"Reverse engineering" team ratings from odds

[karpo500]

Hey, I´m new to this forum and trying to find solution following thing.

I´m programming software to my personal use to make good bets on my local bookmaker. I would like to calculate probabilities to some Total scores, Asian handicaps and correct scores on football(soccer) games.

I want to use market odds(Pinnacle) to calculate team ratings and then calculate probabilities to different draws.

Can somebody help me how to get started with this problem?

[evo34]

No idea about soccer, but check out inpredictable.com. He produces power ratings based on sportsbook odds.

[omedo]

I dont think that's a good idea, at least to make money.
If you pick their data, youwill arive at their numbers, meaning you shouldnt bet any game at all.

there's a site with elo rankings, http://clubelo.com

[jemcrowne]

Chief your brain is more powerful than you think...Come up with your own home grown formula...I have come up with my own formula that I use for 5-6 team $50-$100 parlays as well as straight bets and I do pretty well.....

[bozeman]

I think this has a grain of success in it, it is not a golden mine, but this strategy i bet is far more successful than most of the garbage discussed on forums

[Juret]

If you believe that goal distribution is Poisson, then you can take Pinnacle odds and use solver in Excel to get the implied lamdba.

[Raana]

The fact is pinnacle odds and more accurate goal distribution is not classic poisson. It would be too simple for real world model, don't you think so?