Bet Size DOES Matter

[Hu$tle]

A few interesting things I have noticed recently betting:

Assuming you have a high consistent win%
It pays to bet big! Fewer high probability bets 10-30% of your bankroll may have its up and downs but if your picks are winners it pays off. Stay away from the sexy games, trap lines/props..go for the easy overlooked ones the bookie is trying to hide.

Have been hitting at around 60-70% of my bets using a variety of sources, my own and live betting. Granted i am using some amazing picks not my own, i have noticed more profits betting less games for more $...

[HeeeHAWWWW]

It pays to bet big! Fewer high probability bets 10-30% of your bankroll may have its up and downs but if your picks are winners it pays off. Stay away from the sexy games, trap lines/props..go for the easy overlooked ones the bookie is trying to hide.

Then you have a bad streak and go bust because you're staking too much. This is one of the oldest dilemmas in sportsbetting.

10% is far, far too much.

[Hu$tle]

I agree, there is winning and losing streaks. But this strategy is not for those who lose almost as much as they win volume wise. I found personally betting high volume daily would get me waxed compared to 3-5 max best set ups so to speak.

The most important reason I try to bet is to make money and high % picks + aggressive $ bets is the answer.

What I have found to be damaging is double or tripling down all on one correlated outcome, hoping for the homerun win that wipes out.

[evo34]

I agree, there is winning and losing streaks. But this strategy is not for those who lose almost as much as they win volume wise. I found personally betting high volume daily would get me waxed compared to 3-5 max best set ups so to speak.

The most important reason I try to bet is to make money and high % picks + aggressive $ bets is the answer.

What I have found to be damaging is double or tripling down all on one correlated outcome, hoping for the homerun win that wipes out.

You sound squarer than square.

[SlapYaMama]

A few interesting things I have noticed recently betting:

Assuming you have a high consistent win%
It pays to bet big! Fewer high probability bets 10-30% of your bankroll may have its up and downs but if your picks are winners it pays off. Stay away from the sexy games, trap lines/props..go for the easy overlooked ones the bookie is trying to hide.

Have been hitting at around 60-70% of my bets using a variety of sources, my own and live betting. Granted i am using some amazing picks not my own, i have noticed more profits betting less games for more $...

I use 5-15% of my bankroll and hovering over 72% accuracy. I agree with the less games more money theory.

[Redwing41]

I use 5-15% of my bankroll and hovering over 72% accuracy. I agree with the less games more money theory.

I cant agree with you more. The only thing is you need to have enough games to level out the swings. Otherwise if you have only 70 games you are at more risk than one that plays 300 games. Playing on 50 -70 only games if you get above the expect growth or profit you should just start flat betting. If you have 300 games, continue, provided that you keep the percentage and odds the same.


Can I ask what are you doing to get 72% and at what odds? I been get 85% on one specific bet but only about 65% in MLB, NBA and NCAAB. I would like to add something.. live betting or future betting to my arsenal. Politics? e sports? competitive eating? WNBA? Tennis?

[Miz]

Don't even know where to start here. I strongly encourage you to read posts from around 2005-2009 to save yourself some money and frustration.

[Snoman]

You can't just ignore math all of a sudden OP...

[clowncar]

What are you guys doing wrong that you are hitting 72% and 85% on your wagers. I am winning 105% of my wagers.

[Auto Donk]

are you on a 1-1000 scale?

[clowncar]

Better to rank my sarcasm on that scale than my win %. If anyone is consistently hitting 60-85% (ATS) over a long period of time (meaning a lot of bets), they are the first. If it is over a short period of time (meaning few bets) then who cares?

[Wilder2016]

Ha, if you are a long term 60% bettor and you can get down 1/8 kelly, you will be a billionaire before long.

[eidolon]

Wake up like a douche in the middle of the night!

[BaseballChaser]

Even if you did hit bets at -110 odds like you say mathematically you still go on a losing streak that just kills your roll betting that big.

Also, the more wagers the less the variance. Take your edges and you will profit long term. If you have a small BR and are just trying to run it up and have the ability to reload with another small bankroll then sure you can be aggressive to try to build it.

[Hu$tle]

Gentleman,....I was on a heater... I take this thread back

[pabonaparte]

Gentleman,....I was on a heater... I take this thread back

It takes one quite some time to realize that bookies can not be beat after all. No substitute to hard work.

[statnerds]

Then you have a bad streak and go bust because you're staking too much. This is one of the oldest dilemmas in sportsbetting.

10% is far, far too much.

What he said

[omedo]

_{So no one uses Kelly Criterion or some variant of that, successsfully?}