NFL Teaser Strategy Questions

[husky]

Hey all, I have a few questions regarding NFL teasers that I would appreciate some help on. I know Justin7, LT Profits, hedgehog, and others seem to be knowledgeable about teasers from what I have researched.

1) Most know of basic strategy/"wong" teasers. Now, many books shade their lines against these, but just for the sake of argument, is it EVER a good idea to tease "wong" leg and take the other side ATS? For example, say a book is offering -7 early in the week, while other books (Pinnacle, 5 Dimes, etc.) have their lines at -7 or -7.5. Let's say one would tease the -7 down to -1, and if the favorite moved to -8+ later on in the week, would it be "smart" to play the dog then at +8 or better? I have a feeling that the answer is no, but I can't quite wrap my head around how I would determine if doing so would be +EV longterm.

2) I understand that a 4-team (6 point) teaser at +300 odds is more "valuable" than a 2-team teaser at -110 odds, as the breakeven needed per leg is less for a 4-teamer at +300. My question is, if a 3-team teaser is +165 odds, is it a "bad move" to do 4-teamers at +300 instead of two teamers at -110 as a push would reduce the 4-team teaser to a 3-teamer at +165, when the odds should be +180.

3) Finally, if ties on a 4-team teaser reduce to a 3-team/2-team teaser, would taking a -7 favorite be -EV because doing so would cause a "push" thus reducing the 4-team teaser?


Look forward to the help.

[husky]

Sorry I forgot one question:

If I am able to get -110 on 2-teamers, -165 on 3-teamers, and +300 on 4-teamers, I am assuming that doing 4-teamers are ALWAYS the better value? Or would doing 2-teamers in round robins reduce variance?

Thank you again.

[husky]

Bump

[possum11]

learn how to spot RLM and play 13 point teasers in the NFL . bread and butter.

[husky]

learn how to spot RLM and play 13 point teasers in the NFL . bread and butter.

Breakeven for 13 point teasers are close to 90% per leg correct? Do your teasers cross the zero? Also, what are your parameters for RLM and what site do you use for public %?

[husky]

Could use some more help here fellas!

Thanks much

[husky]

Maybe no answers are a good sign!

[NunyaBidness]

Make a push chart, derive your answers from there.

[husky]

Make a push chart, derive your answers from there.

I understand the push percentages, but I can't seem to quantify whether or not to do a 4-team teaser at +300 when a 3-team teaser is +165 as pushes will happen on a 4-teamer which will reduce to a 3-teamer at +165 when it should be +180

[statnerds]

Conquering Risk

Chapter XIII

Free Money

[theclutch7]

If the favorite goes up two points! tease the dog! if the dog goes down 2 pts tease the favorite!
2 team teaser paley are good then take same teamse straight! dogs win 75% of the time! check the staTS! iST 5 WEEKS THE LINES ARE WRONG OR TRYING TO AVERAGE OUT! over unders are the average of the teams combined 2 teams in thjat game, check the print sheets on covers! if two teams ave 23 and the other 27 the over under will oen lower or highewrby 2-3 points say 47, 48, boths terams havr to play a perfect mistake free game to go over, watch for defenses, 2 top defenses take the under 2 top offenses take the over, watch the injuries! a qb out 7-14pts off, a running back 7 points off. if you want the dog take the late line as the points go up! if you want the favorite take the early line! hope it helps! don't bet with your heart, you'll lose all the time. R

[theclutch7]

bet a two team for 500

[theclutch7]

The more games you bet the more you lose, real pros only bet 2, 3, 5 a day if that!

[a4u2fear]

Tease dogs more than favs

Tease good teams not bad teams. Lines will be bigger but you know you can count on players like Tom Brady to score at least 28 points more than Stafford to score 20

do not cross 0

[husky]

Thanks for the help so far guys. Im still convinced that teasers involving key numbers are the only way to profit doing teasers. I would love all other insight

[husky]

Well pre-season Wong dogs did a smaller profit this year so far. Any other insight we can work on here before the regular season gets rolling?

[husky]

4-team dog Wong teaser available tonight in pre-season. LT Profits or Justin7 check in please. Would love to talk about teasers for this season

[husky]

Still no thoughts here? Would appreciate a few heads thinking this strategy through. Broncos were a "Wong" at some books

[Enkhbat]

what is WONG

[husky]

what is WONG

Wong teaser = Basic Strategy teaser (crossing the 3 and 7 in the NFL)

[statnerds]

You don't need other people to weigh in. you need to understand that each leg of a teaser has a price attached to it. you need to understand your minimum winning percentage on each leg to break even. then go find the teaser opportunities that provide you with a winning percentage historically higher than your now understood, required B/E winning %. your own research on this topic should be completed in under one day.

most importantly you need to understand what different prices at different books suggests.

