Converting MLB Fave Line to Probability

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  • gfree
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-18-08
    • 21

    #1
    Converting MLB Fave Line to Probability
    I have historical MLB closing lines from various sportsbooks. The lines I have only contain the moneyline of the favorite. What would be the most accurate way of converting these to the true probability? Should I just assume true dimelines?
  • FreeFall
    SBR MVP
    • 02-20-08
    • 3365

    #2
    Do they mention which book it's from?
    Comment
    • gfree
      SBR Rookie
      • 12-18-08
      • 21

      #3
      The lines and from donbest and are from a number of books (CRIS, pinnacle, greek, matchbook, etc.)
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        That's a problem as those books have different linesets.
        Comment
        • LT Profits
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-27-06
          • 90963

          #5
          Oh wait, if you mean you have lines from EACH of those books for each game, then Pinny is 8 cents and CRIS and Greek are 20 cents. Ignore Matchbook.
          Comment
          • gfree
            SBR Rookie
            • 12-18-08
            • 21

            #6
            Thanks. So for pinnacle, I would find the theoretical hold of a -104/-104 set of lines as 1.92%. Then just subtract 0.96% from each implied probability that I got from the moneyline favorites?

            Also, do you know if the hold has stayed consistent through the years? Has pinnacle always had an 8 cent MLB line?
            Comment
            • MonkeyF0cker
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 06-12-07
              • 12144

              #7
              No, gfree. See this post from Ganch: http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...rcentages.html

              You'll need to do this individually for each line as the hold is different for each line with the same vig (in terms of cents). The hold for a -120 favorite on an 8 cent line is only 1.69%. You also wouldn't simply subtract it from the implied probabilities anyway as the hold becomes heavy on the side of the favorite with longer odds.
              Comment
              • MonkeyF0cker
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 06-12-07
                • 12144

                #8
                You'll also need to note the breakoff points for each book of when the vig (in cents) is increased.
                Comment
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