 -157
WAS NATIONALS , Pitcher: C STAMMEN-R +1½-125 u9½-110 +137
We have a 62 point difference in the Rockies tomorrow between ML and RL. This is saying to me that the book thinks the Rocks win by more than one. But, knowing that, why gamble the runline? I personally take comfort in knowing the book feels less comfortable in offering a larger payout for RL.
Now look at this game.
911 KC ROYALS , Pitcher: B BANNISTER-R +1½-215 o9-125 -110
912 TOR B-JAYS , Pitcher: B MORROW-R -1½+185 u9+105 -110
Books have BJays at a 95 point difference offering the RL. To me, seems that they might want that bet taken.
Just an observation.Comment -
Except for the minor fact that home teams win by exactly 1 run a hell of a lot more often than road teams win by 1 run. Seriously, do you people even think before you post? No wonder Justin7 wants people banned from the Tank. (And he better give me 2 points for this post or else I might start posting similar "observations."Comment -
You should do as I do and save your breath cause this is a forum which is impossible to regulate as long as there is free speech and what are the odds of free speech to stop ???????
exactly so just ignore or poke fun at post you don't like and by no means do not get worked up over it
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Bad example I gave and there isnt one the board right now. But, my point is still the same. Sometimes two away or two home teams can have a total point difference in adding the ML and RL. Just on observation. Dont get mad and no need to insult and get upset.
I gave you four points since you asked for two from Justin. Chill and try to remember your manners please.
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what sites offer -1 and -2? also i usually dont play home teams -1.5 just because of the you lose that extra half if they are ahead.Comment -
Yeah because betting on 55 win teams with an extra run in your bank is better than betting against them.
As faras all the other arguments go, you cant look at it in a vacuum.
I have databases out the ass, and I have looked and relooked and checked and rechecked, there is no blanket strategy.
There is also no math that is fool proof. Math is based on past results, and sometimes on past results that have little to no bearing on the gae in qestion. But past results as a whole have ZERO effect on something going forward. But it is what people use and try to talk about ot sound smarter than everyone else. I have huge databases, but to DISPROVE all the crazy 'math' talk certainly not to justify it.
Like I have always said if math could beat sports betting you have guys with coke bottles and pocket protectors wiping these guys out.
The biggest irony is that where math is most important, geting the best vig or price on a bet and the ability to maximize one's bankroll are totally lost on everyone, especially the guys who love to talk about math and +ev situations. If a guy is writing 4 paragraph posts about why you want to bet a team because it is +ev and then plays them at say -134 when -127 is available somewhere else. Run dont walk away from that guys posts in the future.
Any idiot can sound smart, maybe even look smart if he knows how to use google search and can plagaerize what someone else said (which is more than likely wrong to begin with) and cites facts and figures and past results.
Bottomline is anyone that has a REAL workable angle and posts it on a public forum is an idiot to begin with. I made that mistake once and wont ever do it again. real and true angles are nearly impossible to findthese days, but if you can get one hold it tight and dont mention it to anyone, because it willdisappear very fast.Comment -
They say the early bird gets the worm, but remember the early worm got ate by the bird.
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When pinnacle was available in the US I buried them with betting their first offerings. MLs, RLs, totals didnt matter. Secret was to get in first for as much as you could. Then wait for the chips to fall. USually that meant getting enough of a move to buy back the other side, sometimes at Pinnacle sometimes at a nother book. Basically printing money. And since I scalped Pinnacle against their own lines for over 4 years I dont think they had a probelm with it, and more than likely had plenty of hidden action somewhere. Although they did start reducing their overnight limits drastically. Once midway through the year, and a second time at the beginning of the next season, but it was still possible to bet a game, let the linemove a penny or two and bet it again at the new odds. because at that time even with a penny or two with the 'worst' of it, their lines would sometimes move 40 and 50 cents. You just had to take a good lead on the 'right' side, which wasnt too difficult usually. And even if you did and the action moved against you there you could usually lay it off at another book and lose a nickle at the most.
Runlines were actually the easiest ones to 'manipulate' maybe because they had lower restriction on their software but I used to bet the alteranate runlines and the Rls together sometimes and it would be free money as well because they moved the lines more for less action.
But I got stupid and talked about it on the fourms and they changed their software so it took a little more effort to see the dramatic changes. But Pinnacle isnt waht it used to be, I have a proxy so I can still be there if inclined but it is a shadow of its former self.Comment -
Depends on if they are gambling or trying to balance themselves. SIA was good for what it was for as long as you could bet there. Us old timers probably had he best of it. decent limits and I think I took 15 or maybe 16K out of there before I finally was shown the door. Paid in full in less than a week. But that was back in 2001 or so. I was actually thinking of trying to re-up with them to see how it was these days. And to see if I could get away with it. But I doubt it, even though it has been almost 10 years.
Rogue books are OK for guys fooling around and not too worried about their money, but if you want to bet any decent amouns of cash and want to feel as safe as you can with having that kind of post up money offshore they arent that great. If you can weasel a credit account out of them that is a big bonus.Comment -
say I post up $1,000 and play with their rogue lines. about 20-40 a game in the start. Is this worth my time, mind you I'm still learning and am new to the industry. They will pay out when they figure out my antics right? Are these amounts to small they won't even care?Comment -
That's a great way to start, although I'd personally spread my money around a bit at a couple different books. I'm not aware of any times that SIA has failed to pay anyone except in cases of blatant multiple account abuses. Basically once you've won a certain amount, they boot you, but pay you when they do.Comment -
SIA is as safe as they get in regards to getting paid, best thing to do is throw 500 or so away, bet small amounts for awhile and then once you get a feel for how they shift lines and move on air in the middle of trying to place a wager (not sure if they still do that or not) then you can win from them and hope because you lost a little bit and re-upped and showed some 'bad' patterns they wont flag you as fast as they might.
Just try not to make it look obvious. Dont bet them only when they have the best number, throw some around alittle bit and make it look like you are betting 'normally'.
That goes for any small time book that isnt looking for 'sharp' or 'educated' action. if you play like an idiot and spread out the 'good' bets you might have alonger life with them.Comment -
i kind of skimmed the thread and didnt see anything about this.
does anyone have any number on 9th inning or later situations. what are the percentages on the home team winning by one run vs. more than one run? also with the visiting team? logically it seems the visiting team is more likely to win by more one run while the home team less likely.Comment -
This should help:
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sweet man thanks
i am sure the visiting team is much higher
with it being around 4.5 percent, is that close to the league average of home runs hit per at bat?Last edited by antifoil; 05-05-10, 12:50 AM.Comment
