NHL over/under question

[Captain Nemo]

I have some questions about NHL regulation goals since I pretty much never bet it (or hockey for that matter til now).

I have a local book that offers o/u’s only on NHL regular time scores. It’s moderately juiced (-110), and slowish to move lines. Don’t think many people bet it, since I doubt it’s a popular sport here, but I guess there’s some good opportunities that arise here and there. So I was just looking at pinny closing lines and betting whatever was stale.

I don’t know much about hockeyz, but iirc a few years ago it was a period of OT during regular season followed by the shootout (think it was 20m? or was it 5 as well?), and no shootout in the playoffs. It seems it’s changed now to 3 on 3 for only a single 5 min period before the shootout happens. I also assume pinny doesn’t count a shootout loss as a goal, so a 2-2 game that ended in a shootout is a win if you have the u4.5 not a loss right?

In any case, I assume the only o/u’s that really matter in this scenario are just the 4.5 and 6.5, since the 3-3 and 2-2 is a win in case of an overtime loss. I was looking at about how much to value these key #’s.

From a quick general estimation (i.e. not heavy favorites) and looking around what correct score odds are posted online, 2-2 should be around 6% or so of the time, and the 3-3 a bit less, around 5% or so. So was wondering around what number I should use for calculating the chance of a goal scored in OT under this format, during the regular season? There doesn’t seem to be much sample size for it, and not sure if pinny or other books has live markets for the o0.5 (but assume some should?) since I never checked, but was interested in hearing around what % of the time should a goal be scored in the OT period?

[Smartmoney87]

I'm not too good with hockey but betting small to learn. Don't take my opinion on this matter as though I'm right. It has been predominantly 5's and 5 1/5's all season at normal juice. Is your book offering 4 1/2's at reg juice not buying points? If so that's a huge benefit and you might be able to make some real coin betting the over on best game at 4.5. I have been trying and working different systems laying small money. What has worked the best for me so far is to limit betting the 5.5's unless it looks real good. Find the best one or two teams at 5 you think will go over.
I've bet so many games that ended with a total 5 goals it's crazy. Don't know if this is a normal trend cause I'm new to betting hockey but something I will check out. I lost quite a few early on betting the over 5.5's. switching to betting the over 5's and pushing on a game that was at a 2-1 score 2/3 of the way through the third period and a goal gets scored meaning 5 will be hit. Don't know if this is a good long term strategy for hockey but has made me some money recently if it starts losing I'll adapt and look for another strategy that works.

[LT Profits]

I also assume pinny doesn’t count a shootout loss as a goal, so a 2-2 game that ended in a shootout is a win if you have the u4.5 not a loss right?

No, shootouts DO count toward total in that the shootout winner is awarded a "goal", so total is based on actual NHL final score. But you said your local is regulation only, so that should be besides the point.

[bullock]

2:2 occurs around 8% of the time and 3:3 around 6.7%. If the book sometimes has the same odds on regular U 4.5/5 as Pinny, it's worth betting it. How much does the book take BTW?

[Optional]

Totals have changed a lot in the last 8 years