Dutching Futures

[Baraldsson]

Does anybody here use dutching on futures?

The FA Cup offers a remarkably consistent chance to make a modest and very low-risk profit. Since 1996, the same 5 teams (Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd) have won the FA Cup 22 out of the last 24 times.

Yes, you read that correctly - 22 years out of the last 24.

Obviously betting futures ties up some of your bankroll for longer than ideal, but in this case it's not for the whole season. The 5 teams listed bypass the early rounds so you don't need to put your money down until January, with the final being played in May.

The best part is, the odds are always good enough that you can cover all 5 teams and still make a reasonable profit if any one of them lifts the trophy.

Has anybody found any other opportunities like this?

[semibluff]

24 years ago no-one would have picked Man City or Chelsea. 24 years ago no-one would have said the New England Patriots would outperform the NFL by a wide margin. 24 years ago no-one would have bet on Trump being a future US President. You are simply using hindsight.

[Believe_EMT]

i don't hate this idea

if you found this angle and think it is worth exploiting, i would suggest you take it a little further

if you are suggesting not staking any positions until January, i would suggest you go back and see if EPL points have any semblance of correlation to the FA Cup winner. the Double has only happened 6 times in the last 24 years. not suggesting the mid season league leader will win the league either.

but i would like to see someone produce data on EPL points of the final 2 or 4 FA teams the last 24 years. then you can talk about limiting your field to 3 or 4 teams perhaps. i see if the googles can direct me to the info, seems like something that someone thought of a long time ago and has been tracking

gl

[Baraldsson]

24 years ago no-one would have picked Man City or Chelsea...You are simply using hindsight.

You're spot on, @semibluff, both City & Chelsea have become a lot more successful in recent times due to massive investment from mega-rich owners who weren't around 24 years ago. As you say, hindsight definitely comes into play here.

That said, I only started betting FA Cup futures 4 years ago so the strategy has worked out well for me so far. No doubt it won't last forever, but having made profit 4 years in a row, an unexpected loss when it does inevitably happen will easily be absorbed by profits earned so far.

The first year I tried this strategy I made 80% ROI as the odds were unusually high and I had sprinkled a little extra on 2 teams which I favoured more than the others (I think some people refer to this as hutching?). ROI was 60% in year 2 when one of my less favoured teams won and 58% in year 3. This season I left Liverpool out completely as they've never done well in the FA Cup under Jurgen Klopp so I only covered 4 teams, leading to ROI of 82%.

Just to be clear, I agree fully this is not a foolproof system and sooner or later it'll all go wrong and I'll have to try something else. But at the moment, there's money to be made here, and I'm careful to invest only a percentage of what I've already won.

Anyone thinking of trying this should definitely start small just to test the waters.

[Baraldsson]

i don't hate this idea

if you found this angle and think it is worth exploiting, i would suggest you take it a little further

if you are suggesting not staking any positions until January, i would suggest you go back and see if EPL points have any semblance of correlation to the FA Cup winner. the Double has only happened 6 times in the last 24 years. not suggesting the mid season league leader will win the league either.

but i would like to see someone produce data on EPL points of the final 2 or 4 FA teams the last 24 years. then you can talk about limiting your field to 3 or 4 teams perhaps. i see if the googles can direct me to the info, seems like something that someone thought of a long time ago and has been tracking

gl

Good advice, @Believe_EMT, will definitely look into this. Thanks, brother.