Can NHL/MLB Be Handicapped based on Team Odds History and Current Team Odds Alone?

**Slanina** · 03-16-17, 01:45 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

And here is your simple proof:

http://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=AF+and+season%3D2012%2C2013%2C2014%2C2015%2C2016&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

By only playing away favorites over the last 5 seasons (straight up), you would be in the plus. Not by much but you would be in the green. Show this to anyone on Wall Street and they will give you a serious look. The problem is, in sports betting, 99% of bettors bet with emotions and lack self discipline.

If your relationship manager at Chase told you that he can offer you a product which is guaranteed to return 0.5% to 1%, from April until September, you would be a complete idiot to turn it down. That link above is proof that you can earn a GUARANTEED 0.5% to 1% ROI by risking only 1% of your BR per bet ($100 per bet on a $10K BR). Hell risk $500 per bet (5%) and walk away with and average of $3,750.00 per season). Most days will see 3-8 bets and that is why I would not recommend betting 5%, but with incremental performance, you are looking at numbers way higher than 0.5%....

Not that difficult, my advise is to keep betting simple and aim for 0.1% BR profit per day.

Is there a minimum ML to qualify or just any road favorite even if it's at +100? And are these based on closing/opening lines? I have some serious bonus RO to clear and I'm looking at ideas for MLB season. My money management is no joke as I came from the swing trade world at one point so im not worried about emotional betting.

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-16-17, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

Is there a minimum ML to qualify or just any road favorite even if it's at +100? And are these based on closing/opening lines? I have some serious bonus RO to clear and I'm looking at ideas for MLB season. My money management is no joke as I came from the swing trade world at one point so im not worried about emotional betting.

All based on closing lines and ANY away favorite.

Learn SDQL and add a few minor variables and you will be surprised at what type of results you get...

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-16-17, 02:13 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

What the hell is this? Why are we all grinding away when this is sitting here. And where was this in October....

Three reasons why:

1) the majority of people who bet on sports are addicts or seeking some sort of adventure (which eventually leads to being an addict)
2) peoples mindset and expectations. I've seen so many people in here attempt to double a BR in one month or go "all in" on a sure shot wager and going bust rather than being happy with a minor return on a thought out "trade"
3) as usual.... money management

You could attempt to drill this in to peoples heads as much as you can but the majority just doesn't understand.

Again, be happy with 2-3% return over a month or two...

As for the question, where was this in October: It's March, make the best of March and promise yourself to not ask "where was this in March" in a few months...

Again, SDQL is your friend, get to know him. He will treat you well.

**Slanina** · 03-16-17, 02:21 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Three reasons why:

1) the majority of people who bet on sports are addicts or seeking some sort of adventure (which eventually leads to being an addict)
2) peoples mindset and expectations. I've seen so many people in here attempt to double a BR in one month or go "all in" on a sure shot wager and going bust rather than being happy with a minor return on a thought out "trade"
3) as usual.... money management

You could attempt to drill this in to peoples heads as much as you can but the majority just doesn't understand.

Again, be happy with 2-3% return over a month or two...

As for the question, where was this in October: It's March, make the best of March and promise yourself to not ask "where was this in March" in a few months...

Again, SDQL is your friend, get to know him. He will treat you well.

Interested no doubt. I'll do some reading over the weekend.

**Slanina** · 03-16-17, 02:29 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not the same thing but another very simple system based on the practically the same theory:

Sub-.500 favorites coming off of a loss facing any team coming off of a win are 742-469 with an ROI of +6.7% since the 2005-06 season. This season alone is 69-42 with ROI of 8.1%. Clarification: to determine if team is sub-.500, regulation losses and overtime/shootout losses count the same, so a team that is 10-5-6 would actually be sub-.500 (10-11).

Keep in mind that I personally rely on models, but if model agrees with play this system supports, it makes me feel good.

System play for Tuesday would be Florida if they remain favored.

Jumped the gun.

