Why do people bet season long futures?

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  • tsty
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 04-27-16
    • 510

    #1
    Why do people bet season long futures?
    must be the worst type of bet you can do without a doubt
  • Optional
    Administrator
    • 06-10-10
    • 61304

    #2
    Different things for different people.

    ~50% return on investment over 6 months probably looks awesome to some people.

    There's probably less variance taking season long bets so true odds estimates would be more accurate.

    Also offers the chance to further reduce risk with hedging positions.


    The person who likes these sorts of bets probably thinks you are the one taking the worst sort of bets, just because you want to see a result every day and cant be patient for 6 months.
    .
    Comment
    • Optional
      Administrator
      • 06-10-10
      • 61304

      #3
      if you follow some of the tennis forum posters you can see some that focus on tournament result betting, which take 5-6 days, and how they hedge etc. That's the same thinking as a season long football prop bettor. Just on a shorter scale.
      .
      Comment
      • pabonaparte
        SBR MVP
        • 01-21-16
        • 3566

        #4
        In rare cases betting season long future is a better bet than backing the team in question on game-by-game basis. A somewhat relevant illustration is taking Ohio State +10 in the CFB playoff final against favored Alabama. The tricky part is that if Ohio State even makes it to the final the line will be under a touchdown based on the power rankings at that point.
        Comment
        • terpkeg
          SBR MVP
          • 10-26-09
          • 2364

          #5
          Can't generalize. Need odds.
          Comment
          • 5918mike
            SBR MVP
            • 04-16-14
            • 1885

            #6
            Could be a diversify tactic, long term type of investment with hedge opportunity down the road.
            Comment
            • statnerds
              SBR MVP
              • 09-23-09
              • 4047

              #7
              +EV bets are +EV regardless of the time frame

              why did i start buying positions in Clinton at -175 in May?

              cuz that shit was +EV.

              additionally, if you can't afford to have a certain percentage of your BR tied up for a few months, quit gambling now
              Comment
              • SBRMAN23
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-07-11
                • 6905

                #8
                Could be very profitable
                Its like an investment
                They dont mind having money tied up for long periods of time
                Hedging can be done at different times to guarantee profit
                Comment
                • pokerdevil
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 04-20-16
                  • 433

                  #9
                  Originally posted by statnerds
                  +EV bets are +EV regardless of the time frame

                  why did i start buying positions in Clinton at -175 in May?

                  cuz that shit was +EV.

                  additionally, if you can't afford to have a certain percentage of your BR tied up for a few months, quit gambling now
                  Needs to be significantly +EV to be worthwhile though. There is the time cost of money and the risk that your book goes under
                  Comment
                  • tsty
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 04-27-16
                    • 510

                    #10
                    Originally posted by statnerds
                    +EV bets are +EV regardless of the time frame

                    why did i start buying positions in Clinton at -175 in May?

                    cuz that shit was +EV.

                    additionally, if you can't afford to have a certain percentage of your BR tied up for a few months, quit gambling now
                    Is it really thou?

                    is a 10% edge the same if it's on a game that will be played next week compared to something that will take 2 months to finish?

                    The more I think about it the more I think betting season long bets is retarded

                    Is there something you can use to calculate how much EV you would need compared to how long it takes for it to be worthwhile?
                    Comment
                    • Buffalo Nickle
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-12-14
                      • 3228

                      #11
                      They are good bets if you can afford them. If don't want to tie your money up because you don't have much, they are not as attractive. If they win, they are great bets regardless. If they lose, they aren't.

                      Haralobos Voulgaris started his gambling career with a $70,000 season-log bet on the Lakers. It turned out a really good bet.
                      Last edited by Buffalo Nickle; 10-27-16, 10:37 PM.
                      Comment
                      • Waterstpub87
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-09-09
                        • 4102

                        #12
                        Originally posted by tsty
                        Is it really thou?

                        is a 10% edge the same if it's on a game that will be played next week compared to something that will take 2 months to finish?

