Breakeven % on parlays (video)

[Justin7]

http://www.sbr.tv/WatchVideo.aspx?postId=357

[compaqDikk]

thanks justin.tv; we were long overdue for one of these vids

[Justin7]

I was sick for a couple weeks... but I have more coming.

[SlickFazzer]

good stuff.

[apk2k6]

Thanks for that vid Justin

[MickChunky]

My brain hurts, but I did learn something. Thanks Justin

[l7ustin]

thanks justin. helpful video.

[ijustwant2bpaid]

Thanks justin, well versed

[moonbeam]

I appreciate this lesson in maths Justin7.

(maybe I don´t understand everything)

Parlays normally just maximize the winnings of the books.

What you told us - and I think that´s good to hear - because a lot of people think it´s cool to play 10 team parlays (because of the possible winnings) which is totally stupid - is Basic Knowledge.

I don´t know any professional (or semi-professional) players who play parlays.

But last not least your lession was a good one.

[durito]

I don´t know any professional (or semi-professional) players who play parlays.

I don't know any that don't play parlays.

Anyone using kelly as their staking strategy should be playing parlays.

There are other uses too, such as avoiding betting limits.

[moonbeam]

I don't know any that don't play parlays.

Anyone using kelly as their staking strategy should be playing parlays.

There are other uses too, such as avoiding betting limits.

That can´t be your truth.
Ok, avoiding betting limits is an argument.
So, I´m pleased to hear how you can make money with even2 team parlays.

Maybe american players must be very better than europeans

I have no need to play parlays

[Ganchrow]

That can´t be your truth.
Ok, avoiding betting limits is an argument.
So, I´m pleased to hear how you can make money with even2 team parlays.

In addition to reading up on the Kelly Criterion also see:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2071-parlays.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2110-correlated-parlays.html

Viel Spaß und Glück.

[moonbeam]

In addition to reading up on the Kelly Criterion also see:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2071-parlays.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2110-correlated-parlays.html

Viel Spaß und Glück.

Thanks for your advice and your nice german

Well I guess it´s very much harder for americans making money than for europeans.
Theoretically, I guess I have an idea of what you mean.
But as an european player, you can establish skills to make 100 Euro within 2 hours ( while having breakfast) without this complicated things.
But if there are some hard times coming for me, I apreciate your lesson, so thanks for it in advance

[Sforz]

"I had a nasty case of the creeping crub" -Justin7

nice vid

[Justin7]

What you told us - and I think that´s good to hear - because a lot of people think it´s cool to play 10 team parlays (because of the possible winnings) which is totally stupid - is Basic Knowledge.

I don´t know any professional (or semi-professional) players who play parlays.

I play parlays. I even play 10-team parlays... but only for clearly defined reasons.

[durito]

Justin-

You got me curious on that one. 10 teamers? (i think kelly might suggest a 10 teamer at certain odds but I'm guessing you are doing it for some other reason)

[moonbeam]

deleted

[Ganchrow]

Justin-

You got me curious on that one. 10 teamers? (i think kelly might suggest a 10 teamer at certain odds but I'm guessing you are doing it for some other reason)

I assume he's referring to consolation-type parlays that pay out at multiple (reduced) levels even if a few teams lose (or in some cases if all teams lose).

Still, unless the odds given are sufficiently generous, the lines offered are sufficiently stale (or at least a few are sufficiently stale and enough others are sufficiently close to fair value), or the payout levels run deep, 10-team such bets generally tend to rank *fairly* low utility-wise.

[Justin7]

There are plenty of parlays that have 100% EV (e.g. a $50 ticket is worth $100 as soon as I place the bet).

On a 10-teamer, that means you have about a 1/500 chance of winning.

If you have 40 "quasi-independent" plays that will generate these returns, you have some pretty complex risk management. The underwater period is maddening, especially if you have a bad streak.

Btw, I've played 3-team parlays offshore at +750 with stale lines. I've played other parlays that have teams currently at "Pk" at +3.5. I've played correlated parlays in these things. There are all kinds of ways to skin a cat, but you have to look for it.

