Originally Posted by
u21c3f6
I am going to assume that you have no way of knowing when a wager may fall into the 50 or 70 % range but that your overall win % is 60%.
All Kelly cares about for optimum bankroll growth is that at some point in the future you will achieve the edge and win rate that you plug into the formula. In this case full-Kelly would be approx 13% of bankroll. As long as you achieve a 60% win rate at some point at 2.3/2.7, you will optimize your bankroll by wagering 13.04% (to be more exact) of your bankroll per wager.
Now, because of variance and/or the violent swings in bankroll that full-Kelly may produce, you may want to consider a fractional Kelly. IMO there is no one right answer to this. I personally use half-Kelly and it serves me well. My bankroll has less violent swings and I don't have to be overly concerned that my edge and/or win % is exact. The biggest problem IMO in using Kelly is over-estimating your inputs as overbetting using Kelly can and will decimate your bankroll.
Joe.