My models picks for the weekend... please critique if you see some game that doesn't

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Page of 1
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
Previous template Next
  • usma1992
    SBR MVP
    • 08-02-11
    • 1405
    #1
    My models picks for the weekend... please critique if you see some game that doesn't
    make sense... Please comment. I"M NOT SOLICITING OR TAKING WAGERS etc... I am just trying to create statistical models to determine the outcome of games and feedback on what the model creates is appreciated. N=Neutral, O=Over, and U=Under

    G Visitor Home Sprd O/U Final
    07:30 PM ArkansasState 0 FloridaInt 0 0 58.0 N
    8:00 PM EastCarolina 0 UCF 0 -14 47.0 O
    9:00 PM USC 0 Utah 0 14 47.5 O
    7:00 PM Pitt 0 Syracuse 0 2 57.0 N
    10:15 PM UtahState 0 BYU 0 -7 45.0 N
    11:30 AM Navy 0 AirForce 0 -10 55.0 U
    12:00 PM MichiganState 0 Indiana 0 15.5 48.0 O
    12:00 PM BostonCollege 0 Army 0 10 57.5 N
    12:00 PM MiamiOhio 0 Cincinnati 0 -20.5 58.0 N
    12:00 PM GeorgiaTech 0 Clemson 0 -10 73.5 U
    12:00 PM USF 0 Temple 0 5 47.5 O
    12:00 PM Northwestern 0 PennState 0 -3 48.0 O
    12:00 PM Connecticut 0 Rutgers 0 -8.5 40.5 U
    12:00 PM Kansas 0 KansasState 0 -24 53.5 N
    12:00 PM Arkansas 0 Auburn 0 -10 54.5 U
    12:00 PM BoiseState 0 SouthernMiss 0 11 47.5 O
    12:00 PM Buffalo 0 Ohio 0 -14 56.5 N
    12:20 PM MississippiState 0 Kentucky 0 10.5 46.5 O
    12:30 PM VirginiaTech 0 UNC 0 -4 49.5 O
    1:00 PM KentState 0 EasternMichigan 0 3 51.0 N
    2:00 PM BowlingGreen 0 Akron 0 4.5 63.5 N
    2:00 PM Massachusetts 0 WesternMichigan 0 -16.5 53.0 U
    3:00 PM NorthernIllinois 0 BallState 0 2.5 67.5 N
    3:00 PM Virginia 0 Duke 0 -2 57.0 N
    3:00 PM Arizona 0 Stanford 0 -8.5 54.0 O
    3:00 PM CMU 0 Toledo 0 -10 66.5 N
    3:30 PM IowaState 0 TCU 0 -11.5 45.5 O
    3:30 PM Illinois 0 Wisconsin 0 -14.5 47.5 U
    3:30 PM Oklahoma 0 TexasTech 0 4.5 58.5 U
    3:30 PM WakeForest 0 Maryland 0 -5.5 50.5 U
    3:30 PM Tulsa 0 Marshall 0 3 67.5 O
    3:30 PM LSU 0 Florida 0 2.5 44.5 U
    4:00 PM Michigan 0 Purdue 0 3 57.5 N
    5:00 PM NewMexicoState 0 Idaho 0 -11 57.5 U
    5:00 PM Tulane 0 LaLafayette 0 -24 56.5 N
    6:00 PM WashingtonState 0 OregonState 0 -15.5 57.5 N
    6:00 PM TexasState 0 NewMexico 0 -3.5 51.5 N
    7:00 PM Vanderbilt 0 Missouri 0 -6.5 45.5 O
    7:00 PM TexasAM 0 OleMiss 0 11 65.5 U
    7:00 PM Georgia 0 SouthCarolina 0 -2.5 56.5 U
    7:00 PM WestVirginia 0 Texas 0 -6.5 74.5 N
    7:00 PM Wyoming 0 Nevada 0 -16.5 67.5 U
    7:00 PM Rice 0 Memphis 0 6.5 63.0 N
    7:00 PM UNLV 0 LouisianaTech 0 -24.5 68.5 N
    7:00 PM FresnoState 0 ColoradoState 0 16 59.5 O
    7:00 PM LouisianaMonroe 0 MTSU 0 3 66.5 N
    7:30 PM Miami 0 NotreDame 0 -13 51.5 O
    8:00 PM FloridaState 0 NCState 0 14.5 55.5 U
    8:00 PM Nebraska 0 OhioState 0 -3.5 57.5 U
    8:00 PM Hawaii 0 SanDiegoState 0 -22.5 60.5 U
    8:00 PM SMU 0 UTEP 0 -2.5 49.0 N
    8:00 PM NorthTexas 0 Houston 0 -12 58.0 U
    10:00 PM UCLA 0 California 0 2.5 54.0 O
    10:30 PM Washington 0 Oregon 0 -24 65.5 U
    Tags: None
    • Maverick22
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 04-10-10
      • 807
      #2
      The first question anyone here in the think tank is going to ask is: "did you back test your model?"

      Then they are going to ask "Did you back test your model using the same data that created the model?"

      If you back tested your model, and didnt back test using training data... then I think you have your answer
        Comment
        • Blax0r
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-13-10
          • 688
          #3
          Originally posted by Maverick22
          The first question anyone here in the think tank is going to ask is: "did you back test your model?"

          Then they are going to ask "Did you back test your model using the same data that created the model?"

          If you back tested your model, and didnt back test using training data... then I think you have your answer
          The second question especially; make sure you're not using future data in any way. A good way to check this is to compare your backtest picks and your actual picks for the same week. If they don't line up perfectly, stop betting immediately and find the bug/re-evaluate your model.
            Comment
            • usma1992
              SBR MVP
              • 08-02-11
              • 1405
              #4
              Thank you both for your replys...I have backtested the scenarios, however when I backtest... I use the specific "Weightings" across the board and use the data at the point in time that Vegas determined the odds. Meaning: I look at the point in time where teams sat on Oct 4 2010 before Vegas determined the odds for that specific week. Because I understand that the data they had at the time is also what caused them to choose the over/under number I think I am being more than fair.

              What I believe to be true with statistical data is that you have to understand the game to make the statistical data useful. So as I have analyzed the games and watched what took place and than compared it to the stats I was able to come up with a fair model.

              I have yet to do that with NFL... it doesn't seem to work.

              Enjoy
              Dave
              Again thanks for the comments
                Comment
                • usma1992
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-02-11
                  • 1405
                  #5
                  1 arizona 0 st louis 0 1 38.5 n
                  2 atlanta 0 washington 0 3 50.5 o
                  3 philadelphia 0 pittsburgh 0 -3 44.0 n
                  4 green bay 0 indianapolis 0 7 47.5 n
                  5 cleveland 0 ny giants 0 -7.5 44.0 o
                  6 miami 0 cincinnati 0 -4 45.0 o
                  7 baltimore 0 kansas city 0 5 46.5 o
                  8 seattle 0 carolina 0 -3 43.5 u
                  9 chicago 0 jacksonville 0 6 40.0 u
                  10 buffalo 0 san francisco 0 -9.5 44.5 o
                  11 tennessee 0 minnesota 0 -6 44.0 o
                  12 denver 0 new england 0 -7 51.5 o
                  13 san diego 0 new orleans 0 -3.5 54.0 o
                  14 houston 0 ny jets 0 9 41.0 o
                  15 #n/a 0 #n/a 0 0 0.0 ####
                  16 #n/a 0 #n/a 0 0 0.0 ####
                    Comment
                    Previous template Next
                    SBR Contests
                    Collapse
                    Contests Home
                    Leaderboards
                    Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                    Collapse
                    Working...