Converting MLB Fave Line to Probability

**FreeFall** · 07-01-09, 02:56 PM

Do they mention which book it's from?

**gfree** · 07-01-09, 07:52 PM

The lines and from donbest and are from a number of books (CRIS, pinnacle, greek, matchbook, etc.)

**LT Profits** · 07-01-09, 09:52 PM

That's a problem as those books have different linesets.

**LT Profits** · 07-01-09, 09:55 PM

Oh wait, if you mean you have lines from EACH of those books for each game, then Pinny is 8 cents and CRIS and Greek are 20 cents. Ignore Matchbook.

**gfree** · 07-02-09, 12:51 PM

Thanks. So for pinnacle, I would find the theoretical hold of a -104/-104 set of lines as 1.92%. Then just subtract 0.96% from each implied probability that I got from the moneyline favorites?

Also, do you know if the hold has stayed consistent through the years? Has pinnacle always had an 8 cent MLB line?

**MonkeyF0cker** · 07-03-09, 03:45 AM

No, gfree. See this post from Ganch: http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...rcentages.html

You'll need to do this individually for each line as the hold is different for each line with the same vig (in terms of cents). The hold for a -120 favorite on an 8 cent line is only 1.69%. You also wouldn't simply subtract it from the implied probabilities anyway as the hold becomes heavy on the side of the favorite with longer odds.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 07-03-09, 03:47 AM

You'll also need to note the breakoff points for each book of when the vig (in cents) is increased.