Blindly beating the closing number = profitable?

[ohdear]

I'm new to sports betting and before I signed up with 5Dimes, I tinkered around with *********s..

The unique thing about this site is that they let you cancel your bets after you make them, as long as it is before the game has started. This allows the bettor to always beat the closing number.

For instance, you grab Philly at -4 on Tuesday, and by Sunday they are -3. You can cancel your Philly -4 and switch to -3 Philly.

Another example would be grabbing Philly at -4 on Tuesday, and by Sunday they are -5. You hold on to your Philly -4 and beat the closing number.


My question is, if you did this with...say...20 games per day, and beat the closing number, would you make a profit in the long run even if you had NO clue about the teams you're betting on?

I couldn't name you one player on Georgia Tech's basketball team, but if I have them at +12.5 and by game-time they are +11, will I profit long-term?

[Vesuvius]

Of course you would but what's the catch?

What is this cent sports?

[Vesuvius]

haha I just read about cent sports, very funny...no wonder no one uses it.

in conclusion, no REAL book will let you cancel your bet.

[ohdear]

yeah it's obviously not for serious bettors or anything, but once you get a decent balance you can win $10 per game.

in THEORY, if you were to bet 25-30 games a day, even betting $11 to win $10 on every bet would give a decent profit over the long run if you can beat the closing number by a point or so i think?

[Sinister Cat]

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

[LT Profits]

The answer to the question is obviously yes, everyone's goal should be to beat the closing line. If you can consistently beat it by a full point, you WILL win, no doubt about it. Now being able to do that at a "real" book is the challenge.

[TPowell]

I've heard a lot of people say yes but I dont know. It really depends on the sport because if you blindly just get the best lines you can in college basketball, you'll get buried more than likely.

[reno cool]

You will win if you consistently beat the closing number by a big enough margin. But this is not to say that your bet is a bad one if the line moved in the opposite direction. Furthermore, there is some debate as to what books are trying to accomplish when setting, moving lines.

[donjuan]

It really depends on the sport because if you blindly just get the best lines you can in college basketball, you'll get buried more than likely.

Wat?

[TPowell]

line shopping isnt HUGE in college basketball like in other sports for the most part

[Arilou]

If you can beat the closing line and lose in the long run, that requires you to go under 50% against the closing line. If you can do that, you can do better than 50% by betting the other side of every game you would otherwise bet (which I refer to as the George strategy, after the Seinfeld episode) and it is highly unlikely whatever method you're using to beat the closing line carries that much meaning. If you can beat the closing line enough to buy out on post, of course, you can earn a living that way regardless. The key is to make sure you're beating the line by enough to make up for the juice you are paying. Getting -5.5 -110 on a basektball game that closes -6 isn't bad, but it's no way to make a living on its own. Getting -5 -110 is excellent, as is -5.5 -105.

[donjuan]

line shopping isnt HUGE in college basketball like in other sports for the most part

This is the Think Tank. I think you'll be more at home in Players Talk.

[rjt721]

if you blindly just get the best lines you can in college basketball, you'll get buried more than likely.

So if you blindly bet the worst lines you'll turn a profit?

[LT Profits]

I think what TPowel means is that the extra points aren't AS valuable in CBB as in other sports. But that just means you will WIN LESS and does not mean you will lose, and obviously getting the best number still gives you the best chance to maximize profits. Thus, your approach should be no different than other sports.

[TPowell]

I'm just saying that most college basketball lines arent that sharp unless they are big games. Plus, I always bet early on and usually get the best lines.

[durito]

I think what TPowel means is that the extra points aren't AS valuable in CBB as in other sports.

They are worth more.

[LT Profits]

durito.

Not saying I agree or disagree with him, just trying to interpret.

That said, do you have evidence that points in CBB are more valuable than NBA. Just looking for a Yes or a No, not for specific results.

Reason I ask is that intuitively, one would think that pro lines would be much tighter, especially with 869 CBB games on a given Saturday.

[rookie]

durito.

Not saying I agree or disagree with him, just trying to interpret.

That said, do you have evidence that points in CBB are more valuable than NBA. Just looking for a Yes or a No, not for specific results.

Reason I ask is that intuitively, one would think that pro lines would be much tighter, especially with 869 CBB games on a given Saturday.

Interesting point about sharp vs soft lines. But, a point adv should be more for a 40-min game than 48-min one. Half-point calculator indicates the same.

[TPowell]

yeah but whats easier to cap, pro athletes or college athletes that NOBODY has heard of? Lot of nuances in college basketball that don't exist in the pros.

[Thremp]

This thread should've ended at "Yes."

[LT Profits]

This thread should've ended at "Yes."

Oh that's not even debatable. I guess I should have started another thread with my NBA vs. CBB question.

[smitch124]

I'm up to 40 cents at cents sports!!

[TPowell]

lol I made 5 accounts on there when they opened, I think they are all at around $1

[durito]

durito.

Not saying I agree or disagree with him, just trying to interpret.

That said, do you have evidence that points in CBB are more valuable than NBA. Just looking for a Yes or a No, not for specific results.

