A quick research question/quiz

**Conan** · 02-07-13, 12:51 PM

yes

**matthew919** · 02-07-13, 12:59 PM

If we are allowed to repeat this exact scenario (say on the order of 100 times), then yes.
If this a one time bet only, and no other wager opportunities exist in the known universe- then no.

I ain't made-a-money.

**tto827** · 02-07-13, 01:03 PM

Yes

**yak merchant** · 02-07-13, 01:46 PM

Actually no. Not because the math doesn't work, but because it works too well. I'm pretty sure if you are offering such an awesome deal, you are going to backdoor me. I'm sure you will find a way to tell me I cheated when I do win. 9 times out of ten that doesn't happen and I think I got a fair shake, but if it does, you are going to f... me. I'd consider it if your 1400 was sitting on the table next to my 100 and I'm the only one with a pistol in the room.

**buby74** · 02-07-13, 02:55 PM

Only if my bankroll is more than $3250 (kelly criterion). The fact this bet won't be repeated is irrelevant as I will have other +ev opportunities in the future .

**davidsiegel** · 02-07-13, 05:50 PM

Thanks for the responses. Obviously, this is a research question, not real life. You can assume that the money goes on the table and that you have as much money as you have right now. It's not a gambling session mixed in with others. It's a one-time offer from a stranger who's willing to pony up the cash. Anyone else? I'd love to get dozens of responses and see what people say.

**EXhoosier10** · 02-07-13, 07:44 PM

yes

**u21c3f6** · 02-07-13, 07:54 PM

No. Even though the wager is +EV, the one-shot deal makes it gambling to me.

Joe.

**James D** · 02-08-13, 12:08 AM

I "value the money" is a very vague statement. It would depend on how much I had of course. However from your explanation I would say NO.

**Bosseman22** · 02-08-13, 01:30 AM

no don't like games of chance

**snapperman2** · 02-08-13, 07:46 AM

yes

**Kolotoure** · 02-08-13, 08:01 AM

Seems like it hinges on the value/utility $100 has to each individual person

**statnerds** · 02-08-13, 09:11 AM

yes

**EXhoosier10** · 02-08-13, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by Kolotoure

Seems like it hinges on the value/utility $100 has to each individual person

this was my thinking at first, but then he said that you could afford to lose $100. Why the F not, at that point

**u21c3f6** · 02-08-13, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

this was my thinking at first, but then he said that you could afford to lose $100. Why the F not, at that point

Because I don't like to lose! When I look for an edge, I also look at what is my expectation of showing a profit. Since this is only a one-shot deal with only a small chance of being profitable, I would pass.

Joe.

**Conan** · 02-08-13, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by u21c3f6

Because I don't like to lose! When I look for an edge, I also look at what is my expectation of showing a profit. Since this is only a one-shot deal with only a small chance of being profitable, I would pass.

Joe.

Its the same with all sports lines all blackjack mach bet deals and what not. Each individual line you bet because you feel you have the edge is a one shot deal. There is no way that exact game will ever happen again there is no guarantee you will find a another game tomorrow where you think the line is favorable. No guarantee the FBI wont shut down your book and you wont be able to wager. The point here is you have an edge here, assuming the proper bankroll issues witch have bean discussed above, your either the kind of person who jumps on +EV opportunities or you are not.

**Teamprofit101** · 02-08-13, 12:55 PM

How can this be +EV if you only get one shot?

**Conan** · 02-08-13, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by Teamprofit101

How can this be +EV if you only get one shot?

the same way a mach play at BJ is +EV with only one shot if this was the only game you ever played you have i 9 in 10 shot of dropping 100 and a 1 in 10 shot of making 1400 but if you always take these positive opportunities even though this one is only available once others will become available down the line.

**BuddyBear** · 02-08-13, 01:54 PM

Yes. Absolutely. See Kahnamen and Tversky's (1979) prospect theory for further explanation.

**brettd** · 02-08-13, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by davidsiegel

Dear members,

I run a workshop for business decisionmakers on cognitive biases and statistical decisionmaking. I'd like to ask a research question here. Just answer yes or no in the reply box:

I have a bag with 9 white marbles and 1 black marble. If you give me $100, I will let you draw one marble out of the bag. If it's white, i keep your money. If it's black, I will give you $1400.

Assuming you can afford to lose $100 but that this is real money and you value it, and that you can't do it a second time: do you take this bet?

From an +EV perspective, of course.

