Edge against an effecient market?

**Snowball** · 07-25-18, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

that is awesome and I have heard of a few that do that you know Jets? he is a line hater and tells me I am dumb with all the line talk but he wins and consistently and laughs at me when i started crying line, LOL

I actually try not to look at the lines when I scan the card and start whittling down the choices.
That's because I don't want those influences to change my psyche. There are times I will cap
college basketball games as if were the linesmaker. Then compare my lines with the real lines,
those games with the highest discreapancy are the sides I bet. For example if I had UCONN by 7
and the line is 5, that's a lean.

**Snowball** · 07-25-18, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

Snowball you are a long term winner? like over 1000 plays winner? do you know in general if you are beating the line most of the time?

I am a long term winner. No idea about beating the lines.
I consider value but it is secondary to what I expect to take place
in regards to the actual athletic competition. I understand sports very well.

**danshan11** · 07-25-18, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

I am a long term winner. No idea about beating the lines.
I consider value but it is secondary to what I expect to take place
in regards to the actual athletic competition. I understand sports very well.

do you agree 99% of the things that people cap in a sport bet is already adjusted in the line?

**danshan11** · 07-25-18, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

I am a long term winner. No idea about beating the lines.
I consider value but it is secondary to what I expect to take place
in regards to the actual athletic competition. I understand sports very well.

sorry for all the ?s, do you set your own lines or just know how to pick winners?

**danshan11** · 07-25-18, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

I actually try not to look at the lines when I scan the card and start whittling down the choices.
That's because I don't want those influences to change my psyche. There are times I will cap
college basketball games as if were the linesmaker. Then compare my lines with the real lines,
those games with the highest discreapancy are the sides I bet. For example if I had UCONN by 7
and the line is 5, that's a lean.

sorry missed this earlier, thanks for the info

**Snowball** · 07-25-18, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

do you agree 99% of the things that people cap in a sport bet is already adjusted in the line?

Over 90% of what you ask is taken into effect, but the line is more concerned with achieving dollar equity so
the vig can do its job and bring profit for the house. Game scores would always finish hovering near the line if
it were anything more than this.. which it is not. So the line can be a trap.
I mean, it's a lazy boy's quickie glance on what is expectable, yes... but not 99%.
None of what I say matters if you have a model for CLV or any other line system that works for you.
You can become a color bettor based on team jerseys, or an astrological bettor. Whatever it is, there
are ways to win. As long as the great majority just want to suck down a beer and root for a team,
the house has no issue.

**danshan11** · 07-25-18, 06:12 PM

as I gulp my bud light and look at the MLB night games, LOL. I just think it is interesting and I would be really interested in knowing how you do against the line!

**danshan11** · 07-25-18, 06:13 PM

that is the true statement most people think they betting the book, they dont know the sharp are just sitting on a cliff looking down waiting for them to mess up a line so they can swoop down and take their money

**Bsims** · 07-26-18, 06:25 AM

Originally posted by Derailer

We all have lots of time to waste

Apparently

**danshan11** · 07-26-18, 10:40 AM

I dont call it wasting time, when it is about sports betting! Believe me I would be better off right now spending more time form chatting than betting, LOL

**tsty** · 07-28-18, 12:42 AM

lol so much trash in this thread

the only people who make money from the books are losers who bet opening lines

**tsty** · 07-28-18, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

I am a long term winner. No idea about beating the lines.

If you aint beating the closer then you aint a winner

**danshan11** · 07-28-18, 11:26 AM

I mean no offense to snowball and many others but I think it is very important to focus way more attention on line value. You limit yourself by not knowing how the market is capping games compared to you. Wins and losses are not enough info to make an informed decision on whether you have an edge or not. Wins and losses alone to me is not enough info to make a financial decision or commitment to betting.

**danshan11** · 07-28-18, 06:58 PM

if you pro turbo super most accurate best ever redefining modeling model is giving you implied win probability and your model is not very very close to 8 OUT 10 games, your model needs help, I dont care if it wins or loses. if your model is just picking winners and not doing implied than what is your model considering that every single model and modeler in the world who is voting with money are not seeing?