                        The more I think about it the more I think betting season long bets is retarded

                        Is there something you can use to calculate how much EV you would need compared to how long it takes for it to be worthwhile?
                        I would value this in the following way:

                        Assume a discount rate equal to: future bet % of bankroll * daily turnover * normal ev per bet

                        Pv of futures bet = Futures bet amount * (1 + estimated return) / (1+ discount rate)^betting days till settlement

                        Simple example, consider that you have a futures bet on the Jacksonville jaguars at +300 to win the afc south a 25% chance of winning. Say that you estimate it should be close to 200, for a winning percentage of 33.4% chance of winning. This gives you an 8.4% return on investment. You bet 50 dollars for an expected fv of 54.2

                        Your bankroll is 1000. You bet 300 a week in the nfl, averaging a 1% return on investment.

                        Your discount rate would be .05*.30*.01= .00015 =(1+.00015)^17=1.0015

                        54.2/
                        1.0015

                        54.11 would be the estimate present value.

                        assume an example of the same numbers, but instead baseball with a team to win the division. Assuming 180 day season
                        your discount rate would be closer to 1.027, giving you an estimate present value of 52.77.
                        Comment
                        • tsty
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 04-27-16
                          • 510

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle
                          They are good bets if you can afford them. If don't want to tie your money up because you don't have much, they are not as attractive. If they win, they are great bets regardless. If they lose, they aren't.

                          Haralobos Voulgaris started his gambling career with a $70,000 season-log bet on the Lakers. It turned out a really good bet.
                          that bet seems ridiculously bad

                          might as well go all in on black
                          Comment
                          • LT Profits
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-27-06
                            • 90963

                            #14
                            The only use I have for futures is betting real longshots to win the Super Bowl that I feel are good bets to make the playoffs, setting up nice hedges. For example, it would not surprise me if Tennessee wins the AFC South, so betting them at 125/1 to win Super Bowl could allow you to lock in some very nice profit if they do win the division, more profit you would make than betting them +395 to win the South.
                            Comment
                            • Buffalo Nickle
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-12-14
                              • 3228

                              #15
                              Originally posted by tsty
                              that bet seems ridiculously bad

                              might as well go all in on black
                              That's why he is a multi-millionaire and you aren't.
                              Comment
                              • bhoor
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-17-12
                                • 2256

                                #16
                                Winning that season long future is not worth at all, death/win by 1000 cuts or torture.
                                Comment
                                • Gonad
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 08-17-10
                                  • 1100

                                  #17
                                  As Opti said, different things for different people... I live in Cincinnati, and absolutely refuse to back the Bengals as long as Mike Brown is alive, so I lay down a good amount on one team that I figure can win the Super Bowl... Makes me a fan of that team, if only for a season...
                                  Comment
                                  • Hu$tle
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-31-15
                                    • 1365

                                    #18
                                    bet all futures in vegas u clowns???
                                    Comment
                                    • tsty
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 04-27-16
                                      • 510

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle
                                      That's why he is a multi-millionaire and you aren't.
                                      Huh?

                                      Are you really sitting here telling me that every current pro sports better has never made a bad bet?

                                      Placing your whole net worth on a season long future is horrendous
                                      Comment
                                      • LVHerbie
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-15-05
                                        • 6344

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by statnerds
                                        additionally, if you can't afford to have a certain percentage of your BR tied up for a few months, quit gambling now
                                        Agreed. If you can't throw a unit or two on something that is going to take awhile to settle you probably aren't making mathematically correct decisions anyhow.

                                        Originally posted by tsty
                                        Huh?

                                        Are you really sitting here telling me that every current pro sports better has never made a bad bet?

