Delusional or what?

[MonkeyF0cker]

You are simply misinformed.

Most successful traders make their living by applying solid trading principals and reacting to market developments rather than predicting market direction. Library can be filled with books on this subject.

Those who try to live by predictive models, (LTCM, MF GLOBAL is the beginning of a very long list) failed spectacularly.

Again, statements like "so many day hedge fund and derivative traders and firms make their living almost exclusively using predictive models" simply show that you have very little clue on a subject.
Someone mentioned "Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager somewhere in this forum.
Try to read this book for starters and see for yourself what best traders of our generation have to say about value of prediction.

Yeah. Ok. I guess I didn't WORK for a QUANTITATIVE TRADING FIRM on the CBOE or anything. LOL.

Econometrics is ONLY taught for fun. LOL.

You're an idiot.

[hutennis]

Ask any asset manager at any firm in the world if markets are efficient. They'll look at you with an "Are you stupid?" face and ask you how you think they've had their job for 20 years.

They have their job for 20 years by skillfully selling shitty products to unsophisticated lambs not by predicting market direction.
Next time you see one, ask him, how come 9 out of 10 of these "best of breed" can not outperform computer at any given year and 9 out of 10 who can can not do it 2 years in a row?

[hutennis]

Yeah. Ok. I guess I didn't WORK for a QUANTITATIVE TRADING FIRM on the CBOE or anything. LOL.

Econometrics is ONLY taught for fun. LOL.

Is your employment record supposed to count as a prove that Richard Denis and Paul Tudor are wrong?

You're an idiot.

That I've already heard.
Anything to the point?

[MonkeyF0cker]

They have their job for 20 years by skillfully selling shitty products to unsophisticated lambs not by predicting market direction.
Next time you see one, ask him, how come 9 out of 10 of these "best of breed" can not outperform computer at any given year and 9 out of 10 who can can not do it 2 years in a row?

Just shut up while you're behind. Spend your time reading a book or twelve instead. You need it.

There is nothing worse than posturing know-nothings like you.

[hutennis]

Just shut up while you're behind. Spend your time reading a book or twelve instead. You need it.

There is nothing worse than posturing know-nothings like you.

Can you answer the question for them instead of reducing yourself to personal attacks out of desperation?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Is your employment record supposed to count as a prove that Richard Denis and Paul Tudor are wrong?



That I've already heard.
Anything to the point?

What in the fukk are you talking about? You are one stupid motherfukker. I WORKED IN THE FUKKING FIELD, YOU GODDAMN MORON. You read something from some stupid fukking interview and you think you know how shit works??? LMAO.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Can you answer the question for them instead of reducing yourself to personal attacks out of desperation?

I'm taking back my vote.

Ban this idiot.

[hutennis]

What in the fukk are you talking about? You are one stupid motherfukker. I WORKED IN THE FUKKING FIELD, YOU GODDAMN MORON. You read something from some stupid fukking interview and you think you know how shit works??? LMAO.

Now I think I know why you don't work in a field anymore.

[hutennis]

I'm taking back my vote.

Ban this idiot.

Is not it funny?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Now I think I know why you don't work in a field anymore.

Yep. Has nothing to do with keeping 100% of my split, working whenever I want, and making a lot more money.

We're done here. Enjoy your ignorance.

[hutennis]

Yep. Has nothing to do with keeping 100% of my split, working whenever I want, and making a lot more money.

We're done here. Enjoy your ignorance.

Yeah. Ok. I guess I didn't WORK for a QUANTITATIVE TRADING FIRM on the CBOE or anything. LOL.

Econometrics is ONLY taught for fun. LOL.

You're an idiot.

What in the fukk are you talking about? You are one stupid motherfukker. I WORKED IN THE FUKKING FIELD, YOU GODDAMN MORON. You read something from some stupid fukking interview and you think you know how shit works??? LMAO

Just shut up while you're behind. Spend your time reading a book or twelve instead. You need it.

I'm taking back my vote.

Ban this idiot.

I must admit, the above is a collection of most intelligent, very well thought of and eloquent arguments on any subject I have ever heard.

Very persuasive.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Die, moron.

You're lucky I put up with your ignorant ass as long as I did.

Now fukk off.

[hutennis]

Die, moron.

You're lucky I put up with your ignorant ass as long as I did.

Now fukk off.

Another great one!

You must have been a star on debate team somewhere, have you?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Justin,

Ban him, please.

Thanks.

[hutennis]

Justin,

Ban him, please.

Thanks.

Very admirable way to win in a argument.

[Justin7]

Hutennis has been asked to start his own thread, and keep all his posts in that thread (even replies to other threads). Thanks to whoever suggested that earlier.

If he continues to troll, he will be banned. He was clearly trolling here.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Very admirable way to win in a argument.

There is no argument. You're a block-headed moron. You can't even apply the MOST BASIC of economic theories properly. Yet, you want to try to tell ME how traders operate when I lived it for years. LOL.

