Accidentally bet the Jays/Red Sox Over 10 +185

**KVB** · 06-21-19, 03:49 PM

Just sell back pick up the UNDER 10 Johnny, the best you can is lose that vig.

No need to get fancy here.

**TommieGunshot** · 06-21-19, 04:35 PM

I would bet any under I could find that I estimated at +EV, no matter how small the edge, even 0.01%. Could be game, first half, first inning, team totals, alternates. I could lose both, but I could also win both, most likely split. If I couldn't find any under that had any edge, I would just let it ride on going over 10. Making two bad bets is going to be worse than making one bad bet

**KVB** · 06-21-19, 04:39 PM

If that's the case take the UNDER 8.5 or even buy it to 9 for the potential push.

The Contrarian Fund has both Toronto and the UNDER on the radar.

It's not the best play in the world but the UNDER is the play, if you must make one.

**BigdaddyQH** · 06-21-19, 07:44 PM

You losers stop making a big deal out of this. The kid made a mistake. Just take the Under and write off some vig. How much do you think he actually wagered? If it is like most of the guys in here, it was $10.00

**semibluff** · 06-21-19, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by Johnnythunder

Was looking to take under 10 & thought it was -185. How would you attempt to offset the bet or at least minimize the damage?

It's a good case study since the normal error is when someone reads a bet correctly, bets the wrong side accidentally, but has a +ev opportunity to hedge out on the intended bet side or over bet to create a value bet scenario. You haven't posted full information, (what you believe the true odds, (100% book), to be, what other odds you could bet at elsewhere, what bankroll % you could bet, or which loss, (worst case scenario or same financial return guarantee), you are more willing to suffer. For the purposes of this analysis I will assume you intended to bet the Under at -185 and believe the true odds to be -200 Under; +200 Over. By mistake you've bet the Over at +185 and the only odds available to you are -225 Under; +185 Over. You didn't mention a stake Unit so for analysis I'll say your potential return is $92,625, (taking 325 [from 100/225] * 285 [from 185/100]).

You have wagered $32,500 @ +185. Your return will be $92,625 1 time in 3, (from +200 true odds), and $0 2 times in 3. The net value of your stake is (92,625 * .3333) + (0 * .6667). Your stake is only worth $30,865 which is a $1,625 loss, (5%).

You could hedge out but if you believe the true odds on the Under to be -200 and you bet at -225 you are making another -ev bet.
To hedge to wager $64,125 @-225. Your return will be $92,625 2 times in 3, (from +200 true odds), and $0 1 times in 3. The net value of your stake is (64,125 * .6667) + (0 * .3333). Your stake is only worth $61,750 which is a $2,375 loss, (3.7%).

If you hedge out you guarantee a $4000 loss. If you don't you're risking a $32,500 loss and a $60,125 profit.

These aren't real world numbers. These are numbers that non maths people should be able to follow.

@Johnnythunder, if you bet $200 and you can afford to lose the $200 then don't hedge and write it off as a bad experience. In real terms you made a $10 mistake. If the $200 is a big deal to you then spend another $400 and hedge out with a $23.83 loss. The general advice is to do nothing and let it ride. Obviously the analysis would be different if you view the true odds to be Under -240 or you have other, better, odds available to you elsewhere.

I agree with @TommieGunshot in avoiding another -ev bet. I've made a +ev bet to hedge out a losing position that had gone South. I've turned down -ev bets to hedge out a guaranteed profit. -ev bets are for entertainment or desperate scenarios.

**Johnnythunder** · 06-22-19, 02:33 AM

Thanks for the replies men. I bet the first inning under (loss) & the under 26.5 hits/runs/errors (loss). The original wager cashed so I profited 3 mbtc (maybe 25 bucks or so). Should have let it ride. Not displeased considering I would certainly have wagered only the under if I hadn't committed the error.

**KVB** · 06-22-19, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

You losers stop making a big deal out of this. The kid made a mistake. Just take the Under and write off some vig. How much do you think he actually wagered? If it is like most of the guys in here, it was $10.00

You're not supposed to post in the Think Tank, after all the lying, name calling and fighting you try to do.

On top of that, you don't even bet. Remember? You were already ran out of this Forum, by EVERYONE.

Sorry Tommie that you got exposed this ass clown, who didn't even read the posts above him, he knows better than to come into this subforum.

Turns out the OVER was the winning bet after all.

Hope you squeezed out a gain Johnnie.