My line compared to book's line

[Jackie Moon]

So I have developed a model which has shown promise, but have not used for betting yet. I would like to simulate the remaining MLB season and keep track of what would have happened had I bet. But my question is, if my model says the line should be -150 for a team but my book has -125 how much should I bet? Should I adjust my bet if it is more like my line -200 book's line -125? What if my line is -110 and book is +100, would I load up because the great price? Any insight would be greatly appreciated, and any apologies if this is too novice for anyone here.

[NunyaBidness]

Kelly Criterion.

My guess is if you haven't heard of kelly your model is pretty much worthless. Just a guess though.

[Gingervitis]

Use the Kelly Calculator:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/

If this is unfamiliar to you let me know and I can walk you through how to use it.

[Nick@SI]

I would track it first before worrying about bet sizes. If edge isn't their then you are worrying about something that won't matter either way. Another reason to track first is want to make sure your model is putting out realistic number. Ex: are the team's your model says should be -150 really winning 60% of their games or at very least better than the implied probabikty from the betting line.
That said if does prove to have an edge then Kelly be one option also could stick to flat betting. Good luck.

[Jackie Moon]

Kelly Criterion.

My guess is if you haven't heard of kelly your model is pretty much worthless. Just a guess though.

I've tried it before but wasn't sure if anyone had any other ideas. Last time I tried it I was even more inexperience than now, so I'll give it a shot... and oh, btw my model is probably pretty much worthless anyway but cut me some slack.

[sorinnn]

hope you'll post the outcome after a decent sample, no matter how it goes

[HoldenRg]

I highly recommend keeping your bets at 1% of your bankroll no matter what . If your model proves precise then you should profit at the end of every week and build up your bankroll slow but steady


PEACE!

[footballace]

I agree with HoldenRg. If you would like to stay in this game for a while you have to manage everything. Every once in a while have fun and juice it up when you see something you LOVE but stay concentrated

[hutennis]

So I have developed a model which has shown promise, but have not used for betting yet. I would like to simulate the remaining MLB season and keep track of what would have happened had I bet. But my question is, if my model says the line should be -150 for a team but my book has -125 how much should I bet?

The bet size would not concern me at all.
The only question on my mind would be "Where the difference is coming from?" and I would make it my utmost priority to get as close to understanding on this as possible.
If you can not, you have nothing going on for you and setting yourself up for disappointment and loss of money.