I have historical MLB closing lines from various sportsbooks. The lines I have only contain the moneyline of the favorite. What would be the most accurate way of converting these to the true probability? Should I just assume true dimelines?
Converting MLB Fave Line to Probability
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gfreeSBR Rookie
- 12-18-08
- 21
#1Converting MLB Fave Line to ProbabilityTags: None -
FreeFallSBR MVP
- 02-20-08
- 3365
#2Do they mention which book it's from?Comment -
gfreeSBR Rookie
- 12-18-08
- 21
#3The lines and from donbest and are from a number of books (CRIS, pinnacle, greek, matchbook, etc.)Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
#4That's a problem as those books have different linesets.Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
#5Oh wait, if you mean you have lines from EACH of those books for each game, then Pinny is 8 cents and CRIS and Greek are 20 cents. Ignore Matchbook.Comment -
gfreeSBR Rookie
- 12-18-08
- 21
#6Thanks. So for pinnacle, I would find the theoretical hold of a -104/-104 set of lines as 1.92%. Then just subtract 0.96% from each implied probability that I got from the moneyline favorites?
Also, do you know if the hold has stayed consistent through the years? Has pinnacle always had an 8 cent MLB line?Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#7No, gfree. See this post from Ganch: http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...rcentages.html
You'll need to do this individually for each line as the hold is different for each line with the same vig (in terms of cents). The hold for a -120 favorite on an 8 cent line is only 1.69%. You also wouldn't simply subtract it from the implied probabilities anyway as the hold becomes heavy on the side of the favorite with longer odds.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#8You'll also need to note the breakoff points for each book of when the vig (in cents) is increased.Comment
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