Statistical significance of betting system

[danshan11]

OK, well that might be a popular answer with the forum masses but I think most pro cappers would disagree 100% with that. of course tons of ways to skin a cat but for long term winners a fair line is step 1

[Gaze73]

so basically you think the probability is 100%, line is irrelevant, nice that sounds very cool and profitable!

Uhh, no? How did you come to that conclusion? Just now I won with Giron ML at +329 against Deminaur because people are clueless clowns. Of course I didn't know that Giron would win but I knew for sure he's good value because nobody believed him.

[danshan11]

so you would have taken them at any price even -150?

[Gaze73]

so you would have taken them at any price even -150?

No, that wouldn't be much of a dog would it?

[danshan11]

ok so +101, you bet it still?

[danshan11]

Uhh, no? How did you come to that conclusion? Just now I won with Giron ML at +329 against Deminaur because people are clueless clowns. Of course I didn't know that Giron would win but I knew for sure he's good value because nobody believed him.

and why do you talk about a team like its a pet or horse or something? you are freaking me out?

[Gaze73]

and why do you talk about a team like its a pet or horse or something? you are freaking me out?

What team? Giron is a tennis player. I wouldn't have bet him at +101 because it doesn't work like that. Don't you get it that if the bias is real then it's included in the line no matter the odds? Let's say for the sake argument that there's a 5% bias against dogs that lost 5 games in a row - it doesn't matter if it's a +100 dog or +400 dog, there's still a 5% edge. Now Giron opened at +253 but closed at +329 because of the dumb market's bias and I jumped on that closing price because I knew it's good value according to my system.

[peacebyinches]

I posted two posts up that I don't think the line is efficient in every single game.
I believe in anchor bias and line bias
anchor bias
a line that was set wrong to begin with and it is anchored to that opening price and does not come down to perfect
line bias
dumb money having more weight than pro money because of a few factors but mainly discussed above

I do not believe the line is perfect in all instances. I think overall it is efficient.
in most cases, people that can't beat the line say the line is wrong of course there are exceptions

One of my highest regards for line value has to do with the fuel gauge. Say you don't care about the line then how do you know when to stop betting or keep betting after losing sessions.
I bet 100 games win like crazy
I bet another 100 games lose like crazy
when do I know to adjust or stop without using CLV as the indicator of skill?

Ok, I think I am close to understanding where a lot of misunderstanding have occurred in this thread and many others in HTT. I'll try to keep this short, let me know if I'm close Danshan...
1.) You believe lines are for the most part efficient. Specifically, they follow a weak form of the efficient market hypothesis, whereby value in the lines will generally be 'corrected', (e.g. there is essentially no way to profit regardless of the side you choose - long term at least - because the value converges to 0).
2.) There are two caveats: A. this takes time, and in certain cases there is opportunity to find value on one side and B. very very occasionally there is enough bias that the line would not converge to the fair value it should.
3.) Importantly, the closing line can be used as a metric to quantify how well someone's model/system/coin flipping is performing. This is preferable to you over ROI or some other outcome based metric because actual outcomes are littered with too much noise.


Let me know if I have cracked the maddening code of what is going on in your head danshan.

[danshan11]

1. only way to succeed long term over a large sample size is to buy at a better price than the closing line
3. I dont know what other metric someone could use to determine skill. we all have win streaks and losing streaks so what metric can we use to determine skill if we know wins and losses come and go? huge sample size ok and by then we are poor or by the time we figure out we dont know crapola we are broke, so what can we use to HAVE A GOOD IDEA we have skill before our wallet is empty?

[danshan11]

What team? Giron is a tennis player. I wouldn't have bet him at +101 because it doesn't work like that. Don't you get it that if the bias is real then it's included in the line no matter the odds? Let's say for the sake argument that there's a 5% bias against dogs that lost 5 games in a row - it doesn't matter if it's a +100 dog or +400 dog, there's still a 5% edge. Now Giron opened at +253 but closed at +329 because of the dumb market's bias and I jumped on that closing price because I knew it's good value according to my system.

do you drink and post?
it does not matter if its a +100 or +400 dog, that is the craziest thing I have heard you say and that is a ton of crazy shit.
what in the world is a 5% bias?
do yourself a favor NOT ME you! take Girons avg line his last 10-20 games and then figure out his win % over those 10-20 games and you are going to find your 1st ever betting miracle, he wins as often as he is suppose to. if you want really good numbers go last 100.