**Snowball** · 07-30-18, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by tsty

If you aint beating the closer then you aint a winner

what a stupid and innacurate thing to say.

**danshan11** · 07-30-18, 12:04 PM

@snowball what do you say about my NFL Charger example?

**tsty** · 08-01-18, 04:32 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

what a stupid and innacurate thing to say.

If the market is efficient then you can't beat closers by definition. There is nothing inaccurate about what I have said.

There have always been clowns thinking they can beat pinny closers but year in year out it has been proven that it's impossible.

**danshan11** · 08-01-18, 01:10 PM

I just dont understand how so many people believe you can beat the line. I say to the ones that say they have and if they indeed have its just noise, they are plain ol lucky even with 10000 games. I dont 100% doubt there is some guy out there that actually does but believing that and basing what I do on that is a huge mistake and many many make it everyday. The fact is gambling is kept running by ignorance, so play on friends play on and keep believing you are smarter than the entire gambling community consensus and keep believing you can make a better line than pinny does, pinny has some of the sharpest minds and they cant make a line that sticks, there lines from open to close move a ton!

**danshan11** · 08-01-18, 01:12 PM

people get so upset and dont like to hear it but one more time and loud for the people in the cheap seats

"the market is effecient and if it is you cant beat it" effecient means you cant beat it because of VIG. your only dream hope hail mary prayer is beating the line. Period with a capital P

**danshan11** · 08-01-18, 01:15 PM

3526-3561-197 (0.19, 49.8%)

that is the NFL since SDQL started
A you cant beat that
B imagine if you got a free half point by beating the line, you would have 197 more wins

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-01-18, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I just dont understand how so many people believe you can beat the line. I say to the ones that say they have and if they indeed have its just noise, they are plain ol lucky even with 10000 games. I dont 100% doubt there is some guy out there that actually does but believing that and basing what I do on that is a huge mistake and many many make it everyday. The fact is gambling is kept running by ignorance, so play on friends play on and keep believing you are smarter than the entire gambling community consensus and keep believing you can make a better line than pinny does, pinny has some of the sharpest minds and they cant make a line that sticks, there lines from open to close move a ton!

It's about having a winning system period and sticking to it if you cant do that you wont be a winning bettor idc what you think you do. I see alot of people on here that dont have threads no spreadhseets just post 4 picks in 5 different threads EVERYDAY and just start over the next day like they have a clue...it's not about beating the line its about picking winners and having a proven system that works. And this only bet 2% of your roll that works if your a break even player at best or a losing player which 95% are. I agree with you danshan.

**danshan11** · 08-01-18, 02:20 PM

Silver I believe you are a good guy but you cannot believe and tell others it is possible to win without beating the line long term. The only system you should use is one that beats the line regularly.

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-01-18, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

Silver I believe you are a good guy but you cannot believe and tell others it is possible to win without beating the line long term. The only system you should use is one that beats the line regularly.

TBH Dan i don't tell nobody shit on here cause it wouldnt matter anyway. Most don't even have a CLUE on where to start.

**tsty** · 08-02-18, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by SilverSpoon111

It's about having a winning system period and sticking to it if you cant do that you wont be a winning bettor idc what you think you do. I see alot of people on here that dont have threads no spreadhseets just post 4 picks in 5 different threads EVERYDAY and just start over the next day like they have a clue...it's not about beating the line its about picking winners and having a proven system that works. And this only bet 2% of your roll that works if your a break even player at best or a losing player which 95% are. I agree with you danshan.

nobody does "system" betting anymore

what is this 2010?

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-02-18, 12:36 AM

Originally posted by tsty

nobody does "system" betting anymore

what is this 2010?

Winners do let me guess your a "stats" guy or throw darts? here over 2 years and bring dick to the table wheres your picks champ?

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-02-18, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by tsty

nobody does "system" betting anymore

what is this 2010?

