If a local has football lines that are occasionally 1-3 points higher than the lines of pinnacle/matchbook, what is the best method to regularly capitalize on this?
Thanks for any help and suggestions!
Thanks for any help and suggestions!
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Take Pinny NFL lines to be the sharpest lines available, and bet accordingly.
Ex. If Pinny has
CLE@BUF
Over 40 +100
Under 40 -110
And your Book has O/U 43, then you bet the under (given your book has standard -110 juice on both sides)Comment -
Just to clarify, the difference in lines is for the game, not the total.
For example tonight he has Cle +6 -110, and it is +5 +102 at Pinnacle.Comment -
that's still a -ev play.
play around with the calculatorComment -
I am not sure that I am fully understanding this...or I could just be inputting the data incorrectly.
Would it be best to play a greater # of units based on the EV?
Here are the lines he has vs pinnacle for NCAA this week that are over 1 point:
Ole Miss +6 -110 vs Ole Miss +3.5-105
AFA +20 -110 vs. AFA +18 -12
Syracue +21 -110 vs. Cuse +20 -106
Idaho +24 -110 vs Idaho +23 -103Comment -
no blind edge in any of those other than Ole MissComment -
The idea is that Half Point Calculator provides you an estimate if the EV on each bet but is says nothing about the proper risk allocation of funds.
To determine how much to bet on each of a set of events with varying edges and odds you might look to the Kelly Calculator or if you were feeling more adventurous, to the generic kelly spreadsheet I just posted here.Comment
