Hedging a back bet with a back bet?

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • BetExplorer
    SBR Rookie
    • 07-05-14
    • 5

    #1
    Hedging a back bet with a back bet?
    In a situation where you have two outcomes and you are live betting is it possible to execute a 100% hedge i.e. set your profit/loss to 0 and if so what is the maths behind it (formula ). By two outcomes for instance I mean a tennis match where one of two players has to win provided one doesn't hurt himself or gets struck by lightning...
  • EXhoosier10
    SBR MVP
    • 07-06-09
    • 3122

    #2
    Using american odds
    BetAmt1/(IF(Line1<0,-Line1/(100-Line1),100/(100+Line1))/IF(Line2<0,-Line2/(100-Line2),100/(100+Line2)))
    Comment
    • BetExplorer
      SBR Rookie
      • 07-05-14
      • 5

      #3
      Originally posted by EXhoosier10
      Using american odds
      BetAmt1/(IF(Line1<0,-Line1/(100-Line1),100/(100+Line1))/IF(Line2<0,-Line2/(100-Line2),100/(100+Line2)))
      Hi I tried this using decimal odds 1.67 for line 1 and 2.02 for line 2 which I converted to US odds and plugged it in. Then I got a DIV/0

      Can this formula be reworked for decimal odds?
      Comment
      • bihon
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-03-09
        • 731

        #4
        What you're looking for is probably: odd1/(odd1+odd2)=money on odd2 and similarly odd2/(odd1+odd2)=money on odd1.
        However 100% edge is impossible because of juice.
        Last edited by bihon; 07-08-14, 01:25 PM.
        Comment
        • BetExplorer
          SBR Rookie
          • 07-05-14
          • 5

          #5
          Originally posted by bihon
          What you're looking for is probably: odd1/(odd1+odd2)=money on odd2 and similarly odd2/(odd1+odd2)=money on odd1.
          However 100% edge is impossible because of juice.
          I think your formula is working out the fraction i.e. decimal odds I would need on the other side.

          To clarify what I am looking for:

          Before the game starts I bet 1.67 on Line 1 now my player at some point during the game is starting to lose and the other player is at 1.8 . What amount do I need to bet on Line 2 (1.8) to set both bets to 0. Is there a formula for that or does it even work in theory?
          Comment
          • bihon
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 11-03-09
            • 731

            #6
            I am not really sure what you mean by "setting both bets to 0".
            However in de scenario you provided above you can limit your loss (or lock a profit if the other odd is favorable) using the same formula.

            So, if you already bet say $70 @1.67 and the other side is @1.8, that means

            1.67/(1.67+1.8)=0.4812 or 48.12% of the total should be bet on the other side, which means that the remaining 51.88%=$70.
            Thus 70/0.5188 * 0.4812 = $64.93 should be bet @1.8

            No matter which one wins you will have the same loss:
            a) 70*0.67 - 64.93 = -18.03
            b) 64.93*0.8 - 70 = -18.05
            Comment
            • BetExplorer
              SBR Rookie
              • 07-05-14
              • 5

              #7
              thank you!

              I think what I wanted to know is: how can you work out if at one point in a game you decide you hedge the other side so that it will result in 0 profit in both outcomes. Is that even possible or is there only a certain window of opportunity where the odds converge towards 100% where that is possible?
              Comment
              • bihon
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 11-03-09
                • 731

                #8
                Obviously you cannot win or offset losses if the odds go against you.
                To find the threshold or even counterodd you use
                1/(odd-1)+1

                which in your case translates to 1/0.67 +1 = 2.493

                So, odd2 should be higher than that to make a profit.
                Comment
                • smoke a bowl
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-09-09
                  • 2776

                  #9
                  If I'm understanding this correctly it is not doable. You cant make a bet, lose 15% equity on said bet and then bet the other side and BE on both bets.
                  Comment
                  SBR Contests
                  Collapse
                  Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                  Collapse
                  Working...