Reason I ask is that intuitively, one would think that pro lines would be much tighter, especially with 869 CBB games on a given Saturday.

yes

whether the lines are sharper is a different question entirely

[smitch124]

They are worth more.

Is that due mostly to the fact that there are less points scored in the NCAA?

[floridagolfer]

Even if it's possible to assure yourself the best possible closing number, let me disagree with the idea that it will noticeably improve your profit margin. It will do that only if the difference shows up in the final score.

For example, it doesn't make any difference if the closing line in a game is -10 and I get the favorite at -8 and it wins by 14. During any given week when there are 300 games, there aren't enough decided by that half a point, or 1, to make a difference.

Good idea. Just not practical.

[LT Profits]

Even if it's possible to assure yourself the best possible closing number, let me disagree with the idea that it will noticeably improve your profit margin. It will do that only if the difference shows up in the final score.

For example, it doesn't make any difference if the closing line in a game is -10 and I get the favorite at -8 and it wins by 14. During any given week when there are 300 games, there aren't enough decided by that half a point, or 1, to make a difference.

Good idea. Just not practical.

But you still achieve the best possible results by getting the best possible number, And even if that results in only one or two extra winners a week, those do add up and will improve your winning % over time.

[durito]

Even if it's possible to assure yourself the best possible closing number, let me disagree with the idea that it will noticeably improve your profit margin. It will do that only if the difference shows up in the final score.

For example, it doesn't make any difference if the closing line in a game is -10 and I get the favorite at -8 and it wins by 14. During any given week when there are 300 games, there aren't enough decided by that half a point, or 1, to make a difference.

Good idea. Just not practical.

[ShamsWoof10]

Even if it's possible to assure yourself the best possible closing number, let me disagree with the idea that it will noticeably improve your profit margin. It will do that only if the difference shows up in the final score.

For example, it doesn't make any difference if the closing line in a game is -10 and I get the favorite at -8 and it wins by 14. During any given week when there are 300 games, there aren't enough decided by that half a point, or 1, to make a difference.

Good idea. Just not practical.

I TOOOOOOOOOOOOTALLY AGREE WITH THIS POST...

In order for it to matter as the above points out the games would have to be within a half pt. or pt. of the number 1 out of 21 times just to be even at -110 odds...

I tried this for one year (05') and it was a very slow death... I had -105 books back then and got a full point most of the time...

First of all there is no doubt the pro lines are tighter (NFL NBA) then college sports...

College sports was miserable... The pros middled more but barely enough to turn a profit... In order to turn a profit for the NBA these days you needed a FULL POINT at less then -110 odds and good luck there...

All you have to do is look at the push frequencies SBR puts up and you will see it's not that often... Posters on this site make it "sound" like action betting where if you beat the number you get rewarded more for it...

I also would like to add that this would matter FAR MORE for halftime betting which is all I do and IT DOES MATTER... Beating a gameline is useless when I can beat the number by the same amount for a 2Half bet and anyone that thinks the score lands on the number equal to or more for gamelines then halflines has no clue what they are talking about...

[durito]

I TOOOOOOOOOOOOTALLY AGREE WITH THIS POST...

In order for it to matter as the above points out the games would have to be within a half pt. or pt. of the number 1 out of 21 times just to be even at -110 odds...

I tried this for one year (05') and it was a very slow death... I had -105 books back then and got a full point most of the time...

First of all there is no doubt the pro lines are tighter (NFL NBA) then college sports...

College sports was miserable... The pros middled more but barely enough to turn a profit... In order to turn a profit for the NBA these days you needed a FULL POINT at less then -110 odds and good luck there...

All you have to do is look at the push frequencies SBR puts up and you will see it's not that often... Posters on this site make it "sound" like action betting where if you beat the number you get rewarded more for it...

Can we move this to players talk

[floridagolfer]

But you still achieve the best possible results by getting the best possible number, And even if that results in only one or two extra winners a week, those do add up and will improve your winning % over time.

I'll agree with that. It will improve your winning percentage.

[smitch124]

Is that due mostly to the fact that there are less points scored in the NCAA?

No answer to this question?

[donjuan]

For example, it doesn't make any difference if the closing line in a game is -10 and I get the favorite at -8 and it wins by 14. During any given week when there are 300 games, there aren't enough decided by that half a point, or 1, to make a difference.

Or the opposite of this. Consider the following scenario:

Pinnacle, Olympic and Bookmaker all have a CBB game at -7.5 and the total isn't extremely low or high. If this number is efficient, the favorite will win by more than 7.5 50% of the time and the underdog will cover 7.5 the other 50% of the time. Now let's say I am able to get the favorite at -6.5 -110. Thanks to Ganchrow's handy-dandy half-point calculator, you see that the push frequency of 7 for CBB is 4.03%. So instead of the favorite covering 50% of the time, it now covers 54% of the time and you have bet with +EV.

[donjuan]

Is that due mostly to the fact that there are less points scored in the NCAA?

Yes. I still don't really know why the 1 is more valuable in college bball than in the NBA.

[therber2]

lol I made 5 accounts on there when they opened, I think they are all at around $1

So when one wins it feeds the others? ....nice. You must be rich.