Now I am going to be blunt if you picked Giron to win and he won, that is just because he was part of the big CLV equation. I had a bunch of +200 winners too now look at this miracle

W	223
W	223
W	227
L	229
L	231
L	231
L	236
W	239
W	239
L	249
W	256
W	256
W	256
W	256
W	267
L	270
L	271
L	275
L	275
L	288
L	297
L	297
L	301
L	313

[danshan11]

everytime I try to get into a deep discussion with any serious pro bettors, the 1st question they ask is what line do I have on game X. I believe if you answer I dont do lines or I just handicap, they laugh and stop talking to you. THIS IS NOT FACT but seems factual, maybe more like a true story on TV, kinda true but has definitive facts!

[danshan11]

Uhh, no? How did you come to that conclusion? Just now I won with Giron ML at +329 against Deminaur because people are clueless clowns. Of course I didn't know that Giron would win but I knew for sure he's good value because nobody believed him.

\and if you knew Giron was going to dominate why did you not take him when he was +360? you wanted to make a little less money, wanted to be nice to the book? there is nothing about that bet that makes sense at +329.

[Waterstpub87]

W, I like your explanation but with one exception. It is not necessary to know the proper price. I have never created a line.

Think of it this way, at one time you could play home dogs and make a profit. No knowledge of proper line needed and no need to beat the close as home dogs were being underestimated from the gitgo. Things are certainly not that simple any more but the concept is the same. Find criteria for events where the line tends to be under or over estimated and then your job is to figure out at what time during the wagering would be the best time to wager to get the best price (and that does not mean you have to beat the close as oftentimes the best price IS the close). Joe.

I think we have argued this before there Joe. I respect your argument, and as this NBA season goes on, and I barely beat the close, yet continue to win, I remember your post maybe 2 years ago, about rebetting a the clippers after the line moved against you. Plenty of games I see, especially when a team has played back to back with 3 games in the last four night. I normally bet the other side most of the time, and sometimes it moves against me and I end up covering by 30 points. Something to consider.

[danshan11]

I know everyone knows I am just dumb, but I just can't understand how you can "handicap" and not have a line

how do you know to take the bet if you don't have a line

if you think Dodgers +3 wins does Dodgers +4 win ????

I just don't get it? I wish someone would explain it to me, I really do want to understand.

say I think man the Meateaters are going to kill it tonight and win and then if I look up the game to bet it and the Meateaters are -20, I am like whoooaaa that is too much, sure OK but if it was -5 would that be little enough? cause in general I know there are exceptions but GENERALLY the line is a 50-50 deal, so how do you bet without a fair line you generate?

[Gaze73]

\and if you knew Giron was going to dominate why did you not take him when he was +360? you wanted to make a little less money, wanted to be nice to the book? there is nothing about that bet that makes sense at +329.

I did not know that. How hard is it to understand how bias works? Read this https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...CJMD8EPYRKTKXL

Whoah, look at that, a market bias! Who could've ever thought that the almighty market would make a mistake at the closing lines!

[tsty]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

The brain trust is out in force lately

[Gaze73]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

The brain trust is out in force lately

What if I told you that there are systems exploiting closing line biases that still work? And that they are present in every major sport? If pinnacle didn't publish that retirement angle it's possible the edge would still be there, and perhaps there still is to some extent.

[danshan11]

I bet Pinnacle loves you, Gaze!

[Gaze73]

I bet Pinnacle loves you, Gaze!

[danshan11]

gaze is that wins and losses or what is that?

[Gaze73]

gaze is that wins and losses or what is that?

Picks/Units Won/Units Lost/Profit(177.91-153)/Roi

[tsty]

What if I told you that there are systems exploiting closing line biases that still work? And that they are present in every major sport? If pinnacle didn't publish that retirement angle it's possible the edge would still be there, and perhaps there still is to some extent.

I never said you're wrong fwiw
The example you gave is a very a solid context bet
When people say that the market is correct they usually mean in totality
it's very stupid to argue that every single closing line is accurate

[danshan11]

i never said you're wrong fwiw
the example you gave is a very a solid context bet
when people say that the market is correct they usually mean in totality
it's very stupid to argue that every single closing line is accurate

lol smh

[tsty]

lol smh

Why is a 50 y/o typing smh? smh...

I told you before my man put your ego to the side

Go where the easy money is

Stop trying to beat unbeatable markets

easy 6 figures p/a in props

easy 6 figures making multiple accounts killing obscure markets on non pinny sites

Money is everywhere yet you keep making shitty threads on a shit site

[danshan11]

I enjoy posting on forums. I also enjoy discussing sports betting. I dont mess with any props or small markets. The major markets are the fun part for me and I like trying to model the major markets.

