Parlays

[gamblingisfun]

I can get 3 team nfl parlays that pay out 7-1 instead of the usual 6-1. Is that even a big advantage?

[satana]

no...

[andywend]

I can get 3 team nfl parlays that pay out 7-1 instead of the usual 6-1. Is that even a big advantage?

7-1 is no vig whatsoever. Any book that offers 7-1 on a 3 team parlay means trouble come withdrawal time.

[gamblingisfun]

It's a local who pretty much exclusively takes parlay bets only. I never bet parlays, only straight up with spread. What % do I need to hit each leg to make it worth it?

[ericc]

One thing you need to make certain is the terminology. 7 'for' 1 is the same as 6 'to' 1.
7 for 1, if you collect you get 7.
6 to 1, if you collect you get 6 plus your 1 back.

[gamblingisfun]

Yesterday my friend made a 3 team parlay that hit and he bet 60 dollars and he's gonna get paid 420 and not have to pay in his 60 dollar bet on collection/payout day. That's the same as 7-1 odds. If he had to put the money in the bookies hand right away it would say bet 60 to pay out 480 to include the original bet

[Pancho sanza]

It's a local who pretty much exclusively takes parlay bets only. I never bet parlays, only straight up with spread. What % do I need to hit each leg to make it worth it?

Just bet games where he offers a better price than market and you're good to go.

[hutennis]

Even with 7-1 it does not make any sense to get involved.
At 7-1your EV is 0. So you will simply break even in a long run, but only if your chance to get paid is 100%.
The simple fact that it cannot be 100% makes the whole deal a losing proposition.

[gamblingisfun]

Even with 7-1 it does not make any sense to get involved.
At 7-1your EV is 0. So you will simply break even in a long run, but only if your chance to get paid is 100%.
The simple fact that it cannot be 100% makes the whole deal a losing proposition.

Pretty much exactly what I needed to know.

[tto827]

Even with 7-1 it does not make any sense to get involved.
At 7-1your EV is 0. So you will simply break even in a long run, but only if your chance to get paid is 100%.
The simple fact that it cannot be 100% makes the whole deal a losing proposition.

But you should take this into account.

Just bet games where he offers a better price than market and you're good to go.

And at 7-1 a monkey would have an EV of 0. If he has any kind of an edge, that becomes plus EV and he doesn't have to overcome vig.

Basically what you just said reads that every bet at -110 is -EV.

[Jikos]

I'm assuming all spreads are off by a point or so? If not then these are good odds.

[gamblingisfun]

His lines are off at times, giving me an advantage. So if there's advantageous lines I'm planning on parlaying them if any idiot hitting 50% can break even.

[tto827]

His lines are off at times, giving me an advantage. So if there's advantageous lines I'm planning on parlaying them if any idiot hitting 50% can break even.

That's what I'd do.

[tto827]

I've heard parlaying +EV bets multiplies your advantage, but I'm not sure I believe that.

Just be aware that it won't be loads of cash coming in, instead of hitting 12 out of 100, you are going to hit 13 times or so.

Best of luck and let us know how it goes.

[JoeyBagels]

See if he allows correlated bets and start putting in volume.

[BigdaddyQH]

This is a set up men. I've seen it done many times. The book let's you think that you are getting away with it, but then, when everyone comes down big on a game or two, it is Sayonara time and your money goes with him.

[gamblingisfun]

This is a set up men. I've seen it done many times. The book let's you think that you are getting away with it, but then, when everyone comes down big on a game or two, it is Sayonara time and your money goes with him.

He doesn't actually hold anyone's money, he takes bets before gametime and on the friday after is pay out/in day. So I'm not actually physically handing him any money until after I know whether I've won or lost. So if there's one week I don't get paid, then I'm out, but the whole season's worth of profits won't be taken away.

[gamblingisfun]

But you should take this into account.


And at 7-1 a monkey would have an EV of 0. If he has any kind of an edge, that becomes plus EV and he doesn't have to overcome vig.

Basically what you just said reads that every bet at -110 is -EV.

I just found out also: on his parlays if they lose, he takes 10% out for juice... That may throw a wrench in the parlay plans... So if i win its 7-1, and if I lose, I lose my bet + an extra 10% for juice...effectively making it a -110 parlay bet

[SteveRyan]

The odds of winning a 2 team parlay is 25%. Your expected loss is also 10%. Here is how this is calculated.

The odds of winning a bet is 50%. So for parlays, you just multiply 50% by the number of legs.

2 legs - 50% x 50% = 25%
3 legs - 50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%

2 legs
25% x 2.6 (13/5 odds) = 65

65 - 75 (odds of losing) = 10% expected loss


So now, lets do the calculation for a 3 leg parlay at 7-1 odds.

Odds of winning a 3 leg parlay is 12.5%.

12.5% x 7 (7-1 odds) = 87.5%

87.5% - 87.5% (odds of losing) = 0% expected loss

Your expected loss is ZERO.

So yeah....that's a tremendous advantage. It implies that in the long run you will at least break even.

Look at is this way. Even if you blow through $1400 at $100 per bet you will eventually start winning and at least break even.

Another thing to note is that if this bookie is paying your friend $420 for a $60 bet, he is giving it to him at +100 per leg. Was your friend allowed to take the points with that bet? If so, you can clean this bookie out in no time.

Sound too good to be true? Probably is...

[hutennis]

Your expected loss is ZERO.

Your expected win is ZERO

So yeah....that's a tremendous advantage.

In what way?

It implies that in the long run you will at least break even.

It implies that in the long run bookie will at least break even.

Why do you insist on considering only one side of the coin?

[gamblingisfun]

Bookie takes 10% extra on each loss, so that eats into potential profits too

[Jikos]

Bookie takes 10% extra on each loss, so that eats into potential profits too

Well that makes it about the same as a regular parlay then... Risking 110 to win 700 (+636) vs risking 100 to win 600 (+600)... Just reduced juice

[SteveRyan]

In what way?

Lets assume that he would only allow you to parlay spread bets at any odds (-110 or whatever). I assume there's no way he would allow you to parlay massive favs on the ML and still pay you 7-1.

Now, if you place 8 separate $100 3 leg parlay spread bets and he is STILL paying you 7-1 regardless of the odds (-110), then he is taking $70 juice as opposed to $104 if you had placed those same bets under normal parlay odds.

8 bets at $100 each with 10% juice = $770 investment (Remember, he is not taking the money up front). For the one bet that you win, he pays you $700 with no juice (I guess he is only taking juice on the bets you lose). So you are out $70.

At normal odds, your investment on those 8 bets would be $800. For the win, you would get paid $695.79 losing $104.21 in juice.

So in that sense, it technically changes the odds from -110 to -106.4 for a normal parlay. You are paying less juice with his offer.

[hutennis]

You are paying less juice with his offer.

How paying less juice became "a tremendous advantage." all of a sudden?
Paying less juice will only get you bleed to death slower. That's it.

[u21c3f6]

How paying less juice became "a tremendous advantage." all of a sudden?
Paying less juice will only get you bleed to death slower. That's it.

You are not playing fair.

For the winning player it also means more profit. Regardless, it is also an advantage to lose less.

Joe.

[tto827]

How paying less juice became "a tremendous advantage." all of a sudden?
Paying less juice will only get you bleed to death slower. That's it.

Because someone with an edge who can consistently beat the market only has to do so by 7 cents, not 11 to make a profit in this case.