                                        Placing your whole net worth on a season long future is horrendous
                                        Seem to remember an interview where he admitted in hindsight it wasn't a wise decision.
                                        Comment
                                        • reigle9
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 10-25-07
                                          • 17879

                                          #21
                                          Cause like opti said there's room for hedges as the season progresses. Also less variance. If fact, I don't even know why I replied. What opti said. And it's fun to be like, I told you Eastern Michigan would cover their wins total a 1/3 of the way into the season.

                                          It's for people that actually do research and don't tail or blind bet line moves.
                                          Comment
                                          • statnerds
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-23-09
                                            • 4047

                                            #22
                                            I know what today's present value of this retarded bet:

                                            Parlay wager 375594435-1 posted on Monday, May 2 2016 8:09PM was deleted on Thursday, Nov 3 2016 1:32PM.

                                            Hockey - 10505 Pittsburgh Penguins wins series 4-2 +315 for Game
                                            Baseball - 25001 Chicago Cubs win World Series +395 for Game
                                            Reason: Ticket stuck in the system. Manual adjustment made
                                            Contact customer support if you need further clarification regarding this deleted ticket.

                                            +1954

                                            i realize i will never convince you enough that time periods are really meaningless if you are talking strictly in
                                            +EV terms. really no reason to point out the CLV on the above Cubs future. even saying when the rest of the world had
                                            hendricks at -145 i had him at +1954 will really do nothing to alter your perspective.

                                            i'll try this final one though. you identify a future that satisfies your threshold for profitability and you consider how
                                            you can make that even more profitable. the more i read the more you sound like a day trader. these things are stocks.
                                            i take long positions, you would rather focus strictly on 12-18 hour contracts and hope you can somehow overcome the
                                            cost of frequent trading, where we won't even touch on Gambler's Ruin that erodes the example of value given above.
                                            you can average 1% return all you want, but the more you play, the longer and steeper your losing streaks will become.
                                            my bad, looks like we touched on it anyway. i'll link short and long term items together if i find them to be +EV.

                                            like this one:
                                            Pending
                                            4 Team Parlay
                                            Win 9/19/16 8:30pm NFL Football 289 Philadelphia Eagles +137* vs Chicago Bears
                                            Cancelled 9/19/16 8:30pm NFL Football 289 Philadelphia Eagles/Chicago Bears Over 43 -110*
                                            Pending 11/8/16 8:00am Politics Other Sports 32 Democrat wins Presidential Election -220* vs Republican wins Presidential Election
                                            9/20/16 6:38am Win 9/20/16 7:05pm Props Baseball 25001 Chicago Cubs win World Series +210* vs Field wins World Series (Fixed Price)
                                            my only word of caution at this point is that if you continue to believe there is only one way to win long term at gambling
                                            you are in for some growing pains my friend.
                                            Comment
                                            • KVB
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 05-29-14
                                              • 74817

                                              #23
                                              I agree that there are uses for online open parlays that pay the correct odds as long as you can get them.

                                              I've had some of those open for a very long time to ensure the best bets go into it.

                                              An advantage is an advantage.
                                              Comment
                                              • tsty
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 04-27-16
                                                • 510

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by reigle9
                                                Cause like opti said there's room for hedges as the season progresses. Also less variance. If fact, I don't even know why I replied. What opti said. And it's fun to be like, I told you Eastern Michigan would cover their wins total a 1/3 of the way into the season.

                                                It's for people that actually do research and don't tail or blind bet line moves.
                                                I don't want to seem like an ass but I don't think you understand what that word means.

                                                But hey when you are being an arrogant prick then I shouldn't feel bad.
                                                Comment
                                                • BaseballChaser
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 06-29-16
                                                  • 388

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle
                                                  They are good bets if you can afford them. If don't want to tie your money up because you don't have much, they are not as attractive. If they win, they are great bets regardless. If they lose, they aren't.

