Information opening line vs closing line - calculating average % CLV

[cyp213]

Hello,

I'm trying to find as much information as possible about betting, according to bookies opening lines in order to beat their respective closing line. I think it is very crucial aspect about winning at sports betting that most bettor are not even aware of. It is very hard to find information about the topic simply because most bettor who calculates their average cents differential per play or average % differential per play they beat the closing line just don't want to share that kind of information and they are doing it mostly for themselves. I do myself for almost 1 year and I notice that I'm beating closing line around 65% of the time averaging 4 cents profits per play which in my opinion is not enough to show relevant gradual profit in time.

-How much time %, after big sample, do you think you should beat the closing line to show relevancy for this stats according to your profits/losses?

-How much % average per play, after big sample, do you think you should beat the closing line to show relevancy for this stats according to your profits/losses?

After I've done my own research I was about to conclude that beating the closing line after very big sample size will be more sustainable/profitable compare to your plays where you finished behind the closing line or on the line.

Please tell me what do you think about the subject and if/how you can help to enforce my researches,

Thank you.

[semibluff]

Learn to cap events that interest you. If you can't cap then gambling is just a hobby that will cost you money. What you are trying to do is bet on an outcome when the odds will pay you more than than the true probability of that outcome occurring. If you bet on an event 2 days early you should be analysing is what will happen in that event based on all information available at that the time you bet. If you bet 5 minutes before the event starts you are still trying to do the same thing. What happens to the line after you bet is out of your control. You sound as though you're trying to guess what the public will bet on before they actually do.

[danshan11]

oh my favorite subject, I bet no one knew I was gonna chime in on this one, LOL

First off the basics
What line? Pinnacle because they are usually assumed to be the most efficient.
What is beating the line mean? you need to understand that if the margin on a game is say 2% total you need to beat the line by the side you are betting on that sides margin lets assume the margin is equal not favorite longshot bias.
so the line is -104 -104 when you bet so you need the line to move to -108 to BREAK EVEN and any lower is just profit
Why do we need to beat the line

Lets say you bet -104 1000 times (assuming a 1% margin) that means you expect to win 500 times
so you bet -104 and it closes -104 1000 bets you win 500 times you bet 1040 units and you net 1020 units so you lose the margin of 20 units

now in this example we beat the line
you bet -104 1000 times this time but this time it closes at -110 each time
you bet 1040 units but now since it closed at -110 you win 514 times you win 1048 units and you net 8 units profit

so you can see why beating the line is so important

in general you want to beat the line 75ish% of the time and you need to beat it by more than the margin at least 50% of the time

[danshan11]

I forgot to calculate CLV
use a margin calculator to get the true implied win percentage of your game
get the implied win % of your bet odds
get the implied win % of your closing odds
get the margin from the margin calculator
and that gives you the net CLV

[cyp213]

I use advanced model where I can calculate my own probabilities to find value % edge and I'm testing out on the market early numbers and somehow that's the numbers I have where I beat the closing line because I track all my bet numbers and compare with closing line value. I see that this numbers is going up gradually which is kinda interesting to me, I read about that Pinnacle article where they show that you need to beat the closing line 75% or more to profit, but beating the line 75% of the time is not an absolute. Let's say I can beat that much time but only winning like 1-2 cents per play while others could make 5-6-7 cents per play. How much cents on average per play do you think is necessary to show gradual profit. I'm profiting from this method but somehow this is very hard working process for small profit so far.

[cyp213]

Don't get me wrong Danshan11 I understand all these concept, what I'm looking for is more information about the topic and if somehow someone else is doing the same thing so we can compare. Your second post is interesting but give me an example how will you do it?
thank you.

[danshan11]

I use advanced model where I can calculate my own probabilities to find value % edge and I'm testing out on the market early numbers and somehow that's the numbers I have where I beat the closing line because I track all my bet numbers and compare with closing line value. I see that this numbers is going up gradually which is kinda interesting to me, I read about that Pinnacle article where they show that you need to beat the closing line 75% or more to profit, but beating the line 75% of the time is not an absolute. Let's say I can beat that much time but only winning like 1-2 cents per play while others could make 5-6-7 cents per play. How much cents on average per play do you think is necessary to show gradual profit. I'm profiting from this method but somehow this is very hard working process for small profit so far.

what in the world do you mean when you say 1-2 cents? are you talking about -110 to -112 being 2 cents? I have no idea what that means

[cyp213]

Yes -110 to -112 is 2 cents indeed.