[MakeMoney]

Nice video Justin, just wondering which books offer those 2 team even money teasers?

[moonbeam]

There are plenty of parlays that have 100% EV (e.g. a $50 ticket is worth $100 as soon as I place the bet).

On a 10-teamer, that means you have about a 1/500 chance of winning.

If you have 40 "quasi-independent" plays that will generate these returns, you have some pretty complex risk management. The underwater period is maddening, especially if you have a bad streak.

Btw, I've played 3-team parlays offshore at +750 with stale lines. I've played other parlays that have teams currently at "Pk" at +3.5. I've played correlated parlays in these things. There are all kinds of ways to skin a cat, but you have to look for it.

Why do you share this knowledge and your "high end skills" with all other people here Justin7, when you can make more than 50.000 a year with your skills.

I don´t understand this.

Are you the "mother Theresa" for the punters?

Or do you want to sell something in the future?

[durito]

Why do you share this knowledge and your "high end skills" with all other people here Justin7, when you can make more than 50.000 a year with your skills.

I don´t understand this.

Are you the "mother Theresa" for the punters?

Or do you want to sell something in the future?

The stuff Justin shares is very basic. He'll point you in the right direction, but he's hardly giving away the farm.

That said, if I owned a forum like SBR where my profits were based on gamblers opening sportsbook accounts (and presumably losing) I certainly wouldn't be hiring someone like Justin or Ganch to be posting there.

[Justin7]

Why do you share this knowledge and your "high end skills" with all other people here Justin7, when you can make more than 50.000 a year with your skills.

I don´t understand this.

Are you the "mother Theresa" for the punters?

Or do you want to sell something in the future?

I enjoy teaching. In the past, I've taught mathematics, fencing and law.

In this case, I get back a lot more than I give out. I really don't give out anything that isn't there, I just try to make it easy to understand... But when people recognize me as something of an authority, they come to me with ideas. I've made more money from other peoples' ideas than anything I've done myself.

[moonbeam]

ok. That´s brilliant

[marcoforte]

I enjoy teaching. In the past, I've taught mathematics, fencing and law.

In this case, I get back a lot more than I give out. I really don't give out anything that isn't there, I just try to make it easy to understand... But when people recognize me as something of an authority, they come to me with ideas. I've made more money from other peoples' ideas than anything I've done myself.

Exactly why I teach and publish for free in my field. Psychic rewards lead to financial ones when you least expect it.

[rookie]

There are plenty of parlays that have 100% EV (e.g. a $50 ticket is worth $100 as soon as I place the bet).

On a 10-teamer, that means you have about a 1/500 chance of winning.

If you have 40 "quasi-independent" plays that will generate these returns, you have some pretty complex risk management. The underwater period is maddening, especially if you have a bad streak.

Btw, I've played 3-team parlays offshore at +750 with stale lines. I've played other parlays that have teams currently at "Pk" at +3.5. I've played correlated parlays in these things. There are all kinds of ways to skin a cat, but you have to look for it.

Now, as a "strictly singles only" bettor this is what troubles me: Multiple bad lines but min 3-team parlay. One option is to include a late third game (maybe a day later such as MNF) and hedge if first two win.

It gets all muddled up when I get 4-5 options (some more valuable than others). After making a bunch of treble bets, I start laying off some of the teams by selling points (say Team A (NBA) (pk) is +3 in parlay. Bet A's opp -3 @ +110 or so ) - this is a double-edged sword though I haven't been hurt badly as yet.

Restricting the number of teams in play is a good way to manage the risk but 4-5 (sometimes even 6) value bets tend to suck me in. Can you give a tip (besides Don't Be Greedy ) to follow in such situations ?

[Ganchrow]

You don't want to be artificially limiting the number of plays you place on value propositions but rather determing stake sizes as a part of a broad and sensible system of risk management.

The short (but technical) answer here would be to build yourself a Kelly optimizer to determine optimal staking on the initial parlay bet, the early hedges (before any games have been decided), and the later hedges (after one or more games have been decided).

I'm not going to claim that this is an easy task -- but I managed to do it and found it invaluable in milking opportunities such as these.