a question to justin/donjuan/ganchrow

[tachi]

"If you beat the closing line,you'll win long term."

So lets take a soccer match.The line opens at +120 and
closes at +110.
in the first 15 min there are no goals and the odds raise to +120.
The circumstances are different,but if I took these odds,
it'd be identical as betting the opener.In fact I'll bet on what the "wise guys",who beat the closing line,had already bet.

Is this so easy?

[reno cool]

no good.
You're missing the fact that some % of the time those who bet before the game would have a goal scored in they're favor in the first 15minutes.

[TomG]

Lots of information was contained in that 15 minutes of play that you are not taking into consideration.

[tachi]

the silence means: Yes.

[u21c3f6]

The answer is no.

If the line you are trying to beat goes from +110 to +120 after 15 mins, taking it at +120 at that point is almost surely a losing proposition. After a scoreless 15 mins you would need to beat the +120 by at least the spread to begin to have a +EV.

Joe.