[danshan11]

dont worry about cents convert those to implied win probability to determine your beating the line or commonly referred to as CLV

[cyp213]

I agree with you semibluff but if you bet 5 minutes before the game you are taking the updated price from the bookies and you will have hard time to beat the closing line taking a bet 5 minutes before it closes. I can project my own probabilities of an outcome according to teams and sometimes players statistics doing regression analysis throughout many year of compiled stats. Do you have an idea why and how the line is moving from opening to closing? If you consider teams numbers you will see they have much more impact on a bookies line than you might think on the long term and you can indeed beat the closing line more often than being beat. What remains yet to see for me is if it's relevant enough for being profitable strategy on very long term. After more than 4000 bets it is but not enough according to my standards about time devotion etc...

[cyp213]

Why I should not worry? someone can beat the line on the same % rate let's say 75% but ones beat the line by average of 8cents per play while the other only average 2cents per play, I think all the profit differential remains here unless I'm mistaken.

[danshan11]

Why I should not worry? someone can beat the line on the same % rate let's say 75% but ones beat the line by average of 8cents per play while the other only average 2cents per play, I think all the profit differential remains here unless I'm mistaken.

why dont worry about cents
because -240 to -238 is a big difference than -102 to -104 HUGE difference and both are 2 cents

[cyp213]

You don't get it Dan what if I average 75% beating the closing and you average 75% but I average 10 cents per play after 100000bets and you average 2 cents per play it means that for each play I made I'm gaining 10 cents better over the market while you only gain 2 cents, you wouldn't worry much because you are beating the line 75% of the time? I don't get it. Let's say I pick -135 and the line close at -145 I after I made 100000bets; that's my average profit on the closing line while you take -135 but you close -137 after you made 100000bets. What you are telling me is that you wouldn't worry because you are beating the line 75% right? Following that statement which doesnt matter would basically mean beating the line 75% is somewhat irrelevant, don't you think so? What if you beat the line 75% of the time but you only average 0.5cents per play, I don't think you will profit that much.

Please can you show me an example about your 2nd post, it'll very much appreciated, thank you.

[danshan11]

we dont track the CLV that way we do it with implied probability

-110 is 52.38% implied
-112 is 52.83% implied
this is 2 cents and that is .45%
now
-175 is 63.64% implied
-177 is 63.90% implied
this is 2 cents and is .26%

the first example is nearly double the value of the second one and both are 2 cents. this is without margin dont forget that

[danshan11]

example of which post? quote it and I will give an example of it, thanks

[danshan11]

you need to make sure you are not just beating the line you need to beat the line by more than the margin and if you dont beat the line by more than the margin 1000s and 1000s of times you run the real risk of variance causing you to still lose.

[cyp213]

we dont track the CLV that way we do it with implied probability

-110 is 52.38% implied
-112 is 52.83% implied
this is 2 cents and that is .45%
now
-175 is 63.64% implied
-177 is 63.90% implied
this is 2 cents and is .26%

the first example is nearly double the value of the second one and both are 2 cents. this is without margin dont forget that

Well you just answered yourself, if my average 10 cents while yours is 2 cents after that much bets averaging odds of -110

-110 = 52.38%
-120 = 54.55% Closing line average after 100000bets

I gain the difference long term in % because it's my average play, isn't it? which mean 10cents if you average -110 line and averaging 10 cents per play on closing line at this very price. I gain 2.17%

-110 = 52.38%
-112 = 52.83% Closing line average after 100000bets

You gain the difference long term in % because it's your average play, isn't it? which mean 2cents if you average -110 line and averaging 2 cents per play on closing line at this very price. you gain 0.45%

Now what you are telling me it's that % gained doesn't matter? I rather it's the entire profit we are talking about here.

I'm aware about huge favorite line you have to gain more which implies underdog line you can gain less.

