Playing line movement???

[metaldome]

I usually make my own picks and do okay but I spend a lot of time looking up info and making my decisions and cant really do it on days I am working late. Right now I am not gambling for a while b/c I need to save some money. So I want to keep track of different things like playing line movements to see how they work and maybe I will incorporate them when I start again.

Lets assume you are using reverse line movement. This is where if one team has a disproportionate amount of bets but the line stays the same or goes in the opposite direction you bet against them. You would do this because you assume the smaller percentage of bettors on the other team are betting more money and are probably better cappers (sharps). Here are my questions...

1)Considering different sites have different lines, where do you get your line movement from?

2)Where do you get accurate info on percentage of bets on either side?

3)What percentage of bets on one side is enough to consider a bet?

4)How is it different for basketball and football? Can you use this in baseball?

5)What kind of win percentage have people that use this experienced?

6)Does anyone use the lines differently? What if you just look at the percentage of money (instead of bets) on either team and when more money is on one team but the line hasnt moved or goes in the opposite direction you go with the other team. You would assume if the line hasnt moved with more money on one side the sportsbook may know something and actually wants to keep it disproportionate. Also, I remember someone on here saying that the first lines to come out were pretty much on target so if the line moves a certain amount you would get value in taking the side that you were now getting more points on. Thanks.

[metaldome]

Wanted to bump this since I made changes from when I first posted it. Again, thanks to anyone that can help.

[LT Profits]

1)Considering different sites have different lines, where do you get your line movement from?

2)Where do you get accurate info on percentage of bets on either side?

3)What percentage of bets on one side is enough to consider a bet?

4)How is it different for basketball and football? Can you use this in baseball?

5)What kind of win percentage have people that use this experienced?

6)Does anyone use the lines differently? What if you just look at the percentage of money (instead of bets) on either team and when more money is on one team but the line hasnt moved or goes in the opposite direction you go with the other team. You would assume if the line hasnt moved with more money on one side the sportsbook may know something and actually wants to keep it disproportionate. Also, I remember someone on here saying that the first lines to come out were pretty much on target so if the line moves a certain amount you would get value in taking the side that you were now getting more points on. Thanks.

1) Choose either Pinnacle or CRIS and be consistent

2) Sports Insights

3) 60

4) It isn't. Yes.

5) Units more important than Win %.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/NFL/9202/reverse-line-movements-can-lead-big-profits.aspx

6) Percent of Money on each play is not available that I know of. Another use is that if you first handicap a team to win, then a line move could add/reduce confidence.

[metaldome]

Thanks for the reply LT. From reading some of your other post I have gathered the following...

(Bettracker/Sports Insights are best for percentages)
(Pinnacle/Betcris are best for line changes)

Basketball & Football -

When 60% or more people are on one side (not totals) but the line has move in the other direction by at least a point, bet the other team.

Hockey & Baseball -

When 60% or more people are on one money line (and totals in hockey) but the line has gone in the opposite direction by at least 10 cents, bet the other team.

(Also it should be obvious from the juice that a move is not significant, i.e., +7 -104 to +9 -128, would not count as a play.)

Now my questions...

1) Do you ever use 1/2 point moves or only if it moves a point or more? Has you ever tracked 1/2 point moves?

2) When do you place the bet? After line has moved at least a point or wait until a certain amount of time before game starts to see where it ends up (2 hours beforehand)?

3) In hockey totals, are you playing a change in the total or juice? Have you tracked the totals for other sports?

4) Do you still bet really high lines where a point or two doesnt mean as much (lets say -25 to -24 in NCAAF)?

5) Do you ever make plays when the action is heavy on one side but the line has not moved? Have you ever tracked these plays?

5) Is it worth using the free section on sports insights (market average) for a while or do you need to see individual sportsbooks line moves and percentage to make it work?

6) What site can I get an accurate/up to date record of the line moves so I dont have to write them down to follow them?

Thanks a lot!!!

[metaldome]

As of tonight, this is whats up at bettracker, just curious what you would do with the following...

71% on Tennessee -3, line has not changed, but the juice gone in the wrong direction, from -104 to +112, play on Chicago Bears +3?

64% on New England, line has gone in the wrong direction, from -4 to -3.5, but juice has also gone from -108 to +100, probably no play? Why do they do this?

67% on Miami -9.5, line has not changed, but juice has gone in the wrong direction, from -101 to +116, play on Seattle +9.5?

63% on Green Bay, line has gone from +1 to +2.5, but juice has also gone from +116 to +104, play on Minnesota -2.5?

63% on Kansas City +14 -110, line has gone to +15 -110, San Diego chargers -15 is the play?

66% on New York Giants +3, line hasnt changed, juice has gone in the wrong direction from -114 to -106, possible play on Philadelphia -3?

75% on Arizona, yet line has gone from -10 -109 to -9.5 -106, possible play on San Francisco +9.5?

(If the line doesnt change, but the juice changes, how much should the juice change before you consider it a play?)

[LT Profits]

1) Do you ever use 1/2 point moves or only if it moves a point or more? Has you ever tracked 1/2 point moves?

2) When do you place the bet? After line has moved at least a point or wait until a certain amount of time before game starts to see where it ends up (2 hours beforehand)?

3) In hockey totals, are you playing a change in the total or juice? Have you tracked the totals for other sports?

4) Do you still bet really high lines where a point or two doesnt mean as much (lets say -25 to -24 in NCAAF)?

5) Do you ever make plays when the action is heavy on one side but the line has not moved? Have you ever tracked these plays?

5) Is it worth using the free section on sports insights (market average) for a while or do you need to see individual sportsbooks line moves and percentage to make it work?

6) What site can I get an accurate/up to date record of the line moves so I dont have to write them down to follow them?