Ive noticed you only come in threads to say something negative try bringing something to the table or shut it.

**tsty** · 08-02-18, 03:19 AM

Originally posted by SilverSpoon111

Winners do let me guess your a "stats" guy or throw darts? here over 2 years and bring dick to the table wheres your picks champ?

No they don't

There isn't a syndicate in the world that does that useless shit

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-02-18, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by tsty

No they don't

There isn't a syndicate in the world that does that useless shit

Whats your def of "system" cause i can tell your right now it's now what you think.

**oilcountry99** · 08-02-18, 06:37 AM

Silver.... check your email

**danshan11** · 08-02-18, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by SilverSpoon111

Whats your def of "system" cause i can tell your right now it's now what you think.

what is your definition of system, Silver?

**tsty** · 08-02-18, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by SilverSpoon111

Whats your def of "system" cause i can tell your right now it's now what you think.

I know what it is but i dont think you do

keyword being system here

**Derailer** · 08-02-18, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

I just dont understand how so many people believe you can beat the line. I say to the ones that say they have and if they indeed have its just noise, they are plain ol lucky even with 10000 games. I dont 100% doubt there is some guy out there that actually does but believing that and basing what I do on that is a huge mistake and many many make it everyday. The fact is gambling is kept running by ignorance, so play on friends play on and keep believing you are smarter than the entire gambling community consensus and keep believing you can make a better line than pinny does, pinny has some of the sharpest minds and they cant make a line that sticks, there lines from open to close move a ton!

You say you can't beat Pinny and you've got to have CLV to be a winner. You've got to stop talking in circles because it makes you dizzy.

**danshan11** · 08-02-18, 10:15 AM

sorry I will clarify if you got derailed by it
if you bet the closing line with a "system" or "darts" you wont win because you are not beating the line
if you bet PRIOR to the closing line trying to predict the line and looking for value to the closing line, you have a very very small chance of beating the line and winning a very small amount if the book does not shut you down before that.

it takes me 10-20 games to tell you if someone is a pro or not, by pro I mean MIGHT be a winner
if he has 10 games and the line moved with against him half the time or so, he is a nerf
if he has 10 games and the line moved with him 7 or 8 out of 10 he is worth watching, its the same thing the books do. The books cannot wait for 1000 plays to see if someone is going to beat them. they need to know as fast as possible, to A adjust limits B ban the player.

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-02-18, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

sorry I will clarify if you got derailed by it
if you bet the closing line with a "system" or "darts" you wont win because you are not beating the line
if you bet PRIOR to the closing line trying to predict the line and looking for value to the closing line, you have a very very small chance of beating the line and winning a very small amount if the book does not shut you down before that.

it takes me 10-20 games to tell you if someone is a pro or not, by pro I mean MIGHT be a winner
if he has 10 games and the line moved with against him half the time or so, he is a nerf
if he has 10 games and the line moved with him 7 or 8 out of 10 he is worth watching, its the same thing the books do. The books cannot wait for 1000 plays to see if someone is going to beat them. they need to know as fast as possible, to A adjust limits B ban the player.

Looks like im safe then

**Derailer** · 08-02-18, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

sorry I will clarify if you got derailed by it
if you bet the closing line with a "system" or "darts" you wont win because you are not beating the line
if you bet PRIOR to the closing line trying to predict the line and looking for value to the closing line, you have a very very small chance of beating the line and winning a very small amount if the book does not shut you down before that.

it takes me 10-20 games to tell you if someone is a pro or not, by pro I mean MIGHT be a winner
if he has 10 games and the line moved with against him half the time or so, he is a nerf
if he has 10 games and the line moved with him 7 or 8 out of 10 he is worth watching, its the same thing the books do. The books cannot wait for 1000 plays to see if someone is going to beat them. they need to know as fast as possible, to A adjust limits B ban the player.

I know what your argument is. You don't know what it is. That is why you keep talking in circles with imaginary posters. There is not anybody that disagrees with this.