math question regarding hockey lines

[gohabsgo]

How would calculate a line (based on Pinny lines) for a team to win in REG + OT (Shootout not included).

Lets take the columbus-Phoenix game on wednesday. Columbus is +134 and Phoenix -145.

Knowing that 12-13% of the games are going in shootouts what would be the lines for each team to win in REG + OT?

I'm doing this because this is how lines are working here in canada with state sports betting. And i'm feeling some of their lines are way off sometimes.

Thanks!

[gohabsgo]

Oh and i would use this to calculate the percentage of winning for each team.

http://0vigcalc.150m.com/calc.htm

[gohabsgo]

I'll go at it:

Line for columbus to win in REG + OT should be:

0.419 (prob of columbus to win the game) X 0.88 (chances that the game will finish in REG+OT) = 0.3682

1/0.3682 = 2.7159 -1 = 1.7159 X100 = 171,59

Line should be +171.59

makes sense or not?

[LT Profits]

I'll go at it:

Line for columbus to win in REG + OT should be:

0.419 (prob of columbus to win the game) X 0.88 (chances that the game will finish in REG+OT) = 0.3682

1/0.3682 = 2.7159 -1 = 1.7159 X100 = 171,59

Line should be +171.59

makes sense or not?

I don't think that's right because Columbus would win some of the shootouts. If you want to assume that shootouts are truly a 50% proposition, multiply by .94 instead of .88? That is probably a dangerous assumption though.

[gohabsgo]

I don't think that's right because Columbus would win some of the shootouts. If you want to assume that shootouts are truly a 50% proposition, multiply by .94 instead of .88? That is probably a dangerous assumption though.

thanks for your input

Who's winning the shootout is not important here. If the game goes in shootout i lose my bet regardless who wins the shootout.
I want to calculate the line for columbus to win in REG + OT (shootout not included)

[LT Profits]

thanks for your input

Who's winning the shootout is not important here. If the game goes in shootout i lose my bet regardless who wins the shootout.
I want to calculate the line for columbus to win in REG + OT (shootout not included)

Right but the possibility of a shootout win is incorporated in Pinny line. If you multiply by .88, that's like saying Pinny line has 0% of Columbus shootout win. I think.

[gohabsgo]

Right but the possibility of a shootout win is incorporated in Pinny line. If you multiply by .88, that's like saying Pinny line has 0% of Columbus shootout win. I think.

Your right, i should use pinny lines to win in regulation ( the problem is that they do not include the 5 min OT)
Reg time lines for this game are +140, -152

.40856 (odds of columbus winning in regulation are lower then the one of winning the game) X 0.88 = 0.3595

1/0.3595 = 2,7816

+178 versus +171 with the other method

[gohabsgo]

This does not make sense.
PM sent to ganchrow!

[LT Profits]

Your right, i should use pinny lines to win in regulation ( the problem is that they do not include the 5 min OT)
Reg time lines for this game are +140, -152

.40856 (odds of columbus winning in regulation are lower then the one of winning the game) X 0.88 = 0.3595

1/0.3595 = 2,7816

+178 versus +171 with the other method

I think you were closer the first time with full game lines. Another possibility is applying the fully game probability to the 12%. So in this case, .419 * 12 = 5.03, so multiply by .9303?