BTCL Value: theory + excecution

**danshan11** · 12-31-18, 06:06 PM

line value is valuable on any sport that the closing line is truly efficient

**tsty** · 12-31-18, 06:53 PM

If you are a shit kicker barely betting 10 million a year then yes its everything

**Alfa1234** · 01-01-19, 06:14 AM

Originally posted by tsty

If you are a shit kicker barely betting 10 million a year then yes its everything

Comments like these make me realise most of what you are saying is simple BS. By combining Pinnacle and and a bunch of the books with the biggest limits online, you will not even be able to get on that kind of money. You'll struggle enourmously to get even a third of that on. Let alone the fact that it's seasonal so we're talking over 2million/month. Not happening on US sports, simple fact. Take in soccer and it's remotely possible.

**NSN21** · 01-01-19, 10:58 AM

1. If we are referring to pre-match full game spreads and totals for major (liquid) sports, while I won't go as far as to say it's everything, it's a very large part of the puzzle. The closing line is an aggregate of the sharpest bettors in the world in that sport. Do you need to BTCL to turn a long term profit in these scenarios? for 99.99999% of people I'd say yes. If you had a VERY good process and played at super reduced vig, beating closers might be possible. With that being said, if you are a +EV player, BTCL will come naturally. You see a +EV wager, you play it, eventually the market will close that gap and you'll be holding a "BTCL Ticket"

2. Bet openers/early numbers. You aren't going head to head with the best in the world (yet). IMO modelling is by far the best route to go, but even my models require a captain to "steer the ship", so to speak, to avoid costly mistakes that are unavoidable.

With that being said, if we're talking about quarter lines, halves, in-game, derivatives, props, etc... BTCL value goes way down, because in most cases, there really isn't one, or it's largely based on the FG line.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-01-19, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by NSN21

With that being said, if we're talking about quarter lines, halves, in-game, derivatives, props, etc... BTCL value goes way down, because in most cases, there really isn't one, or it's largely based on the FG line.

Yep. I often "beat the closer" in these sorts of markets simply as a result of my own money moving the line, which is a bit meaningless as a metric.

**BeatTheJerk** · 01-01-19, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Yep. I often "beat the closer" in these sorts of markets simply as a result of my own money moving the line, which is a bit meaningless as a metric.

So you’re a Whale ?

**tsty** · 01-01-19, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by Alfa1234

Comments like these make me realise most of what you are saying is simple BS. By combining Pinnacle and and a bunch of the books with the biggest limits online, you will not even be able to get on that kind of money. You'll struggle enourmously to get even a third of that on. Let alone the fact that it's seasonal so we're talking over 2million/month. Not happening on US sports, simple fact. Take in soccer and it's remotely possible.

Lol are you joking? I hit less than half that while most my bets are 300 600 well I guess less now since i can only bet euro

You have no fking idea what you are talking about once again

**Miz** · 01-01-19, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

So you’re a Whale ?

why is this so shocking that he can move lines? I move them also. Limit bets on early lines in smaller markets will make them move. And he makes a good point about it devaluing BTCL but at the same time, if the line doesn't move back at a later time then there is some value to this as a metric

**danshan11** · 01-01-19, 05:03 PM

first thing
BTCL is not the only way to win long term. Most people who are pros or analyze pros believe it is the best metric to determine if someone is a long term winner. Books use it as an indicator of a players skill and use it NOT exclusively to limit or ban players. The result of MOST successfully long term winners is they beat the line whether that is their real intention or just a result of picking good games where the line is wrong when they bet. BTCL is NOT the only way to win long term we know that line bias is real and there is data to support this just as there is plenty of data to support beating the line CAN be a long term winning formula.

Live betting to me is very dangerous for two reasons, 1 what metric are you using to see if you are skilled or lucky, 2. I believe those lines in general are sharp and have larger margins which makes it harder to win long term.

I cry and preach BTCL is the ONLY way not because it is the only method because for MOST it is a good indication of whether you should be betting more or taking betting serious beyond recreation. The best metric for any serious bettor is the line, can you accurately predict when or before lines come out what the closing line will be, if someone can regularly and consistently do this, they stand a very good chance to be a long term successful winner.
picking Steelers to cover is not a winning strategy with any certainty, you could be good, lucky or just survivorship bias
but if you can consistently predict the closing line or "beat the line" I think this is a very good indicator of skill
either method can win long term and there is data to support both BUT the issue for most bettors is when is it skill and when is it luck and I think we need to try and know this before we bet 10000 "losing games" and knowing lines and beating the line lets us get a good idea in way less games.

