Question for the sharps. Halftime lines.

Peep · 12-02-08, 01:04 AM

I liked Miami -2, but didn't pull the trigger.

Most of the halftime players who posted to it at OGD played GS +2.5.

So go figure.

The tie is obviously a factor here too, as it can't go "Mia -4), and there are a decided lack of one point finishes in the NBA (due to late fouling).

tomcowley · 12-02-08, 01:24 AM

Obviously the full-game line factors into the 2h line, but what would you say if GSW were up 20 at half and the 2h line was MIA -8 (number pulled out of my ass)? I'm beating the closing line by 14, time to back up the truck? That logic doesn't hold. The results of the 1h, especially if they're significantly different from the 1h line (6pts in this case), significantly affect the full-game "line".

OTOH, I have seen games that were virtually dead on the 1h line/total, where I couldn't discern anything unusual, and the 2h line/total came out and projected to something over 5% win different from the full-game line. I'd be looking to bet in those situations.

Dark Horse · 12-02-08, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by Kingctb27

Been starting to play more and more halftime lines here lately when I see something off the closing # drastically.

For example, in the heat/gsw game tonight the closing line was -2, favoring Miami.

At the end of the first half the score was Heat 60 - Warriors 64.

The half time line was only -2 Miami, giving a difference of 4 on the initial line.

So, assuming no players were hurt and everything is going as planned, how should one attack half time lines? Is the -2 2h the "beating the closing #" of -2 Miami overall and should we have an advantage on that # over the initial line?

Has anyone done studies on this type of thing and how it works?

You'd need to keep team pages, with one line per game, that allow you to scan for trends. Each team has its own characteristics. I would suggest to start with one team, because it's easy to lose focus if you try to do too many. The trends are ones that jump out. They will change as the season progresses, and are different per team.

Example (won't show up with spaces):

PHX 2008-2009

Date Opp H/A Line 1Q HT 3Q FT ATS 1H 2H
10/29 SA A PK 19-16 49-46 25-27 103-98 W +3 +2
10/30 NO H-3 23-30 44-56 25-25 95-108 L -12 -1
11/1 POR H-9 29-23 49-50 31-22 <= 107-96 W -1 +12
11/4 NJN A-6.5 32-27 65-55 27-22 114-86 W +10 +18
11/5 IND A-2.5 27-38 59-66 31-18 113-103 W -7 +17
11/7 CHI A-3.5 17-20 34-48 25-31 83-100 L -14 -3
11/8 MIL A-5.5 29-19 52-42 24-25 104-96 W +10 -2
11/10 MEM H-11.5 19-19 44-44 38-26 <= 107-102 L 0 +5
11/12 HOU H-3.5 22-23 37-44 18-30 82-94 L -13 -5
11/14 SAC A-3 27-23 53-41 17-19 97-95 OT L no Nash +12 -12
11/16 DET H-2 31-23 61-46 20-21 104-86 W +15 +3
11/17 UTA A+2 32-23 54-57 23-26 97-109 L -3 -9
11/20 LAL H+4.5 24-26 44-50 23-30 92-105 L -6 -7
11/22 POR H-5.5 21-17 41-36 31-26 102-92 W +5 +5
11/25 OKL A-10 26-25 41-54 29-27 99-98 L -13 +14
11/26 MIN A-4 28-23 59-43 21-29 110-102 W +16 -8
11/28 MIA H-5.5 19-32 44-57 26-24 92-107 L no Nash -13 -2
11/30 NJN H-8.5 35-24 62-56 23-18 109-117 L +6 -14

Last updated: November 30, 2008

1Q trends
After SU loss 5-1 in 1Q (+11, +4, -2, +4, +10, +6) +5.5 pts (6 games)
After not winning previous 2H 6-3 in 1Q (+11. -13*, +4, -2, +8, +4, 0, +10, +6)
After two ATS losses 2-0 in 1Q (+4, +4) +4.0 (2 games)

1H trends
After winning previous 2H 2-6 in 1H (+16, -13, -3, -7, -14, -7, +10, -12) -4.6 pts (8 games)

Halftime trends
When down at halftime, PHX is 2-7ATS for the full game.
When up at halftime (and Nash is playing), PHX is 6-1 ATS for the full game (6-2 ATS for all games).

2H trends
If down or tied at halftime by ≤5 pts (manageable deficit) : -9, +5, +12 (2-1)
If down at halftime by DD (being outplayed), most recent first: -2, +14, -3, -1 (1-3)

3Q trends
Home games that are close at half (≤5 pts): 3-0 ATS in 3Q. (+5, +12, +9) +8.7 pts (3 games)
Road games that are close at half (≤ 5 pts): 0-2 ATS in 3Q (-3, -2) -2.5 pts (2 games)

No Rest
PHX is 2-2 for 1Q and 1-3 for 1H in second of B2B games, when not off a SU loss.

PHX ATS HF RF HD RD Total November 30, 2008
<5 1-2 2-2 0-1 0-1 3-6
5 <10 2-2 2-0 4-2
===============================
10 <15 0-1 0-1
15 <20 0-1 0-1
20+

Kingctb27 · 12-02-08, 01:57 AM

Great help guys. I am going to do some research on this. Btw, the Miami 2nd half cashed but the initial -2 line didn't.

