Edge against an effecient market?

**danshan11** · 08-02-18, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by Derailer

I know what your argument is. You don't know what it is. That is why you keep talking in circles with imaginary posters. There is not anybody that disagrees with this.

all I can say to this is WTF SMH

**danshan11** · 08-02-18, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by SilverSpoon111

Looks like im safe then

yeah you and me both are safe from being banned by the books for sure, LOL

**danshan11** · 08-03-18, 10:33 AM

how do you guys determine an edge on a game once it closes?

**Gaze73** · 08-04-18, 02:35 AM

You're all working with a false premise that there's no value on the closing lines. I model all my strategies ON the closing lines and believe me there's plenty of inefficiencies there. Remember, your edge over the bookies is that you can be selective. Maybe 90% of games have no value on the closing line, but the remaining 10% you can hit hard if you know where to hit.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

You're all working with a false premise that there's no value on the closing lines. I model all my strategies ON the closing lines and believe me there's plenty of inefficiencies there. Remember, your edge over the bookies is that you can be selective. Maybe 90% of games have no value on the closing line, but the remaining 10% you can hit hard if you know where to hit.

I think you are saying that you can beat the closing line and the vig by being selective if so here are my questions

What do you know that the entire betting community does not know including line hawks who see even a few cents of defenciency and jump on it?
How do you know what you think you know is actually an edge?

if it is wins you use as a measuring stick then this problem presents itself

Even if you flip 10000 coins you will not come out with exactly 5000 heads, its more like you will be within a deviation and have like 5200 heads and 4800 tails and to most people they see that as an edge when in fact it is just deviation.

Lets assume there is a very very small group of bettors who know more than the entire betting community on selective games, could be and probably is true but for me the dumb bettor with not nearly that skill level, I dont think it is a good idea for me to trust that as a measuring stick and bet my hard earned money on it.

**Gaze73** · 08-04-18, 01:43 PM

I analyze my picks from every possible angle and separate the wheat from the chaff. After hundreds of picks, trends arise in 5 categories: 1. Very profitable, 2. profitable, 3. neutral, 4. unprofitable, 5. horrible(these are very simply turned into very profitable). I focus on soccer these days and one of my big dog systems got 3 out of 4 winners today. It's definitely not the norm but it happened once over a month ago. For example Septemvri Sofia opened at 3.85 and closed at 7.19(+619) on Pinnacle, my big dog system takes any dog over 4.0. Now, they won 1:5 on the road. What were the "line hawks" and the market thinking? They couldn't possibly be more wrong about the game. Another game was PK-37 - Opening lines were around 3.0, but when they drifted to 4.5 they qualified for my system and won 1:2. Each win just confirms it's not luck anymore.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 01:47 PM

what angles that you are analyzing are not in the line and if they are not in the line and matter, why are they not in the line?

**Gaze73** · 08-04-18, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

if they are not in the line and matter, why are they not in the line?

Because the market is dumb. I used to bet on horses and it was exactly the same scenario, some profitable trends just survive year after year and I was like "how the F did the market still not catch up with this super obvious angle"?

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 02:36 PM

can you share of an example where the market was not effecient in the major markets over the long term and it was not just deviation

**Gaze73** · 08-04-18, 02:50 PM

Here's a simple math-based system I've been testing since June. Is 12% roi after 294 picks just luck? After eliminating some odds ranges I reduced it to 155 picks and 17% roi.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 03:03 PM

could very likely be luck but that would be verified by how this system did compared to the closing line on average

**Gaze73** · 08-04-18, 03:37 PM

Wow, I just checked today's results and my dog Plovdiv +2.5 pick won straight up as a 35 to 1 underdog, my biggest yet. Luck again? This system has 61.4% win rate and 24% roi after 57 picks.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Wow, I just checked today's results and my dog Plovdiv +2.5 pick won straight up as a 35 to 1 underdog, my biggest yet. Luck again? This system has 61.4% win rate and 24% roi after 57 picks.

any result that is a win is luck, the only thing that turns luck into edge is when you actually have an edge. I will say the same thing, I just hit a roulette number 11 at 35 to 1 am I now skilled at roulette? what if I was up after 60 roulette rolls, would this make me skilled at roulette, the only way for me to be skilled at roulette is if I can get them to remove a couple numbers and not change odds or change the odds to 40 to 1 and then I would be skilled at roulette win or lose!