**danshan11** · 01-01-19, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by Miz

why is this so shocking that he can move lines? I move them also. Limit bets on early lines in smaller markets will make them move. And he makes a good point about it devaluing BTCL but at the same time, if the line doesn't move back at a later time then there is some value to this as a metric

in small markets it does not take much money to move the lines and in big markets when limits are still low one players bet 250-500 can move a line sure. Now closer to closing and at the end one bettors wager is harder to have much affect on the line. being a whale or being so good books hide under the bed when you bet is usually not the case

**tsty** · 01-01-19, 05:51 PM

Dont waver danshan stay true to yourself

**danshan11** · 01-01-19, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by tsty

Dont waver danshan stay true to yourself

I am always open to new opinions and ideas but I feel this was as accurate as anyone can be on the subject IMHO

**Alfa1234** · 01-01-19, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by tsty

Lol are you joking? I hit less than half that while most my bets are 300 600 well I guess less now since i can only bet euro

You have no fking idea what you are talking about once again

Math says if you hit half that turnover at an average of 450€/bet, betting a huge 280 days out of the year (that's only a day and a half off every week so no vacations), you are making 40 bets every day. And that's 5000 000 turnover, not even 10 million. On US sports. Give me a break.

**tsty** · 01-01-19, 07:59 PM

I do a lot more than 40 bets everyday so theres that closer to averaging double that

**Barrakuda** · 01-02-19, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by tsty

I do a lot more than 40 bets everyday so theres that closer to averaging double that

I don't believe you

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-02-19, 09:04 AM

This may be useful:

Betting Tracker Excel Worksheet - Australia Sports Betting

http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel-worksheet/

Australia Sports Betting offers an Excel betting tracker spreadsheet that is free to download. Three versions of the spreadsheet are available: basic, standard and advanced. All three versions are free. Users of OpenOffice should use the OpenOffice Calc version of the spreadsheet. A Google Sheets betting tracker is also available. The worksheet tracks your betting…

Standard bet tracker spreadsheet, but the advanced version calculates some nice BTCL stats. Splitting into quartiles in particular is a good visualisation.

**BeatTheJerk** · 01-02-19, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by Miz

why is this so shocking that he can move lines? I move them also. Limit bets on early lines in smaller markets will make them move. And he makes a good point about it devaluing BTCL but at the same time, if the line doesn't move back at a later time then there is some value to this as a metric

Carry on then, I bet the Chargers ML (Bookmaker) +120 2 days ago for 5,000 max early bet & 10 minutes later it went to +125. How much are you firing at these books to sway the price Miz ......

**danshan11** · 01-02-19, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

Carry on then, I bet the Chargers ML (Bookmaker) +120 2 days ago for 5,000 max early bet & 10 minutes later it went to +125. How much are you firing at these books to sway the price Miz ......

do you think an NFL playoff game is a small market? I see that as one of the biggest markets out there and it probably takes a ton of money or clout to make that line blink. if you dont believe and would like to wager I will gladly move an NBA BOL opener 1 or 2 points with opener 250 bets at BOL. I dont bet at BOL currently but I know an opener 250 bet will move that needle at least a half point each 250 bet! so if I put 500 to 750 on an NBA game or total the line will jump big time and instantly.

you want to put some cash on that I cant move that line and I will gladly do it, need to be quick BOL openers come out in a couple hours! lets bet!!!!!

**BeatTheJerk** · 01-02-19, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

do you think an NFL playoff game is a small market? I see that as one of the biggest markets out there and it probably takes a ton of money or clout to make that line blink. if you dont believe and would like to wager I will gladly move an NBA BOL opener 1 or 2 points with opener 250 bets at BOL. I dont bet at BOL currently but I know an opener 250 bet will move that needle at least a half point each 250 bet! so if I put 500 to 750 on an NBA game or total the line will jump big time and instantly.

you want to put some cash on that I cant move that line and I will gladly do it, need to be quick BOL openers come out in a couple hours! lets bet!!!!!

No it's not a small market which I forgot to add. Also no I'm not interested in a cross forum wager on how you can move lines in a volleyball game. GL on your wagers in 2019 !

**BeatTheJerk** · 01-02-19, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

No it's not a small market which I forgot to add. Also no I'm not interested in a cross forum wager on how you can move lines in a volleyball game. GL on your wagers in 2019 !

Or an NBA game just stop.

**danshan11** · 01-02-19, 12:05 PM

small market games and low limit openers are easy to move on any sport. now NFL playoff action takes a big horse to move that line!
I have always kinda wondered how actually sharp lines are when syndicates or big bettors or tsty place a bet last second

say Yankees are -142 and in the last second tsty bets 7 million and the line jumps to -157
I think the line would be -142 if tsty was too drunk and forgot to bet but if his antabuse worked and he bet it would move to -157, so which line is efficient? these scenarios always make me a little blurry on the closing line. I think this happens occasionally and overall the line remains efficient but I can see where these scenarios can mess with the lines.