Thanks a lot!!!

1) Yes I have used 1/2 pomt moves, and I have even used NO Moves, playing the minority side with a 60% + majority. However, I use these in combinantion with conventional handicapping, and am reluctant to play them on their own merit unless I get an alert from Sports Insights.

As for tracking, to be honest, I never personally tracked any of the numbers in the article, I pulled them from Sports Insights archives. I did notice the angle working at a nice clip just from my betting experience, which is what prompted me to look the numbers up in the first place.

2) As soon as there is a one-point move after a reasonable number of bets on the game, with the goal being to ultimately beat the closing line.

3) Both. Actually juice is more common, since totals hardly move in hockey. See my note in #1 about tracking, or lack of on my own part.

4) Excellent question that I should have addressed sooner.

Yes, the records in the article are based on one-point moves regardless of spread. But in practice, yes to one-point big spread moved in pro sports, but in CFB and CBB, I am reluctant to pull trigger unless move is at least 1.5 points in the 10-19.5 range and at least 2 points if line is 20+.

5) Free section is fine for Sides only, just bear in mind there is a delay. But you miss out on premium features such as Steam and Smart Money Alerts and bet percentages by book.

6) Smart Money section of SI.

[newb411breaker19]

thanks for the info LT.. just curious, are those sports insights win percentages graded at the opening line, or the line one point (or so) worse.. in other words, would that win percentage be achieved betting after seeing the reverse line movement?

thanks a lot

[LT Profits]

Graded on line at time bet was made, i.e., as soon as there is a one-point move after a sufficient number of bets.

[newb411breaker19]

awesome, thanks for the quick reply LT

[pico]

the bet tracker i use tells you # of bets, but there are always the case where 100 people bet 10 dollars each on one side then 10 people bet 100 dollars each on the other side.

the way bet tracker calculate it is # of bets, so with the scenario above, you'll get 100:10 or 10:1 or 90% on one side and 10% on another...even though it is balance action.

LT, is it safe to conclude that if you see 60%+ on one side and the line did not move, you can assume big money bets are on the 40%- side? since books should have balanced action and the bet 60%+ is just number of bets...not really the size of each bets.

[metaldome]

I really want to try tracking this and think it could be good but I have two major problems I would appreciate you help on...

1) All of the sites that show percentages of bets on either side have completely different data. One says 64%, a play, the other says 56%, a non play. (for example sports insights & sportsbookspy). Besides this, all the sportsbooks have different lines.

2) Then, even if I just picked one site to follow, it would be great if every line was -110 but it usually isnt, and I am not sure exactly how to follow the lines/juice, for example it is easy if it is (random made up example)...

65% on Giants +4 -107 @ Philadelphia, moves to Giants +5 -108, obviously then the play should be Philadelphia -5.

...but what if it is...

65% on Giants +4 -107 @ Philadelphia, moves to Giants +5 -119, what do you do then? How do you attribute the lines to the juice in these situations since it seems to happen almost everytime?

...or what if it is...

65% on Giants +4 -107 @ Philadelphia, line stays at +4 but the juice moves from -107 to +112, what do you do then?

If I were to only play games with 60% or more on one side but where the line moved at least a point in the wrong direction without the juice also changing a lot, I think there might be two plays a week between all sports and that seems sort of pointless to even follow, please help!!! Thanks.

[LT Profits]

I really want to try tracking this and think it could be good but I have two major problems I would appreciate you help on...

1) All of the sites that show percentages of bets on either side have completely different data. One says 64%, a play, the other says 56%, a non play. (for example sports insights & sportsbookspy). Besides this, all the sportsbooks have different lines.

2) Then, even if I just picked one site to follow, it would be great if every line was -110 but it usually isnt, and I am not sure exactly how to follow the lines/juice, for example it is easy if it is (random made up example)...

65% on Giants +4 -107 @ Philadelphia, moves to Giants +5 -108, obviously then the play should be Philadelphia -5.

...but what if it is...

65% on Giants +4 -107 @ Philadelphia, moves to Giants +5 -119, what do you do then? How do you attribute the lines to the juice in these situations since it seems to happen almost everytime?

...or what if it is...

65% on Giants +4 -107 @ Philadelphia, line stays at +4 but the juice moves from -107 to +112, what do you do then?

If I were to only play games with 60% or more on one side but where the line moved at least a point in the wrong direction without the juice also changing a lot, I think there might be two plays a week between all sports and that seems sort of pointless to even follow, please help!!! Thanks.

Yes, Sports Insights just tracks spread moves irregardless of juice, so they would have picked up Eagles in your first scenario. That doesn't mean you have to do same thing in real life though. To help give you line equivalents, use Ganchrow's half-point calculator.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

As for your second scenario, I basically ignore changes in juice if spread stays the same.

[metaldome]

What about hockey lines? What is the most juice you would play? For example if New York -175 was a play, would you lay that?

[LT Profits]

I would not, I don't lay odds that high unless it is an off-market line. That said, it is extrmely rare that you will see a favorite that big qualify as an RLM.

[pizza man]

line movements alone dont mean anything, i use a paid line service and they track all the line movements and grade the plays, i can fax anyone a copy of the results , drop me a private message.

[LT Profits]

line movements alone dont mean anything, i use a paid line service and they track all the line movements and grade the plays, i can fax anyone a copy of the results , drop me a private message.

Not talking about ALL line movements, only reverse line moves.

[pizza man]

only the reverse line movements, ah i called them the come back, they went out of style too. dont mean anything

[LT Profits]

I think we are talking about two different things. A revererse line move is when at least 60% of the bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction, i.e., 65% of bets are on Team A at -6, yet the line moves to -5. That would be considered a sharp move on the dog.