I'm not wasting any more time on you and I don't think others should have to wade through your ignorant bullshit when this is a QUANTITATIVE forum and you provide nothing but generalized, obtuse rhetoric.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Hutennis has been asked to start his own thread, and keep all his posts in that thread (even replies to other threads). Thanks to whoever suggested that earlier.

If he continues to troll, he will be banned. He was clearly trolling here.

I don't think he's trolling. I think he's really that stupid.

He's tried in the past to make the same misguided point multiple times regarding market efficiency.

[hutennis]

Hutennis has been asked to start his own thread, and keep all his posts in that thread (even replies to other threads). Thanks to whoever suggested that earlier.

If he continues to troll, he will be banned. He was clearly trolling here.

I think I made my point.
Anyone who has enough brains to think for himself can draw his own conclusions. I
If it will help them on their way to become anything more than sacrificial lambs I'll be glad.
Obviously, you know where you can shove your bans.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I think I made my point.
Anyone who has enough brains to think for himself can draw his own conclusions. I
If it will help them on their way to become anything more than sacrificial lambs I'll be glad.

It won't. Anyone that has any clue knows that you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

[hutennis]

It won't. Anyone that has any clue knows that you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

Instead of making personal attacks, try to answer a single point I made, at least.
Start with this one, please:

They have their job for 20 years by skillfully selling shitty products to unsophisticated lambs not by predicting market direction.
Next time you see one, ask him, how come 9 out of 10 of these "best of breed" can not outperform computer at any given year and 9 out of 10 who can can not do it 2 years in a row?

Let me rephrase it. Maybe it will make it easier for you to answer.

How come 9 out of 10 people, whose sole existance, according to you, should be enough prove that markets are predictable can not outperform computer at any given year and 9 out of 10 who can can not do it 2 years in a row?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Instead of making personal attacks, try to answer a single point I made, at least.
Start with this one, please:

They have their job for 20 years by skillfully selling shitty products to unsophisticated lambs not by predicting market direction.
Next time you see one, ask him, how come 9 out of 10 of these "best of breed" can not outperform computer at any given year and 9 out of 10 who can can not do it 2 years in a row?

LOL. That doesn't even make sense. Do you understand how many trades these people have made in 20 years time? Obviously not. There is probably more of a chance that YOU created the universe while taking a dump than their success being attributed to variance.

And how many of these asset managers went up against computers again? Where in the fukking world are you pulling this bullshit from? It is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE for ANYONE to make that statement with any amount of credibility.

Is it my turn to make shit up and have you accept it as truth?

[hutennis]

LOL. That doesn't even make sense. Do you understand how many trades these people have made in 20 years time? Obviously not. There is probably more of a chance that YOU created the universe while taking a dump than their success being attributed to variance.

And how many of these asset managers went up against computers again? Where in the fukking world are you pulling this bullshit from? It is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE for ANYONE to make that statement with any amount of credibility.

Is it my turn to make shit up and have you accept it as truth?

The fact that 9 out of 10 money managers can not beat the market at any given year and 9 out of 10 who can can not do it 2 years in a row is a universally known fact.
You can find it in any beginners book on index investing.

So there is no "success" in beating markets at all.

The personal fortunes they may acquire over the years come from mostly undeserved management fees and commissions or "split"

For uninitiated,
Split commission. (from financial dictionary)
A commission shared between a broker and a financial adviser or other professional who brought the customer to the broker.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The fact that 9 out of 10 money managers can not beat the market at any given year and 9 out of 10 who can can do it 2 years in a row is a universally known fact.
You can find it in any beginners book on index investing.

So there is no "success" in beating markets at all.

The personal fortunes they may acquire over the years come from mostly undeserved management fees and commissions or "split"

For uninitiated,
Split commission. (from financial dictionary)
A commission shared between a broker and a financial adviser or other professional who brought the customer to the broker.

LOL. You have a quote? Surely, you can find one since it's a "universally known fact." That still doesn't apply to asset managers who've had success for 20 years.

How do hedge funds and prop trading firms make money and stay afloat if there is no success in beating markets? LOL.

You obviously don't know what a split is for traders. The split is a commission from PROFITABLE EARNINGS. Part goes to the firm. Part goes to the trader. That's how the firm makes money. That's how traders make money. That's how they keep their job. Through EARNINGS.

[Inkwell77]

Most proponents of efficient theory HYPOTHESIS use the full name. It is called hypothesis or theory for a reason.

There are several questions to consider.

Can I use historical statistics to predict the outcome of a game more accurately than by randomly flipping a coin? Yes, I can based on past results. Can I prove that I can continue to do this? No, I can't.

This is a great statement, and 100% true, but I don't think it should be seen as a negative.
Many things can not be proved and proving something to be true is overrated in a sense, imo.
Can one prove they will wake up tomorrow morning? Can one prove they will stay in love/fall in love?
I think a strong argument could be made the most beautiful things in life can not be proved.
Those interested in laws and hardline ways of thought (TRUE vs true) may have trouble with markets.

