What's your best tool to help get an edge?

**u21c3f6** · 12-19-18, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

but you are missing the point, guys on SBR dont care about the line, they can flat ass pick winners, so what is the difference between -1500 or -150000 if they only pick winners, if you knew I mean knew they were gonna win does the line matter? if you knew would you bet the loser if the line was a certain number?

Danshan, you are a main reason why I don't want to post. You appear to be unable to have a rational discussion as well as you try to twist everyone else's posts back to your singular point of view. Bottom line is, nothing is as cut and dried as you seem to think no matter how many times you repeat it.

Where do you come up with the idea that posters including myself ever claimed that they only pick winners? And are you really trying to equate a line of -1500 to -150000? Of course, that is ridiculous.

There is so much that you are unable to consider because of your singular belief that the line is always 50/50. Until you allow yourself to think (this is the "think" tank) outside the box, I feel that you will hurt your chances for success.

Joe.

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 01:47 PM

someone answer this question
assume the line is -105, how many guys (out of 1000 guys) can pick ATS winners long term(5000 bets) and be profitable against that line with no line movement that is the bet line and closing line -105?

**yak merchant** · 12-19-18, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

someone answer this question
assume the line is -105, how many guys (out of 1000 guys) can pick ATS winners long term(5000 bets) and be profitable against that line with no line movement that is the bet line and closing line -105?

How many can run a 4 minute mile? How many can touch their nose with their toungue. How many wear women’s underwear? All about as answerable as your question without large datasets and quantifiable results. And yes you posting every two minutes about how nobody on the planet could possibly be a long term winner is getting super old. I feel like it’s a worse rerun of the Huy posts from a couple of years ago. Just because you can’t do it doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by yak merchant

How many can run a 4 minute mile? How many can touch their nose with their toungue. How many wear women’s underwear? All about as answerable as your question without large datasets and quantifiable results. And yes you posting every two minutes about how nobody on the planet could possibly be a long term winner is getting super old. I feel like it’s a worse rerun of the Huy posts from a couple of years ago. Just because you can’t do it doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.

how do you do long term ATS at -105?

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

someone answer this question
assume the line is -105, how many guys (out of 1000 guys) can pick ATS winners long term(5000 bets) and be profitable against that line with no line movement that is the bet line and closing line -105?

OK, if I show you someone who has done this, documented on a neutral site over the past 2 years will you finally shut up? Seriously, you act like it is completely impossible, you remind of JJGold who preaches nothing but a loser, degen mentality, exactly what the books want, which btw is exactly what SBR wants. Your theory about flipping a coin 5000 times with -105 odds is so freaking annoying and so far away from what is possible and what is/can be done!!

Again, here's the deal; I show you who and you stop?

Here are his stats:

5463 picks
+111 units
avg odds around -108 (don't have time to calculate)

Deal?

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by u21c3f6

Danshan, you are a main reason why I don't want to post. You appear to be unable to have a rational discussion as well as you try to twist everyone else's posts back to your singular point of view. Bottom line is, nothing is as cut and dried as you seem to think no matter how many times you repeat it.

Where do you come up with the idea that posters including myself ever claimed that they only pick winners? And are you really trying to equate a line of -1500 to -150000? Of course, that is ridiculous.

There is so much that you are unable to consider because of your singular belief that the line is always 50/50. Until you allow yourself to think (this is the "think" tank) outside the box, I feel that you will hurt your chances for success.

Joe.

This man knows what he is talking about!

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by Charlies_Hustle2

OK, if I show you someone who has done this, documented on a neutral site over the past 2 years will you finally shut up? Seriously, you act like it is completely impossible, you remind of JJGold who preaches nothing but a loser, degen mentality, exactly what the books want, which btw is exactly what SBR wants. Your theory about flipping a coin 5000 times with -105 odds is so freaking annoying and so far away from what is possible and what is/can be done!!

Again, here's the deal; I show you who and you stop?

Here are his stats:

5463 picks
+111 units
avg odds around -108 (don't have time to calculate)

Deal?

the question would be how did this person do against the closing line, did he beat the line by 2% +margin as well?

