The 4-team, 10pt NCAAB teaser

**bigkahunabuz** · 01-30-13, 02:47 PM

Id like to hear more?

**matthew919** · 01-30-13, 03:22 PM

My thoughts are that you should not put off the testing until later. Do it now.

**Professor1215** · 01-30-13, 06:13 PM

Appreciate it matthew. Only reason I havent started is because it is a very lengthy process and with my "real" job and family to take care of, finding it hard to make time. I need to.

**matthew919** · 01-30-13, 07:27 PM

Yeah, always keep the priorities straight. If you can afford it, think about outsourcing the data processing to someone on freelancer.com. Might cost you a hundred bucks, but your time is probably more valuable.

**tto827** · 01-31-13, 11:02 PM

Check your PM's when you get a chance professor.

**Sawyer** · 02-01-13, 07:35 AM

Professor,

I appreciate your work but %80 -120 etc meanignless without a bet ample size. You need a large sample in order to justify/test it. My advice is, never say "Eurekaaaaaa" before you tested anything over a long, reliable period.

Good luck with your work..

**Professor1215** · 02-01-13, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Professor,

I appreciate your work but %80 -120 etc meanignless without a bet ample size. You need a large sample in order to justify/test it. My advice is, never say "Eurekaaaaaa" before you tested anything over a long, reliable period.

Good luck with your work..

Sawyer, that is some good advice. I bet $1 at a time, much because I have not put the work in. I have spent some time on it today though, so I am growing my sample size. Good news is that I have the data at my hands to get my sample size where it needs to be.

**a4u2fear** · 02-02-13, 08:22 AM

Originally posted by Professor1215

Sawyer, that is some good advice. I bet $1 at a time, much because I have not put the work in. I have spent some time on it today though, so I am growing my sample size. Good news is that I have the data at my hands to get my sample size where it needs to be.

good luck dude, I've found the 4 pt 13 pt NFL teaser to be profitable with a system I have, and it's back tested since 1985. Win rate is 4.5%, but its +EV. I'm assuming your win rate here will regress (if it is indeed a good system) to below 10% if at all.

**tto827** · 02-02-13, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

good luck dude, I've found the 4 pt 13 pt NFL teaser to be profitable with a system I have, and it's back tested since 1985. Win rate is 4.5%, but its +EV. I'm assuming your win rate here will regress (if it is indeed a good system) to below 10% if at all.

4 tm 13 pt?
And I'm assuming win rate is better than 4.5% to be +EV at whatever odds are being offered.

**a4u2fear** · 02-03-13, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by tto827

4 tm 13 pt?
And I'm assuming win rate is better than 4.5% to be +EV at whatever odds are being offered.

yea i meant 4 team 13 pt teaser. break even is 160/260=61.5%.

**Professor1215** · 02-04-13, 10:23 AM

Yea, regression is definitely starting to become evident with my work.

**infinite wisdom** · 02-05-13, 03:28 AM

heres some info/input that may help you better understand and assist you with this particular bet.

i personally bet a lot of basketball teasers, only college basketball, and do very well.
i possess data from over 15 years of games and process it in specific ways to exploit teaser betting.
while i cant possibly cover everything in short order, i will try to help.

first the math:

breaking down a 4T -120 teaser to its individual legs reveals that
each of the four legs approximates to a single bet having a lay price of -600 for a 10 point buy.

you must win all four legs to win the bet, so its essentially a four team parlay.
the math shows us that when risking 120 on a four team parlay at -600 per leg we will return slightly over 100.

120 wins 20
140 wins 23
163 wins 27
190 wins 32
============
120 wins 102

consider the success rate necessary to break even on -600 bets is 6/7 or 85.7%, pretty astronomical.
you must win individaul legs at over 86% just to profit and anything even slightly below will equate to losing at a pretty good clip.

looking at the profit/loss potential.

if you could hit 90% on each leg, .9^4 (.9*.9*.9*.9) = 65% winning teaser bets over time.
consequently, you would win 65 and lose 35 for every 100 bets.
losing -120 on 35 losers (-42) nets 23 bets per 100, a pretty good return of 23%.
keep in mind you have to be nearly 100% correct on each/every leg you select.
on the losing side, say your sucess rate is only 82% on each leg. .82^4 = .45 or 45 wins and 55 losers.
losing -120 on 55 losers (-66) nets -21 bets per 100, a pretty bad rate of loss -21%.

ADVICE >> even a small variance from the breakeven point will create big swings here.
you must be VERY certain about each and every leg, no throwing in any odd ones to complete your bet.
if available, use open teasers and fill with the best possible plays.

a further concern here is whether ties win or lose.
to lose a -600 bet over 1/2 point is DEVASTING.
your risking 600 trying to win only 100.
in ties lose, any leg teased off an even number has the potential to lose on a tie.
it would behoove you to look for only odd/half pt spreads, reducing your options to choose from.
if ties lose (as does the -120 4T 10pt at 5dimes),
you may be better off using the 10 point ties reduce option at 5dimes for -130.
the -130 price is only a small increase per leg over the -600 ties lose option.
in fact, it takes it to around -650 which isnt that much once the lay price is already that high.

some very quick math shows that if you lose a -600 ties lose bet when -650 ties push would have won,
you could have replaced that 600/100 losing bet with a -650 bet that pushed of 605/93.
for an average of 6 more dollars either way (win 7 less or lose 5 more) you saved/won the 600 you would have lost.
600/6 is 100:1 return on 6 dollars if the game falls.
note: this wasnt as high a expected it to be, but my point is that one should be doing some math to determine
their return on each and every point/half point.