[tsty]

I enjoy posting on forums. I also enjoy discussing sports betting. I dont mess with any props or small markets. The major markets are the fun part for me and I like trying to model the major markets.

Which part is fun? Creating the model or beating the market? either way you are on the wrong forum then

Gambling for "fun" is retarded

[danshan11]

I personally enjoy the entire process.

[gojetsgomoxies]

I personally enjoy the entire process.

so do i ............

and most people who beat "for real" on here are just doing it as a hobby with very little money anyway. you could much more easily just track those bets on paper and have the same effect. it's like when i decide whether to go vegas or laughlin or reno (or even primm), i always think i need to be near a top sportsbook for my betting (yes, for my $100, maybe as high as $300 bets... as if i need a giant casino for that).



\

[gojetsgomoxies]

dan,

2 things,

1) if you are really into this debate, can you please check out a paper by moskowitz, sports betting...... in fact i'll post a link.. i "think" that paper suggests that opening lines are more efficient than closing lines. if not, then equalish. he is a major academic and market practitioner (AQR) so he knows what he's doing.

2) prediction tracker (i always get the address wrong) has some potentially good stuff on open/close/move of lines and sports. i've never exactly been able to completely figure it out, but i've never asked.

[gojetsgomoxies]

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=Bv2GXMKAMIvU-gTj56zgBQ&q=moskowitz+sports+betting&btnK=Google+Search&oq=moskowitz+sports+betting&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0.711.5380..5586...1.0..0.133.1578.25j1......0....1..gws-wiz.....0..35i39j0i131j0i131i20i263j0i20i263j0i10j0i22i30.HxoO0Bq1pzY

i might email Dr. Moskowitz and simply ask him as i don't completely understand his study. and don't want to spend 20 hours on reading it line by line and taking notes.

[gojetsgomoxies]

basically, here is moskowitz abstract. bolded part says to me that open is more efficient than close. the game outcomes land closer to open than close.

I use sports betting markets as a laboratory to test behavioral theories of cross-sectional asset pricing anomalies. Two unique features of these markets provide a distinguishing test of behavioral theories: 1) the bets arecompletely idiosyncratic and therefore not confounded by rational theories; 2) the contracts have a known andshort termination date where uncertainty is resolved that allows any mispricing to be detected. Analyzingmore than a hundred thousand contracts spanning two decades across four major professional sports (NBA,NFL, MLB, and NHL), I find momentum and value effects that move betting prices from the open to theclose of betting, that are then completely reversed by the game outcome. These findings are consistent withdelayed overreaction theories of asset pricing. In addition, a novel implication of overreaction uncovered insports betting markets is shown to also predict momentum and value returns in financial markets. Finally,momentum and value effects in betting markets appear smaller than in financial markets and are not largeenough to overcome trading costs, limiting the ability to arbitrage them away.

[danshan11]

many sources including predicted show that the most efficient system that is readily available shows that closing lines are closest to actual outcomes.
I am a freshman to sports betting as a modeler. I am 20 year veteran of betting my gut, trends and looking at meaningless stats and the re ups show me that is not the way.

I cant really honestly believe it is even a discussion among advanced bettors all the data shows if you can beat the line you win. it is simple as give yourself a half point per game on any 100 games and you will see the advantage to beating the line, its not a discussion or argument it is fact.

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/nflresults.php?orderby=cover%20desc&type=1&year=17

the updated line is the most accurate predictor of game results. The opening is not even close.

[danshan11]

the ATS spread is the second column

[danshan11]

I tried to find anyone credible who had an opinion on not beating the line and still being profitable and this was the best I could find from a very reliable source, it was a convo me and Joseph Buchdahl were having. here is his quote
"
I've also shown how closing lines can remain systematically inefficient (not just randomly so), in that shortening prices may not shorten enough and lengthening prices may not lengthen enough. That's certainly the case with soft bookmakers, maybe it's also a lit bit like that at Pinnacle too. Also, given some of the things Marco Bloom, Pinnacle head of trading, has said in his podcasts, we can't rule out the possibility that sometimes the Pinnacle trader might choose not to respond to a sharp's betting and leave the odds where they are. For example, if there is sufficient square money coming on the other side, Pinnacle might take the decision that it's more profitable to let a few sharps have +EV even up to closing, so long as the squares give them even more -EV. Marco Bloom has said that if you move the line, it makes the sharp look good. Maybe Pinnacle might sometimes prefer not to move the line so the sharp doesn't know if he's good or not. As Marco has said, this whole business of line movement is a very delicate construct, driven by the fact that no one truly know a true price."

[SD07]

Guys, is winning 5 fights out of a 7 fight parlay your first time placing a parlay bet have any significance?