Initial results so far: what do you think?

[Unknown User]

Hey guys,

I'm just starting out and got 140 bets in now. I've been comparing my bets to the pinnacle closing line to help predict if my strategy is actually a winning strategy...

Although it would be better to compare against the no-vig odds, atm I don't have the skills to tell where the vig actually is on Pinnacle.

Ok so after 140 bets:

My payouts(or would be payouts) are on average 9,34% higher than they would have been on the pinnacle closing line. I've calculated payouts because If I would compare odds a 1.15 taken vs a 1.12 Pinnacle line wouldn't look very good while it's actually really good.

I'm matching odds anywhere from 1.07-25.0 but the average of the odds I take is 4,41

Is this looking like a winning betting strategy or am I a few % short here?

[Unknown User]

4,41 is +341 U.S odds

[gui_m_p]

Hey guys,

I'm just starting out and got 140 bets in now. I've been comparing my bets to the pinnacle closing line to help predict if my strategy is actually a winning strategy...

Although it would be better to compare against the no-vig odds, atm I don't have the skills to tell where the vig actually is on Pinnacle.

Ok so after 140 bets:

My payouts(or would be payouts) are on average 9,34% higher than they would have been on the pinnacle closing line. I've calculated payouts because If I would compare odds a 1.15 taken vs a 1.12 Pinnacle line wouldn't look very good while it's actually really good.

I'm matching odds anywhere from 1.07-25.0 but the average of the odds I take is 4,41

Is this looking like a winning betting strategy or am I a few % short here?

I guess you're good so far. 9,34% on CLV is enough for me, considering pinny low juice. Keep tracking your results and keep firing.

[Unknown User]

Thnx Gui, I appreciate the feedback a lot

[a4u2fear]

Does the line movement follow the side you are opting to bet more than not?

[Unknown User]

Hmmm I don't track that consciously. I think it's quite rare that a better line becomes widely available but I do think the odds come out closer to the price I bet at quite often.

[a4u2fear]

You should be back testing instead of blindly betting forward. You can find old opening and closing lines

[staf]

Hey guys,

I'm just starting out and got 140 bets in now. I've been comparing my bets to the pinnacle closing line to help predict if my strategy is actually a winning strategy...

Although it would be better to compare against the no-vig odds, atm I don't have the skills to tell where the vig actually is on Pinnacle.

Ok so after 140 bets:

My payouts(or would be payouts) are on average 9,34% higher than they would have been on the pinnacle closing line. I've calculated payouts because If I would compare odds a 1.15 taken vs a 1.12 Pinnacle line wouldn't look very good while it's actually really good.

I'm matching odds anywhere from 1.07-25.0 but the average of the odds I take is 4,41

Is this looking like a winning betting strategy or am I a few % short here?

The 9.34% better than Pinnacle is what is called "beating the closing line". Does your method have something to do with line shopping?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Needs vastly more sample size, unfortunately.

Also, are you betting at a recreational book? It's easy to beat pinnacle by picking off soft lines, but you'll just lose the account soon enough.

[Unknown User]

Yes this sample is mostly line shopping with some additional requirements. Its not really feasible to back test as I have no idea if I would have been able to take the lines.

I've got limited and banned by some recbooks like interwetten and bwin in the past, so Im using better ones. It's good to hear that its easy to beat pinnacle lines but is I'm afraid its still not enough to beat the juice? What do you think Staf?

Heeehaaaw what kind of sample size would make you feel comfortable?

And in case I can sustain it, is the % difference large enough with these type of odds?

Thnx for your experienced opinions btw

[staf]

As far as sample size goes, 1000 results is really the minimum needed before you can start drawing conclusions about the validity of any method.
Based on the little bit of information you've given us, I'm guessing you're betting a lot of underdogs in soccer and tennis. I'm not completely familiar with how the odds work in these sports, but I believe they have a lot of vig. Beating the closing line by 9% might be enough to overcome the vig, but it's out of my realm of knowledge.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I've got limited and banned by some recbooks like interwetten and bwin in the past, so Im using better ones. It's good to hear that its easy to beat pinnacle lines but is I'm afraid its still not enough to beat the juice?

To beat pinnacle itself definitely isn't easy - what I mean is get better prices than their closers, by playing at recreationals.

[Unknown User]

Ah yeah I think I understood you. I was encouraged that the method of beating Pinnacle lines at soft books should be doable, even though I understand they are agressive against that kind of betting. I think some of the easiest fruit is not there for me anymore.

@Staf, thankyou, the lines I'm taking are all over the place but betting underdogs happens a lot for sure. I have been alerted to the fact that there might be a lot of juice in big underdog lines and I upped the requirements needed to bet these. If that is correct I was losing big on some bets in my early sample.

[Wilbo86]

Random question, I've recently started hitting limits at some of my books. What are some strategies to avoid getting banned? In the event of a ban, presumably you can still withdraw the account funds?

[James Marques]

Random question, I've recently started hitting limits at some of my books. What are some strategies to avoid getting banned? In the event of a ban, presumably you can still withdraw the account funds?

Be 100% sure you only have ONE account per site. Even if you did this on accident, they'll find out and screw you over. I've seen it way too many times.

[gui_m_p]

Random question, I've recently started hitting limits at some of my books. What are some strategies to avoid getting banned? In the event of a ban, presumably you can still withdraw the account funds?

I've started a thread about it a while ago:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbooks-industry/2812270-how-do-you-stay-under-radar-recreational-books.html

[Wilbo86]

I've started a thread about it a while ago:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbook...nal-books.html

Much appreciated