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-16-17, 03:02 AM

This is what I am going to be playing this MLB season, next to the simple Away Favorite system:

games	W - L (marg, %win)	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	$ Against	W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	$ Over	$ Under
75	55-20 (1.73, 73.3%)	-191.8	170.5	+$2,068	-$2,388	40-30-5 (1.15, 57.1%)	7.5	+$720	-$1,395	season = 2014
109	83-26 (1.99, 76.1%)	-205.1	184.8	+$3,217	-$3,717	54-52-3 (1.05, 50.9%)	7.6	-$333	-$767	season = 2015
165	119-46 (1.89, 72.1%)	-215.5	195.2	+$2,316	-$3,186	83-74-8 (0.79, 52.9%)	8.1	+$229	-$1,569	season = 2016

Sorry, can't release the details of this model...

**Slanina** · 03-16-17, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

This is what I am going to be playing this MLB season, next to the simple Away Favorite system:

games	W - L (marg, %win)	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	$ Against	W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	$ Over	$ Under
75	55-20 (1.73, 73.3%)	-191.8	170.5	+$2,068	-$2,388	40-30-5 (1.15, 57.1%)	7.5	+$720	-$1,395	season = 2014
109	83-26 (1.99, 76.1%)	-205.1	184.8	+$3,217	-$3,717	54-52-3 (1.05, 50.9%)	7.6	-$333	-$767	season = 2015
165	119-46 (1.89, 72.1%)	-215.5	195.2	+$2,316	-$3,186	83-74-8 (0.79, 52.9%)	8.1	+$229	-$1,569	season = 2016

Sorry, can't release the details of this model...

How far back did you go for the away favorites? I did 10 years on a few I created before I became a believer of one. Only curious.

Those are some serious MLs on your hidden model.

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-16-17, 03:25 AM

That depends on the league... I try not to go back more than 5 years, usually around 3. Leagues evolve over the years and change. MLB for example, ever since instant replay has been added, the league has changed. umpires might tend to open the zone or close it, people getting busted for roids, walls being moved in. Most of these changes impact quickly but remain a factor for years.

I also like to to see how the annual performance was compared to the previous years, if the trend is up or down and usually lay away from downtrending models. Vegas, the public and/or sharps catch on to these things and tend to move lines the other way. The same will most likely happen with the away favorite trend, it won't last forever because bettors will eventually catch along and vegas will weigh that in to their capping.

**stevenash** · 03-18-17, 12:45 AM

I need some sleep, but tomorrow I will show how betting two favorites in MLB on a parlay actually cuts into the books edge.
Also betting a Kershaw or Bumgarner on the road on a money line is not a bad idea, because as a road favorite your team is always guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, where as if you bet the favorite on a money line at home, you are hosed if you win 3-2 after 8 innings, you're not getting that ninth inning at bat at home.
This is the only time to bet a run line in baseball, when you love your pitcher (or side) on the road and don't feel like laying -140.
As a matter of fact you are not making a profit betting chalk in bases anyway if you bet chalk on a regular basis.
If you lose 2 straight at -150, you need to hit 3 straight flats just to get even.

As a rule of thumb I never lay more than -133 (or 4 to win 3)
Here's my take on wagering chalk, if you have the 220,why do you need the 100 (laying -220)

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-18-17, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

I need some sleep, but tomorrow I will show how betting two favorites in MLB on a parlay actually cuts into the books edge.

I completely agree. As a matter of fact, someone across the street proved that by playing an NHL-parlay system with great success. Dan, you know who I'm talking about.

**rkelly110** · 03-18-17, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

I need some sleep, but tomorrow I will show how betting two favorites in MLB on a parlay actually cuts into the books edge.
Also betting a Kershaw or Bumgarner on the road on a money line is not a bad idea, because as a road favorite your team is always guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, where as if you bet the favorite on a money line at home, you are hosed if you win 3-2 after 8 innings, you're not getting that ninth inning at bat at home.
This is the only time to bet a run line in baseball, when you love your pitcher (or side) on the road and don't feel like laying -140.
As a matter of fact you are not making a profit betting chalk in bases anyway if you bet chalk on a regular basis.
If you lose 2 straight at -150, you need to hit 3 straight flats just to get even.

As a rule of thumb I never lay more than -133 (or 4 to win 3)
Here's my take on wagering chalk, if you have the 220,why do you need the 100 (laying -220)

You awake yet?

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-18-17, 01:28 PM

Such a pity that this thread is getting quiet. Some food for though for all of you interested in betting based on nothing more than odds....