[cyp213]

I forgot to calculate CLV
use a margin calculator to get the true implied win percentage of your game
get the implied win % of your bet odds
get the implied win % of your closing odds
get the margin from the margin calculator
and that gives you the net CLV

Example here

[danshan11]

ok lets do yesterdays dodgers game

Arizona was +117 and the Dodgers were -127 so we see from this the margin was 2.04%
Arizona was +117 and true probability was 45.16%
LA was -127 and true probability was 54.84%

now lets say we bet LA at -107 that is 51.69%

so we bet at 51.69% and the true probability at close was 54.84%
we have net clv of 54.84 - 51.59 which is CLV (we beat the line) 3.25%

[cyp213]

you need to make sure you are not just beating the line you need to beat the line by more than the margin and if you dont beat the line by more than the margin 1000s and 1000s of times you run the real risk of variance causing you to still lose.

Well my model actually gives me % in term of pure teams/players numbers so when I think I have reasonable edge % differential I bet and somehow I'm gradually beating the closing line, is that luck? If one side is -175 the other side +190 the margin is 15 cents right? What if you take the side at +190 but numbers line worth actually +125. How will you calculate the margin I paid for?

[danshan11]

calculating actual margin is harder and more complex it is easier to just use a margin calculator, sbr might have one if not just google pinnacle margin calculator

[cyp213]

ok lets do yesterdays dodgers game

Arizona was +117 and the Dodgers were -127 so we see from this the margin was 2.04%

Arizona was +117 and true probability was 45.16%
LA was -127 and true probability was 54.84%

now lets say we bet LA at -107 that is 51.69%

so we bet at 51.69% and the true probability at close was 54.84%
we have net clv of 54.84 - 51.59 which is CLV (we beat the line) 3.25%

I got you but 2.04% also worth 10cents I think we are talking about same thing here. I actually took Dodgers -110 on opening line and on Pinnacle it closes at -127

Do same example... according to my calculation I beat the line by 6.70% for a 12 cents profits differential.
Beating the line at this frequency or at 0.1% do actually matter that's what I'm trying to say here while you say it's only cents and it does not matter that's why you are confusing me.

Now my question is what % rate would be reasonable on average basis to win gradually while you and me still can beat the line at the same frequency which is 75%.

[danshan11]

Well my model actually gives me % in term of pure teams/players numbers so when I think I have reasonable edge % differential I bet and somehow I'm gradually beating the closing line, is that luck? If one side is -175 the other side +190 the margin is 15 cents right? What if you take the side at +190 but numbers line worth actually +125. How will you calculate the margin I paid for?

as far as luck goes sure its luck, if you dont have 1000s and 1000s of records it is probably luck but the way to kinda say its not luck is by beating the line by more than the margin at a high rate.

you must do 2 things
A beat the line by more than margin
B have 1000s and 1000s of games to overcome the variance bug

[danshan11]

I got you but 2.04% also worth 10cents I think we are talking about same thing here.

honestly I dont have a clue what you mean by cents or why you are using cents as a measuring stick but if you ended up with 3.25% on that game you did it right!

[cyp213]

calculating actual margin is harder and more complex it is easier to just use a margin calculator, sbr might have one if not just google pinnacle margin calculator

I have my own sheets sir very complex and elaborated, I'm not seeking advice, I'm seeking information about opening/closing average%rate and average cents differential requirements.

[danshan11]

read this maybe this will help you

http://www.football-data.co.uk/The_Wisdom_of_the_Crowd_updated.pdf

[cyp213]

honestly I dont have a clue what you mean by cents or why you are using cents as a measuring stick but if you ended up with 3.25% on that game you did it right!

It's because cents means % too

[danshan11]

It's because cents means % too

I dont know how it means the same thing but OK. ask me 1 question and I will try and answer it because I am getting confused

[cyp213]

How can you insert capture from your computer, is it possible?

[cyp213]

It's because cents means % too

Because I want to know my average return after very big sample size.

[cyp213]

honestly I dont have a clue what you mean by cents or why you are using cents as a measuring stick but if you ended up with 3.25% on that game you did it right!

Because I want to know my average return vs closing line on after big sample size and try to find efficient rate return.

[cyp213]

read this maybe this will help you
http://www.football-data.co.uk/The_W...wd_updated.pdf

Thank you

[danshan11]

Because I want to know my average return vs closing line on after big sample size and try to find efficient rate return.

I dont know what any of that means,maybe you can get someone else to help you with that but I have no clue what that is

[cyp213]

I dont know what any of that means,maybe you can get someone else to help you with that but I have no clue what that is

Thank you for your time sir and as I can see your are alone so far who can talk about the topic.

[danshan11]

no not true many guys have better working knowledge on line value than me, it is literally the backbone of sports betting