given that the vig is so ridiculously high in NCAAF quarters is it even possible to bet these even when you have a really nice model that backtests well?
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Outside of getting lucky, there are 2 reasons for that to be possible:
1. Those who set and monitor these lines must be ridiculously incompetent.
2. You must have come with with truly unique, remarkable, ground breaking model/simulator/algorithm based on logic/theory that nobody else in the world could envision.
I can't think of anything else. Can you?Comment -
#1 is correct, whether #2 is or not!Comment -
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Derivatives are very beatable. Second-half wagering is by far the most vulnerable to attack if you know how to analyze these.
In most derivatives, the book only needs to consider a game spread and a game total. With h2 wagering, they have to consider that, as well as another two dimensional scoring grid. Even if they simplify it to margin of victory at halftime (and this simplification will create the wrong answer in many situations), you've created a 3-variable function instead of a 2-variable function. In many instances, that third variable has non-linear results. The approaches that work on h1 and q1 derivatives simply don't have enough data points for a 3 or 4 dimensional approaches. Those that understand the game, and can cheat by taking shortcuts can destroy h2 markets.Comment -
justin thanks for the response. "The approaches that work on h1 and q1 derivatives simply don't have enough data points for a 3 or 4 dimensional approaches." What do you mean by this? For example if you are modeling 1st half spread simply as a function of the FG spread, and then you want to model the 2nd half and want to add in margin of victory at half time, you simply make a function of margin of victory and fg spread.
Here is another question I am hoping you can point me in the right direction on. I am very confused why pinnacle doesn't seem to have confidence in it's 1st quarter lines where it offers betting limits of $1,000 and $500 for spreads and totals, yet for 2nd half lines it has huge limits. 2nd half is much more complicated to model, so if pinnacle doesn't feel it's setting it's 1st quarter lines well why does it have huge 2nd half limits? why am i so confusedComment