As we all know, the first few weeks of the MLB season are always full of surprises. Dogs starting off the season hot, favorites starting off cool. But how do we take advantage of these types of plays? You can "gamble" and play a team which "should be good" but is slumping during the first few weeks with hope that they will turn it around or even vise versa. Or you could just play a certain side of each game, which has been a side where both sharp money and the public tend to not play, a place where Vegas is making money.

So with that said, we start our SDQL journey. Which sides of the first few games are neglected? Where is Vegas making money?

Very simple and again, "away favorites" it is...

The public money will catch on, so we need to play for only a certain time period. In and out, hit and run, drive by shooting style!

Other than in 2013, away favorites with lines lower than -125 have ALWAYS made money in April. 2013 was down only 5.96 units.

Here are the other seasons numbers:

2012: 29-13, 11.41 units
2014: 33-18, 8.76 units
2015: 18-10, 3.38 units
2016: 43-18, 16.2 units

So here's how you play it... Bet until you make your 3 units and run! This is when you would've made your money during the above mentioned seasons:

2012: April 5th, 4 units: 4-0
2013: April 11th, 3.9 units: 11-5
2014: April 5th, 3.9 units: 7-2
2015: April 26th, 3.5 units: 14-7
2016: April 4th, 5 units: 5-0 (opening day)

Again, discipline and smart money management! Again, we are playing to ONLY win 3 units! You could easily double you wager and play to win 2 units per bet.

Proof: http://killersports.com/mlb/query?su...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

PS:
For those "chase addicts", you could easily play a three leg chase (risking to win 0.5 units), throughout the entire month..

**rkelly110** · 03-18-17, 05:29 PM

Good job TT!

**Slanina** · 03-19-17, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not the same thing but another very simple system based on the practically the same theory:

Sub-.500 favorites coming off of a loss facing any team coming off of a win are 742-469 with an ROI of +6.7% since the 2005-06 season. This season alone is 69-42 with ROI of 8.1%. Clarification: to determine if team is sub-.500, regulation losses and overtime/shootout losses count the same, so a team that is 10-5-6 would actually be sub-.500 (10-11).

Keep in mind that I personally rely on models, but if model agrees with play this system supports, it makes me feel good.

System play for Tuesday would be Florida if they remain favored.

If i understand correctly, Philadelphia fits the criteria for today. 3/19

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-19-17, 06:06 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

If i understand correctly, Philadelphia fits the criteria for today. 3/19

Correct

**tsty** · 03-19-17, 06:07 PM

was looking good until the rkelly nonsense came in

**rkelly110** · 03-19-17, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by tsty

was looking good until the rkelly nonsense came in

**Slanina** · 03-19-17, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

If i understand correctly, Philadelphia fits the criteria for today. 3/19

And it's a winner!

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-20-17, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

And it's a winner!

In deed, I tossed 1% BR at them. Great pickup LT.

**Slanina** · 03-20-17, 11:46 AM

TT, why suggest stopping after +3u? Rest of those seasons numbers are + as well.

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-20-17, 12:21 PM

Good question. The chances of winning "only" 3 units is much, much higher than winning 10 units. Again, the market will adapt and the system will eventually fail. If I can run four, just four simple systems and scalp the market of 3 units each month and risk only 0.5% per bet, I could put up some serious RoI numbers over 6 months.

I'll be playing with a $10K BR this summer, if I can walk away with $1000 I will be a happy camper. You can't expect to double your BR every season...

**tsty** · 03-20-17, 04:12 PM

or you could have just been running good...

**RockBottom** · 03-20-17, 05:51 PM

Good stuff here TT.

**BPulse** · 03-20-17, 10:02 PM

Great read here guys... very interested in the baseball models TT... and we should continue to keep track of the hockey trend posted by LT each day to see how it continues to do...

**BPulse** · 03-20-17, 10:14 PM

Also for those SDQL literate people in here...

Any chance the sub .500 fav coming off a loss facing any team coming off a win hold any traction in baseball or NBA itself... or any close variance to it?

Thanks - BPulse

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-21-17, 01:33 AM

Originally posted by BPulse

Also for those SDQL literate people in here...

Any chance the sub .500 fav coming off a loss facing any team coming off a win hold any traction in baseball or NBA itself... or any close variance to it?

Thanks - BPulse

Nope, backtested both leagues last week.