[Koldazzice]

If team A is -3.5 and you use a 7 point teaser to make them +3.5 would be the ONLY way I would ever cross zero on a teaser. Taking a team from -4 to +2 obviously is retarded

[StackinGreen]

The more games you bet the more you lose, real pros only bet 2, 3, 5 a day if that!

This is one of the reasons I would find the contests like at LVH particularly difficult. I know that's the deal for everyone but surprisingly my best game by far is the NFL and they say it's hardest to beat. I typically play 3 games (heavy) MAXIMUM per week. I don't think you can expose that many games ... and some weeks there are even less. On average I play 2 a week and do well.

As for teasers, I would tell you that I'm down lifetime on 6-6.5-7s (thus don't play them anymore), I'm about even on 3 team 10 (maybe a bit ahead since I figured I'd just move to 4 team 13s once I was offered them) and far ahead on 4 team 13s. The key to the sweethearts is finding a book that will allow you to utilize totals on them. Scoring is at a premium in the NFL and unlike the college game, the totals have a much smaller standard deviation. If I have an over/under I'm betting medium to large I really doubt I've ever lost when adding 13 either way. The evolution of sweethearts has been interesting; most still offer 3-10 for -130, initially 4-13s were also -130, but then crept to -140 and -150. I noticed last year most offshores/locals struck them down or totally disabled the totals to be any component (if they are, they limit you to 2 totals on them). If you can't use totals I wouldn't make a habit of playing the (big) teasers ... sides have way higher deviation. I'd be interested in any responses to these questions:

1) Are you able to bet 3 team 10 pointers and 4 team 13 pointers? If so, what is your juice on them?
2) If yes to all the above, do you wager with offshores or with locals who control the menu, and if so how much do they control it?

Thanks. That's a quick take from playing the NFL for decades now --- and getting paid

[husky]

I have heard totals should never be teased.

[StackinGreen]

I have heard totals should never be teased.

Whoever told you that is either a very bad handicapper and/or doesn't want you to make money. Please note that I'm talking about sweethearts, as I would recommend against playing most 6-6.5-7s side or total

[Dom177]

3 spots out of my 5 teamer 10 point teaser yesterday were totals. Do your research, write down some leans, and tease as you see accordingly. Simple.

[husky]

What's better longterm? 3-team 10 point teasers at -120 or 4-team 13-point teasers at -125?

[NunyaBidness]

What's better longterm? 3-team 10 point teasers at -120 or 4-team 13-point teasers at -125?

Make a push chart, compare edge, rinse, repeat.

[StackinGreen]

What's better longterm? 3-team 10 point teasers at -120 or 4-team 13-point teasers at -125?

4 team 13 at that juice, no doubt (with totals allowed)

[byronbb]

You can reduce the vig too on a parlay if you say, tease two -6.5 teams down to a pair of PKs.

[getlucky2win]

Is the sbr half pt calculator accurate?

[BroncosBettor]

My personal favorite teasers and actually the only teaser I would play is a 3 team 10 point teaser in the NFL only. The juice is -120 at Bookmaker and I have done pretty well with those in the past. I think it's a good bet because the juice is not too bad and having 10 extra points is great. Lines are so sharp and so tight, especially in the NFL that I like these a lot.

[BigdaddyQH]

The more games you bet the more you lose, real pros only bet 2, 3, 5 a day if that!

Excellent advice, and real pros NEVER wager on parlays or teasers.

[Cheme82]

Dude how are you getting that 3-teamers should be +180? I have the break even at +149. Also, a 4-teamer at +400 has a massive edge. Of course you're only gonna hit these around 30% of the time so br management has to be accounted for but the edge is huge.

[Poogs]

I dont think there is one accurate post in this entire thread.

Dont ever tease totals, wait until close to gametime and cross the 3 and 7. If you cant master wong teasers you should look for other work...not trying to be a dick but thats the honest truth.

4 teamers at +300 is the best value that you've mentioned.

Theres plenty of information on wong teasers in books and online...do an hours worth of research and if you still dont get it then I dunno man.