Super Bowl props

**onthewhat** · 01-19-09, 11:22 PM

Do you usually make a killing on SB props?

What are the limits on props for the Super Bowl, in Vegas and online?

**Justin7** · 01-19-09, 11:45 PM

Most vegas shops have limits of 1-2k for the major books, 500 for the minors. Internet books typically open at 200-500, and go up to 1k+ as you get closer.

You could bet nothing but props and make a comfortable living.

**SlickFazzer** · 01-20-09, 12:11 AM

I need to do some study on the topic of props.

**xyz** · 01-20-09, 12:52 AM

Yes, I would like to learn about Justin's way of evaluating props for Super Bowl.

**pimike** · 01-20-09, 12:54 AM

O/T in Superbowl

I am betting a tie in the Superbowl Bigtime, it has never happened, but shit it has to happen one of these times.

I'm will bet as much as they will let me put on it.

**Justin7** · 01-20-09, 01:01 AM

Early ones I liked at Greek:
No 2-pt conversion attempt -260
No successful 2-pt conversion -650

And of course the perrennial no overtime at just about any price, but wait until game day for that.

**Peeig** · 01-20-09, 05:21 AM

Justin, do you bet props in all sports, or just NFL?

**Justin7** · 01-20-09, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by Peeig

Justin, do you bet props in all sports, or just NFL?

I'll do them in any sport, but most of the time it's not worth the effort. But if I can spend 72 hours and bet a lot (like Super Bowl), it's a good use of time.

**durito** · 01-20-09, 10:02 AM

Justin,

How many more prop betting options are available in vegas for the super bowl compared to online? Is it worth traveling for?

**LT Profits** · 01-20-09, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Early ones I liked at Greek:
No 2-pt conversion attempt -260
No successful 2-pt conversion -650

And of course the perrennial no overtime at just about any price, but wait until game day for that.

Although it seems obvious from those odds that if there is no 2-pt conversion attempted, the "not successful" is a winner, but remember there was an uproar a few year ago when a book graded that as No Action, saying that a conversion had to be attempted for the No Successful to have action.

I guess what I am saying in a long-winded manner is to read the fine print in the rules at your book.

**durito** · 01-20-09, 10:23 AM

No missed extra pt -1500

**fiveteamer** · 01-20-09, 10:39 AM

Do you bet on the coin flip?

**durito** · 01-20-09, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by fiveteamer

Do you bet on the coin flip?

If it's offered at +odds, sure.

**Justin7** · 01-20-09, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Although it seems obvious from those odds that if there is no 2-pt conversion attempted, the "not successful" is a winner, but remember there was an uproar a few year ago when a book graded that as No Action, saying that a conversion had to be attempted for the No Successful to have action.

I guess what I am saying in a long-winded manner is to read the fine print in the rules at your book.

I remember that dispute. They originally wanted to grade the muffed PAT as an attempt... but I ended up settling with several books (including 1 Vegas book) on a push. If that happened again, I could deal with it a lot better.

**fiveteamer** · 01-20-09, 11:09 AM

Do you ever bet basketball props???

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-20-09, 11:11 AM

i'm interested in the o/u of warners passing yards...don't think he'll be successful at all

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-20-09, 11:11 AM

also the o/u on total sacks in the game

**Justin7** · 01-20-09, 11:14 AM

Sportslock,

I've priced these 2, but haven't bet them yet.

**Art Vandeleigh** · 01-20-09, 02:06 PM

Last time I was in Vegas during Super Bowl time was 4 years ago, but back then I remember it was the Aladdin sports book that seemed to be the most out of step with the others when it came to Super Bowl props.

**xyz** · 01-20-09, 02:07 PM

I see this prop on Bookmaker:

STEELERS GET THE BALL FIRST +135
CARDINALS GET THE BALL FIRST -165

This implies the Steelers may choose to go on defense first if they win the toss. How likely is that?

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-20-09, 02:27 PM

they also may want to go against that for 2 reasons, 1. the cards will expect it. 2. don't give them the chance to get their offense in rhythm early

**Bread** · 01-20-09, 03:59 PM

I love playing me some Prop bets...especially on the big game.

I'll be keeping an eye on any advice you might give up Justin.

**LT Profits** · 01-20-09, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by xyz

I see this prop on Bookmaker:

STEELERS GET THE BALL FIRST +135
CARDINALS GET THE BALL FIRST -165

This implies the Steelers may choose to go on defense first if they win the toss. How likely is that?

No, it implies if the Cards win the toss, they will more than likely want the ball and if the Steelers win the toss, they will more than likely defer to the second half.

**onthewhat** · 01-20-09, 11:08 PM

Justin will you be making a video handicapping the Super Bowl?

**Ryangene** · 01-20-09, 11:30 PM

I really think that Willie Parker is MVP of the game and has a huge game. I'm taking all overs in his props.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 01-20-09, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by durito

Justin,

How many more prop betting options are available in vegas for the super bowl compared to online? Is it worth traveling for?

The Hilton offers a book of props every year on the SB. It's amazing. It's about 50 pages long. That alone is certainly worth traveling for...

**Ryangene** · 01-20-09, 11:34 PM

Is that about the best sportsbook to go to when in vegas?

**Justin7** · 01-21-09, 03:53 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

The Hilton offers a book of props every year on the SB. It's amazing. It's about 50 pages long. That alone is certainly worth traveling for...

This is why my last couple days have been hectic. I put in over 80 in 2.5 hours tonight.

**xyz** · 01-21-09, 04:06 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Early ones I liked at Greek:
No 2-pt conversion attempt -260
No successful 2-pt conversion -650

And of course the perrennial no overtime at just about any price, but wait until game day for that.

Justin, why wait until game day for no overtime? Do you expect the line to be more favorable for no overtime as we move closer to game day? Thanks for the insight.

**pico** · 01-21-09, 04:32 AM

it was tails last year. so i think i'll bet tails again

**Smogs** · 01-21-09, 06:20 AM

looking forward to some of the props on offer, justin will have estimated this better than me but i reckon warner throws 220 yards. Maybe 3 turnovers for ari and 1 pass td

Oh and pico, thanks for teaching me what money is in russian, im learning fast - я говорю по русски не плохо

**pico** · 01-21-09, 06:55 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

looking forward to some of the props on offer, justin will have estimated this better than me but i reckon warner throws 220 yards. Maybe 3 turnovers for ari and 1 pass td

Oh and pico, thanks for teaching me what money is in russian, im learning fast - я говорю по русски не плохо

no need to learn russian. oil went down a shitload...russia is done.

**Smogs** · 01-21-09, 07:52 AM

lol, i'd better cancel my russian classes then

**themajormt** · 01-21-09, 10:52 AM

Justin are you going to post what you are on for the props??

GL!