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by Charlies_Hustle2

This man knows what he is talking about!

yes I agree he is very smart, never doubted that and there are some real smart posters here that is why I waste my time posting and learning. I learn a ton but I dont just accept it is because I said so!

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

the question would be how did this person do against the closing line, did he beat the line by 2% +margin as well?

Oh my fücking god! Are you serious? Do you want his secret sauce while I'm at it????

Dude, I provide the link and you stop??? Deal?

So basically to everyone else; if he says no, he is a confirmed troll and I highly recommend to just put him on ignore.

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 02:18 PM

Who gives a fück by how much % he beat the closing line! You either beat it or you don't! Please accept the offer

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 02:23 PM

provide the link and I will still ask if he beat the line by that 2% if the link does not provide that

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 02:26 PM

I believe people can beat the line and win, I am struggling with and dont know that they can win long term and not beat the line, I have never seen it and cant find anything to support that. there are tons of guys and as you know a few out of 100 will win even against the line over 5000 bets, its like saying I won 60% of 5000 coin flips, that does not make me think you are a good coin flipper or have any skill, you still are just lucky. now with that said, I do believe there are people who can win long term and dont care about the line, not sure how or why, but Jets says it best "just win baby win" everytime I start telling him about beating the line is the only way, he tells me "just win baby win" hard argument to beat since he does win seems like always!

**tsty** · 12-19-18, 02:32 PM

lol there is literally no way to prove that because you will never know what the real closing line is

just watch the last few minutes of any market and you will know that

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 12-19-18, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

its like saying I won 60% of 5000 coin flips, that does not make me think you are a good coin flipper or have any skill, you still are just lucky.

The chance of that is one in 4545 trillion.

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 02:36 PM

oh ok so now the argument is we never know what the closing line is, LOL, you dont think the closing line published is the closing line? and if not why? and do you believe in the moon landing ?

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

The chance of that is one in 4545 trillion.

so you say there is a chance !

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

provide the link and I will still ask if he beat the line by that 2% if the link does not provide that

Imposible. I know of zero sites out there that actaully tracks that and you know that.

You asked for proof, I promised proof but the deal is that you stop. YOu ask for more, ask for something which is impossible to prove. If your curiosity was genuine, you'd be happy with what I am offering to provide.

Obvious troll is so obvious.

One more time; I provide the link and you stop. No more questions, just stop. That right there will be your proof that it is possible.

Deal or no deal?

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 02:59 PM

is it possible to have that record, yes it is very possible. I dont know the chances but it is very possible, my question is only do those numbers come from awesome picker or beating the line, that is my question

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

is it possible to have that record, yes it is very possible. I dont know the chances but it is very possible, my question is only do those numbers come from awesome picker or beating the line, that is my question

Well, if he is winning he is beating the line! Impossible to track by how much.

Deal or no deal? Do you want the link or not?

He also offer free SDQL tutoring btw, something you might be interested in. But again, I'm not sahring anything until you commit

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:08 PM

commit to what?

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

commit to what?

The deal: I provide the link, you stop asking the same damn question! Do the entire forum a huge favor and please accept/commit.

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by Charlies_Hustle2

Well, if he is winning he is beating the line! Impossible to track by how much.

Deal or no deal? Do you want the link or not?

He also offer free SDQL tutoring btw, something you might be interested in. But again, I'm not sahring anything until you commit

I am actually getting a little confused what are we arguing about? you are saying he beats the line and wins, I think if that is what you are saying we agree.

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I am actually getting a little confused what are we arguing about? you are saying he beats the line and wins, I think if that is what you are saying we agree.

You asked the following:

someone answer this question
assume the line is -105, how many guys (out of 1000 guys) can pick ATS winners long term(5000 bets) and be profitable against that line with no line movement that is the bet line and closing line -105?

My response was:

--
OK, if I show you someone who has done this, documented on a neutral site over the past 2 years will you finally shut up? Seriously, you act like it is completely impossible, you remind of JJGold who preaches nothing but a loser, degen mentality, exactly what the books want, which btw is exactly what SBR wants. Your theory about flipping a coin 5000 times with -105 odds is so freaking annoying and so far away from what is possible and what is/can be done!!

Again, here's the deal; I show you who and you stop?

