guy lucky or the best capper ever

**MikeTizzy** · 12-03-18, 11:34 AM

danshan11 why dont u just flip your damn coins!

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by MikeTizzy

danshan11 why dont u just flip your damn coins!

what do you mean?

**gui_m_p** · 12-03-18, 11:56 AM

Well, based on my Monte Carlo simulations there is about a 0.1% of chance the result came just from luck.

It seems almost impossible at first glance, but is one in a thousand. Considering there are thousands of cappers out there, we are gonna see one or another with these results. So it's not THAT rare.

Probably the guy is good, but got a hot streak too. I suggest waiting some more picks to get a conclusive judgment.

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 12:02 PM

I was going to take another week or so and see what happens but man it seems insane, how can you do that good on ATS bets, I forgot to mention the avg line is 51% with juice

**Alfa1234** · 12-03-18, 12:05 PM

Pure luck most likely obviously...see how he fares after a few thousand bets.

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Alfa1234

Pure luck most likely obviously...see how he fares after a few thousand bets.

I mean it just seems really fricken good, it scared me a bit and he is not even close to beating the line I mean most of the time he bets at 558 for a 600 tipoff

**Alfa1234** · 12-03-18, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I mean it just seems really fricken good, it scared me a bit and he is not even close to beating the line I mean most of the time he bets at 558 for a 600 tipoff

Put 10 000 monkeys in a room, let them place random bets on every game and 10 of them will have the same result or better after 180 games. It's survivorship bias.

**MikeTizzy** · 12-03-18, 01:47 PM

danshan you are a clueless beat the line advocate.

**Barrakuda** · 12-03-18, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

L			W	P
69			112	0

NBA and a very few NCAABB from one guy I am taking markets on? about a month or so worth of games

line value is about -1% he bets right before tipoff so no line value really

is this guy the best capper ever or just on a hell of a heater?

If you are a MM at Fairlay, do they allow you to reject/limit action from certain accounts?

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by MikeTizzy

danshan you are a clueless beat the line advocate.

true I 100% agree, I am clueless and that might be the smartest thing to be in this game!

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by Barrakuda

If you are a MM at Fairlay, do they allow you to reject/limit action from certain accounts?

no at fairlay you have no idea who is matching orders. it is great because it is 100% anonymous

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by Alfa1234

Put 10 000 monkeys in a room, let them place random bets on every game and 10 of them will have the same result or better after 180 games. It's survivorship bias.

I keep thinking the same thing but daily his numbers seem darn consistent which in a sense to me is odd in itself. No one is usually very consistent on a daily basis. Anyway I am going to keep it running and see where it goes.

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 02:41 PM

the thing is for me it has to be super luck because its just way too high a winning %62 come on I never even heard of anyone even close to something like that the best I ever even heard of is like 53 54%

**MikeTizzy** · 12-03-18, 03:05 PM

nerfman Danshan what are your lifetime figures at this SBR book? im curious what your numbers look like. IF u cant grow ur betpoints by using a +EV formula thats ever adapting to the true odds thats ever changing in this world, then u cant ever grow a real single dollar and will always be -EV.

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by MikeTizzy

nerfman Danshan what are your lifetime figures at this SBR book? im curious what your numbers look like. IF u cant grow ur betpoints by using a +EV thats ever adapting to the true odds thats ever changing in this world, then u cant ever grow a real single dollar and will always be -EV.

I dont place bets at SBR Book for betpoints, my bet points come from 1 tourney I got in when I first got here and daily trivia or whatever little things get you a few points.

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by MikeTizzy

nerfman Danshan what are your lifetime figures at this SBR book? im curious what your numbers look like. IF u cant grow ur betpoints by using a +EV formula thats ever adapting to the true odds thats ever changing in this world, then u cant ever grow a real single dollar and will always be -EV.

I think its a valid argument to show some real bets but even if I did it takes way way too long to have enough to even matter. you show me 1 member here with a record that has over 5000 documented bets and is +. yes there may be 1 or 2 but in reality that is just SB and nothing else.

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 03:15 PM

it is crazy hard to prove success to me and yourself in this game.
you need 1000s of wagers and that still could be SB

**MikeTizzy** · 12-03-18, 03:24 PM

you are clueless man, u need to study shit that actually matters. Like market science, game theory, and understanding 1 sport and all the ins and outs/ fundamentals / dynamics of that particular sport. Then you gotta understand the meaning of perceived value, false value and true values. You also need to under psychology. Then u can create formulas and equations based on shit that actually matters. Then u gotta test and test them and adapt to dynamic shifts and changes. How about you try to become friends with a oddsmaker or dealer of a particular market. Maybe u will learn something +EV for once.

