2nd Half Betting Scenario

**Justin7** · 03-24-09, 02:55 PM

If the Lakers are a favorite and down 14, they will be favored by more than 6.5 (or should be, absent an injury).

**Lets_Get_Money** · 03-24-09, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

If the Lakers are a favorite and down 14, they will be favored by more than 6.5 (or should be, absent an injury).

they weren't won the game by 9, maybe because they were on the road

14. [Won] $90.91 (Play) [Won: $90.91] Straight bet. Risking $100.00, to win $90.91. Ticket Id:358152

[Win] LA Lakers -6½ -110 on LA Lakers - Chicago [Sat, Mar 21 9:57PM] [NBA 2nd Half]

**Pancho sanza** · 03-24-09, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

If the Lakers are a favorite and down 14, they will be favored by more than 6.5 (or should be, absent an injury).

Can you clarify a bit here?

Are you saying they would be favored by more than 6.5 regardless of how big of a favorite (for the game) they are?

**Dark Horse** · 03-24-09, 08:03 PM

Wherever you can find motivation in the NBA, and a team that can translate it into success, the pastures are green.

**Justin7** · 03-24-09, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

Can you clarify a bit here?

Are you saying they would be favored by more than 6.5 regardless of how big of a favorite (for the game) they are?

Nevermind. I overgeneralized - thanks for pointing out the flaw.

**dwaechte** · 03-24-09, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by Lets_Get_Money

Does Anyone have the numbers where the favorite is losing at half time and they cover the Halftime line? It's seems like it's very sucessful and Hits around 65% of the time but I'd rather have the numbers to be exact.

For Example

Lakers Down 14 vs Chicago @ Half, 2nd Half Laker line -6.5. Lakers Cover and Win the game.

I think the Samething happened with these games within the past week, all the teams covered in the 2nd half

Orlando vs New York
Chicago vs Washington
Villanova and American

No offense, but if that system hits at 65% Ill eat my hat. In fact, I'll go so far as to guarantee you won't hit more than 52% blindly taking favourites who are down at the half. I suggest digging deeper.

**Lets_Get_Money** · 03-24-09, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by dwaechte

No offense, but if that system hits at 65% Ill eat my hat. In fact, I'll go so far as to guarantee you won't hit more than 52% blindly taking favourites who are down at the half. I suggest digging deeper.

Maybe not blindly taking the favorites but lets just say the team that is losing is head and shoulders above the team that it's playing against. I don't know how you can filter that it's really just a gut feeling. Top 4 in either Conference vs a non top 8 team I don't know what would be appropriate or not in filters but I'll try my best

For the record SA fit the Criteria and Didn't cover in the 2nd Half. I'll Track it for the rest of the Season right here on this Thread.

YTD: 0-1

3/24/09: SA (-6) 2nd Half Loss

**smoke a bowl** · 03-25-09, 07:46 AM

IMO, these spots are big time losing propositions. I generally wait for the market to pound the pregame favorite and then play the dog at the peak and have been very successful with these 2H wagers..

**Peep** · 03-26-09, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by Lets_Get_Money

Maybe not blindly taking the favorites but lets just say the team that is losing is head and shoulders above the team that it's playing against. I don't know how you can filter that it's really just a gut feeling. Top 4 in either Conference vs a non top 8 team I don't know what would be appropriate or not in filters but I'll try my best

For the record SA fit the Criteria and Didn't cover in the 2nd Half. I'll Track it for the rest of the Season right here on this Thread.

YTD: 0-1

3/24/09: SA (-6) 2nd Half Loss

Give me your parameters and I'll track it for the last ten years for free, save you some time (and maybe money).

Just a few questions so the data base can quantify.

What range of favorites do you want?
Home favorites only?
Road favorites only?
How much down at the half?
How many points are you willing to give within the point ranges specified above?

That sort of stuff......

**Lets_Get_Money** · 03-26-09, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by Peep

Give me your parameters and I'll track it for the last ten years for free, save you some time (and maybe money).

Just a few questions so the data base can quantify.

What range of favorites do you want? (Greater than 7 points)
Home favorites only? (Doesn't matter) If you could try to see if the reults vary
Road favorites only? (Doesn't matter) " " " " "
How much down at the half? (Down by 3 or greater)
How many points are you willing to give within the point ranges specified above? (lines of 7 or greater @ Halftime)

That sort of stuff......

thanks

**Peep** · 03-26-09, 05:35 PM

OK.

I don't know what lines the books had up for the second half, I don't know where (if any place) this information is recorded.

But, in the NBA...

1) I have 3535 home favorites or -7 or more.
2) 660 of these were down my 3 or more at the half.
3) 378 of these won the second half by seven or more.

**Lets_Get_Money** · 03-26-09, 05:58 PM

Thats a good enough a sample for me, thats hitting at 57% clip.

Philly/Minn fit that criteria yesterday, 76ers covered.

Thanks for the Help

**Arilou** · 03-26-09, 06:51 PM

The average line in such games will be more than -6.5, and rarely will it be less than -6.

**JoePrez** · 03-30-09, 04:59 PM

Giving points to a team that is kicking your but just dont seem like a winning philosophy. Those look like set up plays, the I knew they would come back theyre better philosopy will get you in trouble in the long run. I bet the winning percentage is less than 50%.