[Fat So]

Hi,

I've been sports betting quite seriously for a few years now, but as we entered the new year, I wanted to make a few changes to help my bottom line. Last year, I made approximately 2000 wagers ATS, and my win rate came in just under 54%. Though some would argue that its a good win rate, my target was 57%, so I was naturally disappointed. This prompted me to start doing more research online, and then I came across this forum. Great info overall, and I am appreciative to all the senior posters who share their knowledge.

I am fortunate enough to have many outs for my wagering, including live bookies who are slow to update their lines. Traditionally, I would simply ARB any stale line which could net me a profit of at least 1.5% over total volume, but after reading the posts regarding beating the closing number, I figured I may be better off betting the stale line instead. This leads to the reason behind my post.

The closing line for the total in the NHL game PIT vs PHI, was Under 6 -107/-103. I had the option to take the same Under at the price of +115. After taking the closing line from Pinny, and removing the vig, I was able to determine that the probability of the Under coming in would be ~50.46% At +115, and a win prob of 50.46%, the Kelly Calculator gave me 7.3817% of ev. This is where I get a little lost...

If I entered the same numbers into the scalp calc, and used an even money line rather than -103 for the over, shouldn't my % profit be the same as my edge through the Kelly calc? In this particular case, the % profit from the scalp calc worked out to be 3.6145% for 2 bets. Taking the scalp calc number down to 1 bet would bring me to 7.229%. I figured this number would correlate with the Kelly number, but it's off by more than a tenth of a percent.

I'm not too much of a stickler for such small numbers, but I just want to make sure my fundamental understanding of the situations and numbers are accurate.

Any help would be great. Thanks.

[3put]

The Kelly Calculator's 7.3817% is the Kelly STAKE, not the EV

[Fat So]

I was under the impression that the Kelly stake and the EV are exactly the same thing since you bet your edge at 100% Kelly

[durito]

I was under the impression that the Kelly stake and the EV are exactly the same thing since you bet your edge at 100% Kelly

This is only true at even odds.

[solobass]

good stuff thanks for sharing