ADVICE >> dont lose on ties.
use ties lose teasers only when using odd pointspreads.
use ties push teasers only when using even pointspreads.
if available, use open teasers only and fill them accordingly depending on the odd/even pointspread.

now for some help with selecting teams, and this if probably the best advice i can give anyone betting college bb teasers.

ADVICE >> DOGS ONLY, F|U|C|K FAVORITES.
ADVICE >> confine your teaser play to conference play. historically far better for close gms ATS. forget NOV and DEC.

use only dogs. primarily road dogs. i use very few home dogs.
no matter how tempting a favorite looks, fk em, resist using them.
the probability of teams covering given additional points highly favors taking dogs up and against taking favorites down.
just look at the margin of victory ATS when favorites cover, its often pretty small.
favored teams love dicking around the pointspread at the end of games, and you have 10 extra points.
then look at the margin of victory when dogs cover and oftentimes its quite a bit.

a hard fast rule of teaser betting is to never cross 0, which can only be done with favorites.
cross 0 and you lose a full point of value in the 10 point range you paid through the nose to buy for -600. big time waste.
so any favorite of basically 10 or less is going to cross 0. those teams as options should certainly be thrown out.
you'd be better off using the favorite money line anyway as it will probably be <-600 on those teams favored around 10.
if you ever decide to tease a favorite, start looking at -13 tzd down to -3 through -17 down to -7.
ultra high favorite lines probably arent the best either, 20> down to 10 leaves room for a stright up win of <10.

understand that there arent too many teams who historically make good favorite teases.
a few that come to mind are north carolina, memphis, george mason, byu, and a number of BIG 10 teams.

on the other hand, in depth study reveals huge numbers of teams that given extra points fare extremely well.
in general, some of the best confernces for teasing dogs are IVY, COLONIAL, MAAC.
individual teams are too great to list but ill share a few here.
as road dogs mind you : best when catching 13+ points after 6 pt tease.
not so hot when catching <11 after tease.
st josephs, boston college, nc state, georgetown, louisville, marquette, illinois, long beach st, uc davis, southern miss,
butler, columbia, cornell, princeton, yale, northern iowa, sw missouri st, air force, new mexico, jacksonville st, usc,
kentucky, south carolina, college charleston, davidson, furman, wofford, florida intl, north texas, gonzaga, san diego,
idaho, nevada.

remember, these are teams that have a EV+ while getting extra teaser points and may very well break even ats.

also you can tease the road dog AGAINST teams who as home favorites have low cover %ages against 6 extra points.
there are ALOT of these. when a home favorite of 7-15 tease the dog. a few are:
rhode island, richmond, st bonaventure, boston college, clemson, duke, wake forest, georgetown, south florida, villanova,
minnesota, cal irvine, long beach st, hofstra, james madison, northeastern, va commonwealth, marshall, southern miss,
tulsa, cleveland st, detroit mercy, loyola chicago, harvard, yale, fairfield, loyola maryland, marist, niagara, rider,
buffalo, central michigan, miami ohio, illinois st, northern iowa, boise st, UNLV, austin peay, murray st, arkansas,
lsu, college charleston, georgia southern, arkansas little rock, north texas, hawaii.

remember, these are teams whose ROAD OPPONENT has a EV+ when getting extra teaser point and may very well break even ats.

knowing both the propensity of the road dog to cover given extra points and the home team not to cover extra points is key.

i play mostly 6 pt teasers and generally look to get a minimum of 13 points.
this allows room in case a close game becomes a foulfest late, and for backdoor covers if a game is one sided late.
statistically, the best range for 6 points is to take 9-12 point dogs up to 15-18.
for 10 point teasers, the highest percentage plays would be 9-12 up to 19-22.
7-8 up to 17 and 18 are also good.
so far this year, dog line moves have been really good, especially those right before tip.
you add 10 point to those dog moves and you're probably going to be OK.

by excluding favorites entirely, you immediately eliminate half the teams from consideration. not only does this help narrow down the teams you will consider but also has you focusing on the most profitable subset (underdogs).
further, teasing favorites will absolutely kill you mentally. they are far more often in a battle to cover and find the most ridiculous ways to lose, often by the narrowest of margins, even against the adjusted number. teased dogs (especially given the extra points), are winning from the start, and are never really in trouble until they are somehow down 20. in many games the dog is NEVER trailing the adjusted number and the outcome is never in doubt. when it comes to following the games in real time, i prefer the peace of mind that comes with having lots of points and winning your bets for a high percentage of game time when compared to the anxiety that comes with trailing from the start and hoping the favorite can both perform and then not find some way to screw things up.

factors inherent in the game that help the dog in covering/backdoor covering additional points include:

the 3 point shot enabling teams trailing to catch up.
teams with large leads subbing, running clock, not looking to score.
point shaving/fixed games once a team has established a large lead.

the favored team shares none of these benefits.

**tto827** · 02-05-13, 03:37 AM

That's quite a post infinite wisdom. Learned a fair amount, thanks.