Originally Posted by
Justin7
Compare these 2 options:
Full kelly
Half kelly
With full Kelly, you are likely to have staggering fluctuations. Your risk of ruin (or catastrophic loss) is much higher. So is your expected profit.
With half kelly, your upsides/downsides will be smaller. You'll be less stressed. You're less likely to suffer a "carreer ending year". The flip side is that if you make lots of EV bets, your long term growth is lower.
Before picking one, ask yourself: "How sure am I of my advantage?" If you don't have a VERY good feel for your edge, forget kelly. Stick to flat betting 1% of your bankroll until experience teaches you your edge.