1. #1
    onthewhat
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    Question on when you should bet

    Lets say I cap the game and I come up with the following:

    Team A -4
    Team B +4

    What are the lines in which I should bet either side. Does juice play a factor whether you should bet a certain line (ex: Matchbook line vs standard 20 cent line)?

    Also, does it make a difference if the spread is 4 or 24?

    Thanks.

    Edit: I should probably mention I'm talking about college basketball sides.
    Last edited by onthewhat; 12-20-08 at 10:26 PM.

  2. #2
    durito
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    You shouldn't bet at all.

  3. #3
    Ganchrow
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    Well first off, many posters consistently misuse the term "juice" (and its synonym "vig").

    Juice refers to the amount the a book expects to make off every dollar placed assuming either balanced action or an unbiased line.

    So for example a market of -110/-110 has about 4.55% juice, meaning that for every $100 bet into that market the books expect to keep (or "hold", which is why "juice" is also referred to as "theoretical hold") $4.55.

    So really you aren't asking about juice so much as you are about the payout odds, which is how much you'd stand to win off a unit bet. Payout odds can also be thought of as the "price" of a bet, which is a term you'll often find used synonymously within this context.

    So really what you're asking is how important is price when evaluating bet. The answer, it should come as no surprise is very important.

    The line represents a particular aspect of the bet you're buying. At a given price, a line of -2.5 is obviously better than a line of a -3.5. But just because it's "better" doesn't mean it's worth the extra cost.

    Think about it this way:

    You're looking to buy an Ipod and are faced with two options on an otherwise identical product. You can either buy the 80GB model or you can buy the 160GB model.

    If you look solely at the two items without regard to price you'd clearly choose the 160GB model. However, if you found the 160GB to be 5 times the cost of the 80GB you might very well change your mind.

    Obviously, he 160GB Ipod is analogous to the line of -2.5, while the 80GB Ipod l to the line of -3.5. The first is obviously better "item", but the question remains as to whether or not you believe it worth the extra cost.

    You might want to check out http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...rcentages.html and http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...ical-hold.html.

  4. #4
    Peep
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    If I make a line in college basketball, I like to have a number 1.5 better than that to bet.

    As in your example, if I made the line 4, I would bet a +5.5 or a -2.5. I need at least that much margin since I am not a professional linesmaker, and may well be missing something important.

  5. #5
    onthewhat
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    Thanks

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