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 03:44 PM

now if you can show me 100 games where you beat the closing line by more than the margin
You would then be
Skilled
and have an edge

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 03:45 PM

And in reality that could still just be deviation but the line method is the best method we have to determine a players skill but we still are aware of the possbiility of deviation

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 03:46 PM

I think Gaze the thing you should be concerned with is if you do indeed have an edge and if you do how do you maintain it and grow it, but first you need to know if you really have an edge and tracking euros, wins, losses and all that other stuff is not going to help you know if you have an edge and sometimes and edge is not enough to win bad luck can still kick your behind!

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 03:49 PM

know this as well there are lots of long term winners that do not have skill and are literally just a deviation winner. Long term winning is very hard and most people dont know how and are not doing it

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-04-18, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Here's a simple math-based system I've been testing since June. Is 12% roi after 294 picks just luck? After eliminating some odds ranges I reduced it to 155 picks and 17% roi.

Could easily be, that's a pretty small number of picks.
it's also easy to generate models that do great on backtests, but have no edge at all.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Could easily be, that's a pretty small number of picks.
it's also easy to generate models that do great on backtests, but have no edge at all.

this is deviation noise and it makes things seem like edges that just are not. run a coin flip simulator a few sets of 1000 and you will see real quick that heads is way better than tails or tails is way better than heads over 10000s of rolls. We are all smarter than that but we still think winning 10 in a row football bets makes us the next Toutmaster

**Gaze73** · 08-04-18, 03:56 PM

You are too obsessed with beating the line. Sure, if you can do that you will make money. But I make money by exploiting inefficiencies at the closing lines in carefully selected games. Go ahead and make 10 spreadsheets, I'm pretty sure you won't get anywhere near 10% roi in any of them after 200 picks. A useless system around even odds will reveal itself after 50 picks.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 04:00 PM

assume its possible for me to design the worst system and run it for 200 games when would I know to pull the plug? what information would I need to make that conclusion?

**Gaze73** · 08-04-18, 04:08 PM

Profit, duh. If after 200 bets the profit is -10 units there's 99.999% chance the system is a waste of time. If it's -40 units you could comfortably fade it. Coin flip calculator says that If you get 120 wins out of 200 bets at evens the odds are 1 in 975 that it was merely luck.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 04:15 PM

so here you go the sites stats
Most users ever online was 88,672, 09-02-15 at 08:38 AM. There are currently 3372 users online. 450 members and 2922 guests

and 1 out every 975 of these is just lucky and that is at a crazy high rate of 60% and people scream all day on here that they are winners and that means 52ish% or higher. so now you understand why 4,193 people all day sit here and think they have skill when in reality it is just luck.

how many people do you know or see here saying I am killing the line on a daily basis? how many? how many service pick guys show +CLV against the margin and now you will start a reailty on how penetrating high the lowest fruit on the tree is.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 04:16 PM

it is very hard to be skilled and win long term at sports betting and the only way we currently have to gauge success is beating the closing line.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 04:19 PM

sorry my autofill sucks on my phone but what i am saying is
if you put together 1000s and 1000s of people some are going to be winners because 1 out of 975 coin filippers wins at 60%

the gem is the guys that can beat the line, that is indicative of skill or at least the most likely way to tell.

I am not saying you are not skilled, I am saying you need to know your edge and dont believe in wins and losses. wins and losses lie to you!