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-21-17, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by BPulse

Great read here guys... very interested in the baseball models TT... and we should continue to keep track of the hockey trend posted by LT each day to see how it continues to do...

Thanks. I'm also very interested in seeing how this performs over the last few weeks. History says April will not be a very good month. I'll be busy with MLB and will most likely not play it in April anyway...

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-21-17, 03:38 AM

MLB trivial: Which pitcher was a "to fade" machine during the month of April? Here are the numbers, you guess who he is:

Playing RL's:

2009: 4-0, 4 units
2010: 4-1, 2.6 units
2011: 3-2, 1.2 units
2012: 3-2, 0.75 units
2013: 3-3, -1.74 units
2015: 3-2, 0.6 units
2016: 3-2, 0.87 units

Let's see who can figure this one out. Oh, one more tip, a fading RL has NEVER lost his first two starts, so a simple two game chase should win an easy unit in early April!

**LT Profits** · 03-21-17, 07:56 AM

Originally posted by BPulse

... and we should continue to keep track of the hockey trend posted by LT each day to see how it continues to do...

Looks like nothing Tuesday.

I get 70-43 with a 7.7% ROI YTD as of now (TT's results may vary).

I get 54-22 with a 23.1% ROI for April since 2005-06, BUT just 13-11 for -7.9% last 3 seasons.

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-21-17, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Looks like nothing Tuesday.

I get 70-43 with a 7.7% ROI YTD as of now (TT's results may vary).

I get 54-22 with a 23.1% ROI for April since 2005-06, BUT just 13-11 for -7.9% last 3 seasons.

Exactly, I try not to look back to far because leagues tend to evolve, gamblers and Vegas also catch on to trends...

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-21-17, 09:15 AM

This is also a very simple system I am working on, which only works in April. Pretty sweet numbers!

games	SU	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	$ Against	RL	Avg Run Line	o:Avg Run Line	$ RL On	$ RL Against	SDQL

11	7-4 (0.09, 63.6%)	120.7	-132.4	+$393	-$461	8-3 (1.59, 72.7%)	-170.6	156.8	+$386	-$418	season = 2013
11	7-4 (1.36, 63.6%)	123	-133	+$480	-$546	9-2 (2.86, 81.8%)	-173.5	159.3	+$569	-$596	season = 2014
8	6-2 (2.00, 75.0%)	115.8	-125.8	+$503	-$563	6-2 (3.12, 75.0%)	-156.5	156.2	+$303	-$277	season = 2015
14	9-5 (0.93, 64.3%)	133.2	-144.1	+$688	-$782	12-2 (2.43, 85.7%)	-152	139.9	+$937	-$950	season = 2016

**BPulse** · 03-21-17, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

This is also a very simple system I am working on, which only works in April. Pretty sweet numbers!

games	SU	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	$ Against	RL	Avg Run Line	o:Avg Run Line	$ RL On	$ RL Against	SDQL

11	7-4 (0.09, 63.6%)	120.7	-132.4	+$393	-$461	8-3 (1.59, 72.7%)	-170.6	156.8	+$386	-$418	season = 2013
11	7-4 (1.36, 63.6%)	123	-133	+$480	-$546	9-2 (2.86, 81.8%)	-173.5	159.3	+$569	-$596	season = 2014
8	6-2 (2.00, 75.0%)	115.8	-125.8	+$503	-$563	6-2 (3.12, 75.0%)	-156.5	156.2	+$303	-$277	season = 2015
14	9-5 (0.93, 64.3%)	133.2	-144.1	+$688	-$782	12-2 (2.43, 85.7%)	-152	139.9	+$937	-$950	season = 2016

Looking at hockey here or still talking baseball?

**BPulse** · 03-21-17, 09:36 AM

And if I'm trying to find stuff like this myself... like to contribute if I can... you said you recommend 3 or 5 years of looking back? As you said with leagues evolving and all...

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-21-17, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by BPulse

Looking at hockey here or still talking baseball?

My bad, MLB. Not really looking at NHL right now. My focus is MLB

**TechnicalTrader** · 03-21-17, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by BPulse

And if I'm trying to find stuff like this myself... like to contribute if I can... you said you recommend 3 or 5 years of looking back? As you said with leagues evolving and all...

Yes, that's how I like to backtest.