                                                  Haralobos Voulgaris started his gambling career with a $70,000 season-log bet on the Lakers. It turned out a really good bet.
                                                  Bob has said that was a bad bet. He said something along the lines of there was value, but looking back it wasn't worth it to bet everything he had (obviously) even though it won
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Hu$tle
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-31-15
                                                    • 1365

                                                    #26
                                                    I place a future prop on a team usually i watch them every week and learn all their stats, good strengths and weakness too. plus u can HEDGE OUT
                                                    Comment
                                                    • evo34
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-09-08
                                                      • 1032

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle
                                                      That's why he is a multi-millionaire and you aren't.
                                                      He has made some money playing poker. There is no evidence he's a lifetime winner in sports.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stevenash
                                                        Moderator
                                                        • 01-17-11
                                                        • 65444

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by tsty
                                                        must be the worst type of bet you can do without a doubt
                                                        Hardly the worse.
                                                        Made a bundle with KC in 2015, there was tremendous value there and I jumped all over it.
                                                        They were one out away in 2014 from winning it all, 2015 they upgraded, and Vegas still pissed on them pre-season.
                                                        God bless the Royals.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JIBBBY
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-10-09
                                                          • 83686

                                                          #29
                                                          Futures are great but only in some sports not all.. For example in MMA I don't touch them anymore..

                                                          I still have a future bet pending from over a year ago - Rhona Rousey vs Miesha Tate.. That fight was cancelled a long time ago but the books are still holding that bet as pending until they match up again in the future which they probably won't..

                                                          No time limit with MMA futures... Fights get cancelled alot due to injury...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Buffalo Nickle
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-12-14
                                                            • 3228

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by evo34
                                                            He has made some money playing poker. There is no evidence he's a lifetime winner in sports.
                                                            There's a lot of evidence. He was an employee at an airport and bet his $70,000 savings. He now has millions. He did not win it at poker.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • tsty
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 04-27-16
                                                              • 510

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle
                                                              There's a lot of evidence. He was an employee at an airport and bet his $70,000 savings. He now has millions. He did not win it at poker.
                                                              Are you trolling now?

                                                              If I went to the casino 2 years ago and won 10k playing BJ and now I am worth millions...Does that make me a winner at blackjack?

                                                              2k posts cmon man
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Buffalo Nickle
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-12-14
                                                                • 3228

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by tsty
                                                                Are you trolling now?

                                                                If I went to the casino 2 years ago and won 10k playing BJ and now I am worth millions...Does that make me a winner at blackjack?

                                                                2k posts cmon man
                                                                D-U-M Dumb!!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • evo34
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-09-08
                                                                  • 1032

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle
                                                                  There's a lot of evidence. He was an employee at an airport and bet his $70,000 savings. He now has millions. He did not win it at poker.
                                                                  You posting what you've read does not qualify as evidence.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Ralphie Halves
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-13-09
                                                                    • 4507

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by evo34
                                                                    You posting what you've read does not qualify as evidence.
                                                                    I've met him, if it helps. It's all real. He has nothing to gain from pretending, he doesn't sell anything. None of it was poker though, he may not even be up overall in bankroll or staking others. I don't know how it all started, but he made a killing during the 2001 series when Kobe and Shaq were together.

                                                                    I knew before though. He live tweeted himself being court-side for game 7 at Golden State with his girl, and you could easily see him on TV. I also have a connection in Monaco who knows where he lives now. Fakers don't get to retire to Monaco, that place weeds you out fast.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • evo34
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-09-08
                                                                      • 1032

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Ralphie Halves
                                                                      I've met him, if it helps. It's all real. He has nothing to gain from pretending, he doesn't sell anything. None of it was poker though, he may not even be up overall in bankroll or staking others. I don't know how it all started, but he made a killing during the 2001 series when Kobe and Shaq were together.

                                                                      I knew before though. He live tweeted himself being court-side for game 7 at Golden State with his girl, and you could easily see him on TV. I also have a connection in Monaco who knows where he lives now. Fakers don't get to retire to Monaco, that place weeds you out fast.
                                                                      A poster knows a guy who knows a guy who knows he lives in Monaco? Good enough for me!
                                                                      Comment
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