1. 02-14-12 07:46 PM #1
    lite1up
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    Bankroll recalculation - every day or after established bankroll markers

    I hope this is appropriate for the think tank. Hoping someone more experienced than I has an answer to my question...

    Am I better off recalculating my unit size on a daily basis....or waiting for my bankroll to either reach or drop to a set amount prior to recalculating?

    It seems like recalculating daily could be problematic....you go 3-0 on the day, so your unit size increases, and then you go 1-2 the next day. Losses will be greater than if you had just stuck with your original calculation. Likewise, let's say you go 1-2, so your unit size decreases...then you go 3-0 the next day. You just ate into your profit on the 3-0 day by recalculating.

    I'm sure I'm looking at this far too simplistically. Any advice?
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  2. 02-14-12 07:49 PM #2
    lite1up
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    I suppose I should clarify that Kelly is not for me - I fully admit that I can't calculate my edge accurately enough.
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  3. 02-14-12 07:52 PM #3
    FourLengthsClear
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    After every bet, if practical.
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  4. 02-14-12 07:56 PM #4
    lite1up
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post
    After every bet, if practical.
    Thanks. Do you mind explaining the math behind this?
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  5. 02-14-12 08:41 PM #5
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by lite1up View Post
    Thanks. Do you mind explaining the math behind this?
    The actual math is quite complex as it pertains to expected growth.

    In simple terms though more frequent recalculation offers more protection from negative variance (downswings) and reduces the risk of ruin.
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  6. 02-14-12 08:49 PM #6
    lite1up
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    Thanks FourLengthsClear. Very helpful as usual.
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  7. 02-15-12 04:38 PM #7
    TBsp75
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    when using flat betting, is it better to WIN a unit or RISK a unit?
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  8. 02-15-12 06:59 PM #8
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by TBsp75 View Post
    when using flat betting, is it better to WIN a unit or RISK a unit?
    TO WIN, which is consistent with Kelly principle if you assume same edge each game. That way you risk less on dogs.
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  9. 03-02-12 01:03 AM #9
    pimike
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    Don't adjust daily your % size!! I don't care what anybody tells you. Only adjust after every +as 1,000 has been met and as its starts a new week.

    Example: You have 1,000 you bet based upon that 1,000, 1% is 10.00 5% is 50.00 until you have 2,000. If you hit 2,000 before the weeks up stay at the 1,000 based %. A new week you can than base upon 2,000 % even if its at 2200. Always round it off each week based upon the 1,000 never the extra even if its 2,800.

    Also play the % to win so you may have 1.35 to win 1%. As for the dog bet the risk amount, 1 % to win 1.25.

    This has worked for me for years. Keep it simple.

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