**vampire assassin** · 01-02-19, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Alfa1234

Comments like these make me realise most of what you are saying is simple BS. By combining Pinnacle and and a bunch of the books with the biggest limits online, you will not even be able to get on that kind of money. You'll struggle enourmously to get even a third of that on. Let alone the fact that it's seasonal so we're talking over 2million/month. Not happening on US sports, simple fact. Take in soccer and it's remotely possible.

If you are betting in-game, it's trivial to bet these amounts in US sports (or non-US sports for that matter).

**TheMoneyShot** · 01-02-19, 09:34 PM

20 years doing this.... I will say that the opening line didn't matter much until 2018. On majority of the games I was researching... the opening line had mega value. Years past... you were better off waiting for the line to settle in.... or waiting all the way til game time to place your wager.

I honestly don't know what the cause of this year (2018) was?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-03-19, 04:29 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

20 years doing this.... I will say that the opening line didn't matter much until 2018. On majority of the games I was researching... the opening line had mega value. Years past... you were better off waiting for the line to settle in.... or waiting all the way til game time to place your wager.

I honestly don't know what the cause of this year (2018) was?

Shot, are u talking about NFL (in particular)? I just think that the betting line (in general) gets sharper over time.

**TheMoneyShot** · 01-03-19, 05:02 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Shot, are u talking about NFL (in particular)? I just think that the betting line (in general) gets sharper over time.

Let me rephrase what I said.... opening line dogs had huge advantage College Football... NFL and NBA. I don't know what the cause of it is... but it's screwing around with the way I wager. I'm almost like a deer in headlights. I've wagered the least amount of times in 2018.

Typically... the line would always open up... and you'd gain 0.5 -1.5 points on the favorite... within 2-3 hours. The last 3-4 months... line opens and everyone is hammering the dog immediately. So, there must be whales out there... that know value on the dog.... and they are hammering it.

I'm not saying every game on the board... must be my luck? It's just the games that I run into. And when I'm running good... if the play isn't there... I just walk away and don't wager for the day. I don't like to force things.

**danshan11** · 01-03-19, 09:35 AM

I think that is just your luck, I dont think their is a definitive pattern in movement one way or the other.

**danshan11** · 01-03-19, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Shot, are u talking about NFL (in particular)? I just think that the betting line (in general) gets sharper over time.

the sharper line theory is probably true, even though very little data supports that in the last 5 years. As bettors get more accurate models using algos and models the line probably should become sharper although the evidence of the NBA and NFL line over the past five years does not reflect that

**TechnicalTrader** · 01-03-19, 11:29 AM

in 2018, favorites came within 3 points of their spread only 23.4% of the time. The books were off "considerably" 76.6% of the time. Now how sharp was that?

KillerSports

http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=season%3D2018+and+F&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

KillerSports

http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=season%3D2018+and+F+and+ats+margin%3E%3D-3+and+ats+margin%3C%3D3&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

**tsty** · 01-03-19, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by Barrakuda

I don't believe you

ok so what? I can have 3-4 bets on one event lol it's not hard

I know people betting esports getting down more bets than that daily

imagine thinking 10 million was really difficult to get down when you can max bet 5k euros on most top end sports now

why would you even bother doing this if you thought that?

**tsty** · 01-03-19, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by vampire assassin

If you are betting in-game, it's trivial to bet these amounts in US sports (or non-US sports for that matter).

penetrating exactly lol

there are so many clowns on this forum without a clue

I doubt half these guys even bet regularly

**tsty** · 01-03-19, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

in 2018, favorites came within 3 points of their spread only 23.4% of the time. The books were off "considerably" 76.6% of the time. Now how sharp was that?

KillerSports

http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=season%3D2018+and+F&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sd...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

lol are you serious?

what a penetrating stupid post

look at the sample size you bloody dunce

**TechnicalTrader** · 01-03-19, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by tsty

lol are you serious?

what a penetrating stupid post

look at the sample size you bloody dunce

Is this better Einstein?

KillerSports

http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=season%3E%3D2015+and+F&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

KillerSports

http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=season%3E%3D2015+and+F+and+ats+margin%3E%3D-3+and+ats+margin%3C%3D3&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Still 25%

**danshan11** · 01-03-19, 02:12 PM

quit using killersports dude please use sportsdatabase, the double load time is horrible

**Miz** · 01-06-19, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

Carry on then, I bet the Chargers ML (Bookmaker) +120 2 days ago for 5,000 max early bet & 10 minutes later it went to +125. How much are you firing at these books to sway the price Miz ......

sorry man, just saw this... small markets like CBB totals... $500 or even $250 can move the line 1.5 pts