Stats mean nothing in baseball, absolutely nothing!
In predicting an individual game, it all comes down to one of the batters squaring one pitch out of the park for 2 or 3 runs, key errors (puts men on base, usually advances runner(s) and essentially gives them extra outs) or getting lucky and hitting some pitches down the line, you can average out the number of times that happens but never even close to accurate enough to be able to determine which side is the right side to take, if anyone makes money consistently betting on MLB year after year I'd like to meet them, the only system that even makes any sense is blindly taking all the underdogs but over time not even sure that works