This comes down to whether you have enough capital to take this opportunity without having the investment become -EG to your bankroll/capital/assets etc.

**James D** · 02-08-13, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by Teamprofit101

How can this be +EV if you only get one shot?

It is +EV for sure regardless of how many shots you get, one or ten thousand. You are getting 13-1 on your bet and the odds of winning are 9-1. That it is +EV is not in dispute from a pure mathematical standpoint.

Your personal circumstance is what decides whether you should make the bet. Let me give you 2 extremes that are just more extreme examples of the question at hand.

1. You are a gambler and you only get one shot at the example posted above for 100 dollars. Odds are as described, 9-1 shot to win 13-1. You are a very successful gambler with millions at your disposal to gamble. This decision is very easy the answer is YES

2. You are not a gambler and have a net worth of 220k I offer you a similar chance only with 999 black marbles and only 1 winning white marble. The bet is for 200k if you defy the odds and pick the winning marble you will be paid 210 million dollars. Now from a strictly statistical point of view this is a good bet. The odds of winning are 999-1 so the payout should only be 200 million dollars (999-1) however I am paying you 210 million dollars. So the payout is actually 1049-1. However only a fool would risk virtually everything they have on a one time 999-1 shot. In this case even though the math says yes the answer is a RESOUNDING NO.

**dbear808** · 02-08-13, 03:45 PM

Anytime you have a gambling proposition that is +EV, you must take advantage of it. As stated in the proposition by the OP, this is a pure gambling opportunity. There are no excuses related to your financial situation that would preclude you from gambling in this situation. My answer to the question is YES.

**James D** · 02-08-13, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by dbear808

Anytime you have a gambling proposition that is +EV, you must take advantage of it. As stated in the proposition by the OP, this is a pure gambling opportunity. There are no excuses related to your financial situation that would preclude you from gambling in this situation. .

Not true.

So if your entire net worth is 500k and I offer to flip a coin and will pay you 501k if you win but take your 500k if you lose then you would agree to the flip?

**Conan** · 02-08-13, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by dbear808

Anytime you have a gambling proposition that is +EV, you must take advantage of it. As stated in the proposition by the OP, this is a pure gambling opportunity. There are no excuses related to your financial situation that would preclude you from gambling in this situation. My answer to the question is YES.

You need to understand bankroll witch was attempted to be clarified by the question but he wasn't apparently coverd completely.

**dbear808** · 02-08-13, 07:25 PM

I am not going to waste my time and energy responding to something that is obvious. The Op asked a question with set parameters. In that vacuum, the answer is yes.

**James D** · 02-08-13, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by dbear808

Anytime you have a gambling proposition that is +EV, you must take advantage of it. As stated in the proposition by the OP, this is a pure gambling opportunity. There are no excuses related to your financial situation that would preclude you from gambling in this situation. My answer to the question is YES.

Whether you decide to "waste your time and energy responding doesn't make a difference. This post of your is 100% wrong.
That is what is 100% obvious.

**Miz** · 02-08-13, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by buby74

Only if my bankroll is more than $3250 (kelly criterion). The fact this bet won't be repeated is irrelevant as I will have other +ev opportunities in the future .

This... and...

The poster that assumed shenanigans would take place is also wise to be suspicious of such a "too good to be true" offer.

**ClimbSomeRocks** · 02-08-13, 08:18 PM

yes. It's like reverse gambling. The payout is in your favor and this should be taken advantage of as well as any other future +EV wagers

**McFly86** · 02-09-13, 03:21 AM

Amusing how so many people ignore the info about "if you can afford to lose the $100". YES YOU PLAY THIS GAME

**runnershane14** · 02-09-13, 09:16 AM

yes

**gojetsgomoxies** · 02-09-13, 02:52 PM

obviously completely related to risk-aversion.

obvious yes to me unless i'm worried about cheating.

of course, if it was $100K at the same odds alot more people have to think about it, especially if you have to borrow some of the money.

most people wouldn't do $100K at slight +EV. but $100 no problem for most people at your very generous EV.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-09-13, 04:23 PM

How the penetrate is this retarded shit in the think tank?

There is no discussion to be had here. If your response to this question is anything other than "why the hell do you have to ask" then you really shouldn't be gambling.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-09-13, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Teamprofit101

How can this be +EV if you only get one shot?

**Teamprofit101** · 02-09-13, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Thank you

If i can give you points I would for being the most helpful ass of the day.