I need some help in understanding this a bit. Maybe I am over thinking it. Let's say that for a random ncaab game the second half line total is 73.5. The line moves to 72.5 before the start of the second half. Now I understand the idea behind line movement is to get somewhat more equal action on both sides. However, to me at least, it would seem in the example I have given it clearly shows the heavy action is coming on the under and they moved the line down 1 point to clearly indicate that to me and everyone else. Now if everyone knows people are pounding the under so more people pound the under. How does this help create equal action by "showing their cards" so to speak as to how everyone is betting the line. It would seem the line movement would create more lopsided action?
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People who see value in the over will then bet the over at the lower line. People who may want to bet the over at 72.5, but not 73.5, may 'balance the action'. Not everyone simply follows steam. If we did once a line has started moving it would never stop.
If you believe that bookmakers do seek to simply balance action, the price reaches a point which roughly equalizes the marginal utilitiy of the over to the underComment -
I would think there are more rec bettors that follow the steam than know the value difference in 72.5 and 73.5. I don't think average bettors can evaluate whether that one point is make or break for them going on the over or under (whatever their decision was before the line movement).Comment -
Since the public likes Overs in all sports.
I would pay attention to lines that shows heavy public overs that go from 73.5 to 72.5, not from 72.5 to 73.5Comment