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 03:31 PM

thank you I will take your advice on a few of those things, I think it is so funny that you think it is important to even know what sport is even being played.
Market science, game theory, sure both good things. I am a semi successful comparable analyzer, this is what I did for a living until about 6 months ago when i retired. I have determined market value of not readily available valuable items. I think comparative approach is very effective in sports as well as anything else and that is exactly how I create my lines and beat the line. I am 46 years old and did work on comparative analysis for nearly 20 years it is how I survived but yeah I will work on a clue brother!

**tsty** · 12-03-18, 09:19 PM

Its either fake or you made it up

Im going with the latter

**tsty** · 12-03-18, 09:22 PM

So you are 46 yo and retired?

Why are you doing this then?

If its not for the money then what?

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by tsty

Its either fake or you made it up

Im going with the latter

I wish that was true but unfortunately it is not!

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by tsty

So you are 46 yo and retired?

Why are you doing this then?

If its not for the money then what?

why am I doing what?

**TommieGunshot** · 12-03-18, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

the thing is for me it has to be super luck because its just way too high a winning %62 come on I never even heard of anyone even close to something like that the best I ever even heard of is like 53 54%

I have about two or three streaks every year where I win 120 or more out of 200 (counting only -110 or -105 lines). Make a million bets and it will happen hundreds of times (along with a near equal amount of streaks to the losing side).

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

I have about two or three streaks every year where I win 120 or more out of 200 (counting only -110 or -105 lines). Make a million bets and it will happen hundreds of times (along with a near equal amount of streaks to the losing side).

understood and the experts I have asked all say it is just the luck bucket or SB. I just think its fricken nuts got me again too

OVER 156 Michigan State

HoustonRockets -0 1H

Rutgers ML

Los Angeles Clippers +2

Washington Wizards -2

he only had 5 today but it is not looking good for me so far!

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 09:55 PM

he is gonna probably beat me in 4 out of 5 and the 5th is a +600 dog that he lost LOL

**danshan11** · 12-03-18, 10:22 PM

he got me 4 out of 5, I think I am going to post them daily until the tide changes, there is no way he can keep winning like this!

**Bsims** · 12-04-18, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

no at fairlay you have no idea who is matching orders. it is great because it is 100% anonymous

If this is true, how do you know his record?

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 12-04-18, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

I have about two or three streaks every year where I win 120 or more out of 200 (counting only -110 or -105 lines).

Yeah, was just about to say exactly the same thing. I've had three streaks like that in the last six months - great fun while it's happening of course, but the monster downer between streaks 2 and 3 wasn't so amusing (using exactly the same method).

**danshan11** · 12-04-18, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by Bsims

If this is true, how do you know his record?

I am doing this from BT not fairlay. I am not doing markets on fairlay anymore, there are no bettors there and the lines are really tight

I would put up markets on fairlay and only get a few bets, it was not worth it , to make any really money you got to get way more activity.
Same reasons overcome variance and get volume high enough you make some money!

the only people who use fairlay are programs trying to find arbs and looking for stale lines from manually added orders. There is very few real bettors, so no juice givers to take from!

**Bsims** · 12-04-18, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

I am doing this from BT not fairlay. I am not doing markets on fairlay anymore, there are no bettors there and the lines are really tight

I would put up markets on fairlay and only get a few bets, it was not worth it , to make any really money you got to get way more activity.
Same reasons overcome variance and get volume high enough you make some money!

the only people who use fairlay are programs trying to find arbs and looking for stale lines from manually added orders. There is very few real bettors, so no juice givers to take from!

What is BT? Hope you are doing well. It is a shame about Fairlay. They really need to clean up their interface.

**danshan11** · 12-04-18, 12:27 PM

fairlay is still awesome to bet personally but sucks for market making, BT is betting talk

**danshan11** · 12-04-18, 02:53 PM

I asked Joseph B about that record and he said the following

"If he has no skill then no chance (1 in about 10 trillion). If he has the skill of a 53% handicapper then it's about 1 in 100 million. If he's one of the world's best with a 57% base rate then it's still about 1 in 1,000. So basically no, not a hope. If he does, he's cheating."

I did not even know there was such thing as a long term 57% winner, WOW wouldnt that be something fricken amazing

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 12-04-18, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I asked Joseph B about that record and he said the following

"If he has no skill then no chance (1 in about 10 trillion). If he has the skill of a 53% handicapper then it's about 1 in 100 million. If he's one of the world's best with a 57% base rate then it's still about 1 in 1,000. So basically no, not a hope. If he does, he's cheating."

That's way off, so looked at his tweets - those probabilities he's referring to are the chances of hitting 62% after 1000 plays, not after 181.