Here are his stats:

5463 picks
+111 units
avg odds around -108 (don't have time to calculate)

Deal?
--

You doubt that it is possible and argue nothing more than that. I will provide proof that it is possible. in return I simply want you to stop asking the same damn question: ---> ready for that same damn question you keep on asking --->>> HERE IT IS "Is it possible to beat the closing line, long term"

So once again, I will prove that it is possible, you stop asking that question.

Deal or no deal?

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:23 PM

of course it is possible to beat the line long term, i never questioned that. you can beat the line long term and win of course. I am sorry i confused you. iMO successful long term winners beat the closing line consistently and beating the line is not just a symptom of winning it is the formula, that is what I am saying. I do not believe a person who bets 5000 games at -105 and it closes at -105 is a long term winner

i think the difference in opinion of me and some smart guys here is
I think you need to beat the line by more than margin to be a long term winner
others think and honestly some I think are smart guys
they think beating the line is a symptom of being good at picking winners but not a necessity in winning long term.

I think this is the fundamental difference in opinion only, sorry for the confusion.

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

of course it is possible to beat the line long term, i never questioned that. you can beat the line long term and win of course. I am sorry i confused you. iMO successful long term winners beat the closing line consistently and beating the line is not just a symptom of winning it is the formula, that is what I am saying. I do not believe a person who bets 5000 games at -105 and it closes at -105 is a long term winner

That's what you think but something you can't prove. Simply something you think or believe in. So why even argue???? Why even ask the question. Worst than one of those douchebags arguing about religion...

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:32 PM

I think you can easily prove that beating the line is a winning formula, it is very simple to prove.

Cardinals 2018	bet	to win	spent	won	net
real line -120	120	100	19440	19360	-80
with a dime -110	110	100	17820	19360	1540

\
i think this is what your typical long term winning pro does, buy cheap, I dont think they focus on picking winners, they find value in the line not pick winners

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:36 PM

share your link, I want to see what you are talking about, please

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:41 PM

I dont see anything, I cant find it just PM me the link or just paste the screenshot here not the URL

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by Charlies_Hustle2

Just google my name, drop the 2 and add blog, then go to archive. Since going paid "he" has been breakeven on there, up 17 units on twitter because that blog wont allow him to play teases. Anyway, go to archive, then all time. See for yourself

so this is you? you are a tout? LOL

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

so this is you? you are a tout? LOL

I didn't say that and will not comment on those types of questions. Pretty sure it's against forum rules...

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:48 PM

dude that is funny, this guy (not you) is selling picks for basically $2 each, LMAO, that is funny, why would you listen to this clown,

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:50 PM

Charlie dude you are literally the funniest dude, I ever met here, good to meet you! Another tout is about. Back to the discussion..... move on Charlie please

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:56 PM

tsty where are you? always asking me questions but never answering any, help us out here brother!

**danshan11** · 12-19-18, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by u21c3f6

Danshan, you are a main reason why I don't want to post. You appear to be unable to have a rational discussion as well as you try to twist everyone else's posts back to your singular point of view. Bottom line is, nothing is as cut and dried as you seem to think no matter how many times you repeat it.

Where do you come up with the idea that posters including myself ever claimed that they only pick winners? And are you really trying to equate a line of -1500 to -150000? Of course, that is ridiculous.

There is so much that you are unable to consider because of your singular belief that the line is always 50/50. Until you allow yourself to think (this is the "think" tank) outside the box, I feel that you will hurt your chances for success.

Joe.

Hey Joe thanks for the insight and I do apologize I offend you with my posting style. I think you are a sharp guy, I just wish you would say more and put some writing in concrete instead of the vague stuff. show me please where I am wrong, show me the dumb thinking? help me out, I really would value your opinion and again do apologize for not thinking like you think or whatever it is I am doing wrong. I hope you success and of course me too! but please any help would be appreciated but be concrete please!

**Charlies_Hustle2** · 12-19-18, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

dude that is funny, this guy (not you) is selling picks for basically $2 each, LMAO, that is funny, why would you listen to this clown,

Yeah, that guy is basically giving out picks for free. He doesn't need to do what he does, ask anyone who knows who he is. Find someone on twitter talking shit about him. Go ahead, find one!