[hutennis]

LOL. You have a quote? Surely, you can find one since it's a "universally known fact." That still doesn't apply to asset managers who've had success for 20 years.

How do hedge funds and prop trading firms make money and stay afloat if there is no success in beating markets? LOL.

You obviously don't know what a split is for traders. The split is a commission from PROFITABLE EARNINGS. Part goes to the firm. Part goes to the trader. That's how the firm makes money. That's how traders make money. That's how they keep their job. Through EARNINGS.

Hedge founds, by definition (hedge) are aiming to be delta neutral.
They don't even try to profit from directional trades.
They are arbitragers.

You just keep on making elementary mistakes.
and your best arguments so far are "moron", "go fuk yourself" and "LOLs"

[MonkeyF0cker]

Hedge founds, by definition (hedge) are aiming to be delta neutral.
They don't even try to profit from directional trades.
They are arbitragers.

You just keep on making elementary mistakes.
and your best arguments so far are "moron", "go fuk yourself" and "LOLs"

LMAO. How do you suppose you can profit from delta neutral if the market is efficient?

IT IS ENTIRELY BASED ON PRICE SPECULATION.

Unbelievable. Not to mention that you're pigeon-holing an entire segment of the industry when that's NOT what every hedge fund concentrates on.

Glad you could answer my other questions too. LOL.

You're out of your league, little boy.

[hutennis]

LMAO. How do you suppose you can profit from delta neutral if the market is efficient?

IT IS ENTIRELY BASED ON PRICE SPECULATION.

Unbelievable.

Glad you could answer my other questions too. LOL.

You're out of your league, little boy.

I don't think so.

And you are wrong again.

As semi-strong form of EMH predicts, very small and short-lived inefficiencies do exist in a market for those with superior information gathering methods. Another words, you can find opportunities for arbitrage in stock market or in SB for that matter.
You just need to know what and where to look for and be very fast.

It has nothing to do with predicting future results based on data from the past or price speculation though.

You really don't know all that or just playing dummy out of desperation?

[cyberbabble]

hutennis -

I know this is off topic, but I would be interested in your answer.
If OP of this thread said "Thank you for your opinion. Would you please not post in this thread again." would you stop posting in this thread?

[MonkeyF0cker]

I don't think so.

And you are wrong again.

As semi-strong form of EMH predicts, very small and short-lived inefficiencies do exist in a market for those with superior information gathering methods. Another words, you can find opportunities for arbitrage in stock market or in SB for that matter.
You just need to know what and where to look for and be very fast.

It has nothing to do with predicting future results based on data from the past or price speculation though.

You really don't know all that or just playing dummy out of desperation?

Jesus Christ. Delta neutral strategies have EVERYTHING to do with price speculation.

It was YOUR example. Get on the wrong side of a short straddle once (i.e. watch the underlying price skyrocket or plummet). See how much (negative) money you make.

I said NOTHING about arbitrage. There are scalps all over the place in the markets.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

[hutennis]

hutennis -

I know this is off topic, but I would be interested in your answer.
If OP of this thread said "Thank you for your opinion. Would you please not post in this thread again." would you stop posting in this thread?

Does discussion I'm having here hurt anyone's felling?.
Or is it completely irrelevant for someone who is trying to be successful in speculative markets?
No one can find anything useful in this topic at all, or learn anything from how it is developing?

Are you saying people here are completely brain dead?
I don't believe it.


But, mercilessly, I do have to stop.
It's getting late.

[hutennis]

Jesus Christ. Delta neutral strategies have EVERYTHING to do with price speculation.

It was YOUR example. Get on the wrong side of a short straddle once (i.e. watch the underlying price skyrocket or plummet). See how much (negative) money you make.

I said NOTHING about arbitrage. There are scalps all over the place in the markets.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Straddle is not about price or direction speculation.
It is about correlation speculation.
Hedge funds are all about arbitrage, whether you said it or not.

Have a good night.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Straddle is not about price or direction speculation.
It is about correlation speculation.

Have a good night.

Could you talk out of your ass any more? Holy fuk.

Read, idiot:

The owner of a long straddle makes a profit if the underlying price moves a long way from the strike price, either above or below.

This strategy is called "nondirectional" because the short straddle profits when the underlying security changes little in price before the expiration of the straddle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straddle

[hutennis]

Could you talk out of your ass any more? Holy fuk.

Read, idiot:





http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straddle

Do you want me to read that straddle is called "non directional strategy"?
Is not it what I just said?

Straddle is not about price or direction speculation.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Do you want me to read that straddle is called "non directional strategy"?
Is not it what I just said?

Non-directional DOES NOT MEAN that it's not PRICE SPECULATIVE.

It DEPENDS on price speculation.