Anytime somebody decides to announce they have had great success betting over x amount of years it is a pretty good sign that they aren't very good at it
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Not even worth it. MLB is impossible. There is about a 100 or variables to account for. The difference between team #1 and team #30 in the league is much smaller than most people think. Each game hinges on about 1 or 2 key plays and unless you can predict when and which team or players is going to make those plays, it is pointless to try to figure out.
Most of the defensive metrics are unreliable and still need more work. Defensive is very important in baseball though and can't be ignored. Personally, I would suggest to identify those pitchers with high strikeouts (i.e. k/9) and bet those games....this way, the defense is less a factor and its impact can be reduced in handicapping. Once the ball is hit, it is random. It can basically go anywhere and at that point you just hold your breath and hope the defender makes a play.Comment -
IMHO, baseball is the greatest sport on planet Earth. So, I'm loving this discussion. I'm not a statistics guy, therefore, my analysis is street smart and not book smart. You guys may have Math degrees but I graduated the School of Hard Knocks.
How important is defense in baseball? A lot more than you might think. Baseball is the one major sport where there is no time clock. Time is measured in outs and you only get 27. Outs are extremely valuable. Assuming the average team scores 4.5 runs in a game, that's one run every six outs. A great defensive team can save you one run a ballgame. Obviously this is more important in the American League with the designated hitter.
But there are other intangibles that can make defense so important. For instance, a starting pitcher with confidence in his defense will not be afraid to throw strikes. When a pitcher doesn't have to worry about nibbling at the corners of the plate, trying to be too precise, he will give up less walks. I think everybody will agree that team on-base-percentage is more important to a baseball offense than team batting average. A starting pitcher throwing with confidence is a dangerous weapon for a baseball team.
Keep up the great conversation.
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Interesting thread here. The only unclear thing left is - did Arthur actually vote for Obama? Yes or no?Comment -
You may have noticed Arthur has disappeared. That January post was his last. Real staying power. And Yes - I'm sure he did.Comment