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Profit, duh. If after 200 bets the profit is -10 units there's 99.999% chance the system is a waste of time. If it's -40 units you could comfortably fade it. Coin flip calculator says that If you get 120 wins out of 200 bets at evens the odds are 1 in 975 that it was merely luck.

how could someone bad at sports betting lose at that rate on purpose? the only way to end up at 40% WL on even money bets is to be on the shit side of luck and deviations! and to me this still does not show or not show skill. we need to see if the bets were good, good means going with the line enough to beat the margin

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-04-18, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

sorry my autofill sucks on my phone but what i am saying is
if you put together 1000s and 1000s of people some are going to be winners because 1 out of 975 coin filippers wins at 60%

the gem is the guys that can beat the line, that is indicative of skill or at least the most likely way to tell.

I am not saying you are not skilled, I am saying you need to know your edge and dont believe in wins and losses. wins and losses lie to you!

Funny and your quote on here is "if you aint winning your losing" KVB 2.0

**Gaze73** · 08-04-18, 04:55 PM

You said you wanted to design the worst system, that would be 40% wr.
So you think I got lucky huh, let's see about this one. Gee, guess I got lucky again.

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by SilverSpoon111

Funny and your quote on here is "if you aint winning your losing" KVB 2.0

more ranting and raving but never any data Silver, tout on brother tout on, one of those accounts by luck alone will win and you can scream in the wind, "I AM A WINNER"

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

You said you wanted to design the worst system, that would be 40% wr.
So you think I got lucky huh, let's see about this one. Gee, guess I got lucky again.

Gaze, how do you know you are not lucky?

**Gaze73** · 08-04-18, 05:28 PM

Why do you insist I am? Do you know how fukking unlikely is it to win 42/79 at 2.9 odds with luck alone? Could it be that the system works because it has good logic behind it?

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 05:33 PM

I am not saying in anyway shape or form that you are just lucky, I am saying it is impossible for me to give a good opinion on your skill level without the line you bet at and the closing number for that bet on say 20-30 bets, I mean the more games the better. How do you know you are not just lucky? IF someone hit on roulette twice in a row at 35 to 1 each bet, do you think they are skilled? Please answer those questions dont talk around the 2 questions

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 05:39 PM

this just happened this month is it luck?

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 05:39 PM

Jun 23, 2018

box

Sat

away

Marlins

Trevor Richards - R

Rockies

Tyler Anderson - L

6-2

4

W

-3.5

U

9-4

0-0

5-0

190

11.5

9

Jun 27, 2018

box

Wed

away

Blue Jays

Marco Estrada - R

Astros

Dallas Keuchel - L

6-7

-1

L

4.5

O

10-11

1-1

5-1

190

8.5

9

Jul 07, 2018

box

Sat

home

Blue Jays

JA Happ - L

Yankees

Luis Severino - R

5-8

-3

L

5.0

O

9-9

0-0

0-5

190

8.0

9

Jul 09, 2018

box

Mon

away

Athletics

Frankie Montas - R

Astros

Gerrit Cole - R

2-0

2

W

-6.0

U

6-5

0-0

2-0

190

8.0

9

Jul 09, 2018

box

Mon

home

Orioles

Jimmy Yacabonis - R

Yankees

CC Sabathia - L

5-4

1

W

-1.0

U

10-9

0-0

1-3

190

10.0

9

Jul 11, 2018

box

Wed

away

Athletics

Chris Bassitt - R

Astros

Lance McCullers - R

8-3

5

W

2.5

O

10-7

0-2

6-0

190

8.5

9

Jul 12, 2018

box

Thu

home

Mets

Steven Matz - L

Nationals

Max Scherzer - R

4-5

-1

L

2.0

O

7-11

0-0

0-3

190

7.0

9

Jul 30, 2018

box

Mon

away

Rangers

Martin Perez - L

Diamondbacks

Robbie Ray - L

9-5

4

W

5.5

O

12-9

1-0

4-1

190

8.5

9

**Gaze73** · 08-04-18, 05:58 PM

Wow, 8 bets, what is there to see? I gave you 79 and 294. Sports are not roulette. If a guy makes 2 bets on 35 to 1 dogs and both win, I'm pretty damn sure he had a good reason to make those bets. Yes he's lucky that both won, but not 1/36 * 1/36 lucky, maybe 1 in 400 lucky because of his edge at the closing line.