I'm kind of confused when it comes to making a system like everybody here talks about. I was just wondering what all I needed to have to start making my own.
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There is no formula honestly, you just have to poke around andsee what worksComment -
I'm talking about one where you use old scores and all thatComment -
It's still not a set system.. Usually i take the approach of using the last 5 games for both teams to measure where they are.. Then i look at the last time the 2 teams played eachother and how that turned out. Figure in injuries, being on the road.. etc.Comment -
What do you mean by system?
Do you want to design your own models? Or do you want to bet on teams that lost by 45+ pts on a thursday while playing under a full moon?Comment -
I guess I meant model actuallyComment -
How much do you know about statistics and probability?Comment -
A decent amount, I'm not a stat genius or anything thoughComment -
So what do you want to know?Comment -
I'm just wondering what all I need to get started. I mean do I just use old results and box scores or?Comment -
if you have to ask you probably shouldn't be doing it...go pay for a serviceComment -
lol pay for a service?Comment -
nah wouldnt pay for service if you have tools and abilities to make model on your own. need to create a database and know decent amount of math and statisticsComment -
yeah I have no clue exactly how to go about doing it though. If I got started I'd be alright I thinkComment -
@TPowell
Are you asking about the inputs. In other words, the historical data that needs to be computed in order to analyze the probability of an outcome? I've taken a ton of statistics and probability courses at FSU and I hated every bit of it, but was pretty good at it. However, if you know your way around a statistical application such as Excel, for example, and know your math you could test the waters on your screen before you place your wagers. Some of the data you might want to get your hands on can be found on this forum, covers.com, as well as several others.Comment -
1) Either find a sport or an approach that is out of the norm. This increases your chance of identifying an edge. Conversely, if you do what everybody else does, it is much more difficult to find an edge. This is the single most important point.
2) Learn to calculate your own line. This gives you the ability to work with overlays and underlays. There are many ways to do is, but this topic is typically not discussed at this forum. As with 1), the research is yours to do.
3) Instead of, or in addition to, mapping lines, map overlays. Use standard grids, such as HF-RF-HD-RD against different spread sets.
4) Keep precise records. Don't make standard mistakes in developing and maintaining systems. Read this think tank to find out what they are.
This is one of my favorite cappers. He used to post here, but has gone next door. Example of a sophisticated system:
In other words (note to self), programming skills help...Comment -
I like to do what Durito fondly refers to as the "Thursday night/full moon/45 points +" system.
To do this you need lots of data (which you can get from covers.com). I just put that into excel/access and look for reoccuring patterns. For example, you used to be able to beat NBA by looking for back to back road games next day back, bet against 2nd game.
The line has since adjusted.
You do have to be VERY careful of backfitting if you take this approach, and keep some pristine data available to test forward on.Comment -
King Yao gives a decent synopsis of the process for analyzing sports data in his book WEIGHING THE ODDS IN SPORTS BETTING.Comment