Peep · 12-02-08, 11:39 AM

Obviously the full-game line factors into the 2h line, but what would you say if GSW were up 20 at half and the 2h line was MIA -8 (number pulled out of my ass)? I'm beating the closing line by 14, time to back up the truck? That logic doesn't hold

I would say that crossing/score finishing close to the zero is my main concern, maybe I didn't word it right. The -4 hitting (in the Miami example) has a much greater chance of happening than the GS up 20 one does that you use Tom.

And bell curves with NBA side differentials tend to group around the 5-8 point differntials, not the 1-4 ones. Short form, IF I was to bet this, I would take the ML GS rather than the points, or give the points with Miami, as I do not think it is very likely the game would finish within the two points I would have to give or take.

tomcowley · 12-02-08, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

You'd need to keep team pages, with one line per game, that allow you to scan for trends. Each team has its own characteristics. I would suggest to start with one team, because it's easy to lose focus if you try to do too many. The trends are ones that jump out. They will change as the season progresses, and are different per team.

Last updated: November 30, 2008

1Q trends
After SU loss 5-1 in 1Q (+11, +4, -2, +4, +10, +6) +5.5 pts (6 games)
After not winning previous 2H 6-3 in 1Q (+11. -13*, +4, -2, +8, +4, 0, +10, +6)
After two ATS losses 2-0 in 1Q (+4, +4) +4.0 (2 games)

1H trends
After winning previous 2H 2-6 in 1H (+16, -13, -3, -7, -14, -7, +10, -12) -4.6 pts (8 games)

Halftime trends
When down at halftime, PHX is 2-7ATS for the full game.
When up at halftime (and Nash is playing), PHX is 6-1 ATS for the full game (6-2 ATS for all games).

2H trends
If down or tied at halftime by ≤5 pts (manageable deficit) : -9, +5, +12 (2-1)
If down at halftime by DD (being outplayed), most recent first: -2, +14, -3, -1 (1-3)

3Q trends
Home games that are close at half (≤5 pts): 3-0 ATS in 3Q. (+5, +12, +9) +8.7 pts (3 games)
Road games that are close at half (≤ 5 pts): 0-2 ATS in 3Q (-3, -2) -2.5 pts (2 games)

No Rest
PHX is 2-2 for 1Q and 1-3 for 1H in second of B2B games, when not off a SU loss.

PHX ATS HF RF HD RD Total November 30, 2008
<5 1-2 2-2 0-1 0-1 3-6
5 <10 2-2 2-0 4-2
===============================
10 <15 0-1 0-1
15 <20 0-1 0-1
20+

Seriously? You're going to place a bet based on any of those tiny samples?

The trends are ones that jump out. They will change as the season progresses, and are different per team.

I plugged this into google translator and selected "ignorant" to "math literate" and it spit back "These trends are random fluctuations that are not predictive."

Peep · 12-02-08, 01:22 PM

I have never been able to find "good 1st/2nd/3rd/4th quarter" teams either.

Would like to.

One year NJ was going under every first half, but the books adjusted for this quicker than I noticed it.

donjuan · 12-03-08, 02:33 PM

OTOH, I have seen games that were virtually dead on the 1h line/total, where I couldn't discern anything unusual, and the 2h line/total came out and projected to something over 5% win different from the full-game line. I'd be looking to bet in those situations.

I'd make sure there weren't any significant injuries or important players with foul trouble if that was the case.

Dark Horse · 12-03-08, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by Kingctb27

Great help guys. I am going to do some research on this. Btw, the Miami 2nd half cashed but the initial -2 line didn't.

Be here for March Madness. I like to play -and post- 2H between more or less equal teams, using 1H imbalance in shooting percentage, turnovers, and rebounds, and expecting those to, more or less, even out. In the NBA this approach is much harder, because teams don't play hard every night. Few seasons ago some of us cleaned up during March Madness doing exactly that.

Kingctb27 · 12-04-08, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Be here for March Madness. I like to play -and post- 2H between more or less equal teams, using 1H imbalance in shooting percentage, turnovers, and rebounds, and expecting those to, more or less, even out. In the NBA this approach is much harder, because teams don't play hard every night. Few seasons ago some of us cleaned up during March Madness doing exactly that.

Solid.

ZXCVBNM · 12-04-08, 01:53 PM

Impossible to predict NBA. They take it slow until the 4th quarter, and that's if it's still somewhat even. Much easier to predict college 2nd half lines, due to swings in momentum and all that.

Peep · 12-04-08, 02:36 PM

I like to play -and post- 2H between more or less equal teams, using 1H imbalance in shooting percentage, turnovers, and rebounds, and expecting those to, more or less, even out.

Interesting.

If anything, I would go the other way, assuming that one team is on a roll and will stay that way.

But from the stats I have done, it seems to me that "being on a roll" one half is more or less an independent event from what happens the other half. Same as a red coming up one roll isn't a predictive for a black (or a red) coming up next.

Dark Horse · 12-04-08, 03:06 PM

Unless a team is getting easy layups, one team is not going to continue to shoot 57% while the other is shooting 32%. Typically, that gap will close (between compatible teams). Just an example. It's a quick weighing of the half time stats. Not just shooting.

curious · 12-04-08, 03:14 PM

A pattern I have found for college basketball which seems to work well is:

IF 2nd H line >0 AND 2nd H line >= full game line

THEN

bet on the 2nd H line