Beginning Season Gamblers

[bobbydrake]

Do you start gambling on day one of the season; or do you wait a week or a month (for whatever reason that might be) before you place your first bet? I know this question has many variables and factors involved. I just want a CONSENSUS. If you want to elaborate, be my guest.

This question is referring particularly to baseball since its the next major betting sport coming up, but it also pertains to all the sports.

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If this question has been brought up before, can you please direct me to that thread. (what do you expect? I'm a freakin rookie)

[bobbydrake]

my bad... I should have written this post on the players talk forum.

[u21c3f6]

Do you start gambling on day one of the season; or do you wait a week or a month (for whatever reason that might be) before you place your first bet? I know this question has many variables and factors involved. I just want a CONSENSUS. If you want to elaborate, be my guest.

This question is referring particularly to baseball since its the next major betting sport coming up, but it also pertains to all the sports.

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If this question has been brought up before, can you please direct me to that thread. (what do you expect? I'm a freakin rookie)

For myself, I start betting on baseball from day 1 but that is because the edge that I bet on is not based on handicapping the team, pitcher or players. If I developed an edge based on team, pitcher or player performance, then I would have to wait for those statistics to become meaningful in the current season before I would bet.

Joe.

[bobbydrake]

For myself, I start betting on baseball from day 1 but that is because the edge that I bet on is not based on handicapping the team, pitcher or players. If I developed an edge based on team, pitcher or player performance, then I would have to wait for those statistics to become meaningful in the current season before I would bet.

Joe.

4 Example Scenerios:

1. Home Dog ML System = 1st day of the season
2. Power Ranking Formula = Couple weeks
3. Degenerate Gambler = Pre Season
4. Entertainment Purposes = Follow that Guy from Cornell University

Besides the last two, would these examples explain your reasoning.

[Peep]

Yeah, I sort of bet everyday, one day I notice bases, say "neat" and bet/don't bet them. I really don't notice much differences in start and/or finish or season, I think the line reflects that nicely.

[Mudcat]

Historically, I have started betting about ~15% into the seasons. Like I bet NFL starting week 3. I bet MLB after about 20 games. 10 games for NHL and NBA.

I don't have an elegant explanation for why. The sort of research I do has simply yielded the best results after things get going a bit. I could speculate why but it is what it is.

But things change and I am always looking at improvements and some of the research I am doing now is aimed at possibly betting MLB right from day 1 this year. I have a few theories. We'll see how it tests out.

Depending how that goes, it could apply to other leagues down the road.

Same goes for the end of seasons. Historically I have bet right up to the start of the playoffs but I am finding it advantageous to quit earlier in recent years. Ideally, rather than quit, I could make profitable adjustments. But everything is a work-in-progress.

[Wayfarer]

For small market sports I find the lines to be the softest early in the season.