Hold off on drafting WR's this year

[ramones951]

This year is rather unique in fantasy football. RB's are very thin while the WR pool seems almost endless. If you can load up on Running Backs this year you could have a serious advantage in your league.

Wait until at least round 3, preferably round 4 to draft your first wide receiver. I've ran numerous mock drafts grabbing workhorse running backs to get you that consistent flow of points which will help win your league, while still having a very sold core of wide receivers. This works from any draft position.

Here is a list of WR's you can get in rounds 4-6 in a 10 team draft:

Victor Cruz
Hakeem Nicks
Julio Jones
Brandon Marshall
Jordy Nelson
Steve Smith
Dez Bryant
Marquis Colston
Brandon Lloyd
Miles Austin
Vincent Jackson
Dwayne Bowe
Percy Harvin

Looking in even later rounds you still have wide outs who are going to have a great season:

Antonio Brown
Eric Decker
DeSean Jackson
Demaryius Thomas
Jeremy Maclin
Stevie Johnson

My point is it's +EV to wait for your WR's. Why take Mike Wallace in round 2 when you can get Antonio Brown who will put up almost identical numbers in round 7? Same with Roddy White.... take Julio Jones a round later. Why take Greg Jennings when you can wait for Jordy Nelson?

Everyone else wasting picks on WR's in the early round will have absolute garbage at RB while their WR's will not be guaranteed to be worth their draft position.

I've run several 12 team mocks from position 10 for example that go like this:
Round 1: Option of MJD/Chris Johnson/Matt Forte
Round 2: Option of Demarco Murray/Lynch/Steven Jackson/AP/McFadden/Jamaal Charles
Round 3: Option of Fred Jackson/Frank Gore

Any one of those combinations would be an excellent 1-2-3 punch in a 12 team league this year. Then for WR you can have 2 of the following for example Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith, Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, while possibly using rounds 6 and 7 to grab a Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Jason Witten... the possibilities are endless.

Drafting RB's 1-2-3 won me my league last year.. I destroyed everyone with my combo of Ray Rice-LeSean McCoy-Fred Jackson while still have sold WR's. Just be patient this year because the WR pool is deep.

[ttwarrior1]

shhhhh

[MexicanStallion]

Thanks for sharing your input.

[BIGDAY]

Agreed. Don't get me wrong, having Calvin Johnson on your team will kick ass.

I'll most likely be grabing the stud RB's as well.

[Straight Cash]

Definitely a deep position, makes it even more important to snag one of the few top flight rbs

[DJ Dalamar]

Everyone keeps saying this but there is a huge drop off once you get past the top 3 RB's.

[ramones951]

Everyone keeps saying this but there is a huge drop off once you get past the top 3 RB's.

And an even bigger drop off after the top 15 or so. Remember you need at least 2 RB's. If you have three of the top 15 in a 12 team league... do the math, you have a huge advantage. Especially this year.

The fact that you can get great WR talent so late this year just makes it even more important to load up on talent in other positions in the early rounds.

It also gives you invaluable depth at the RB position in case of injury. If you just have 1 good RB1 and a mediocre RB2, you're going to be really screwed if one of them gets injured

[DJ Dalamar]

I guess what I'm saying is if you miss out on say top 5 do you really take say MJD or Murray over a top flight QB or WR?

[k13]

How do you know who's going to have a great season?

Can you tell me the lotto numbers for this week too.....

Look at 2010-11 player rankings then at the results. Happens every year. Fantasy football is a crap shoot.

[Mr KLC]

It is a deep crop. Calvin Johnson is the only one I would even consider taking in the first round.

[convick]

I guess what I'm saying is if you miss out on say top 5 do you really take say MJD or Murray over a top flight QB or WR?

Probably not, but the top 3 WR or QBs will likely be gone by then. I assume youre talking about Brees, Brady and Calvin...

Generally speaking, RBs get more touches and TDs rushing/receiving than a receiver like Steve Smith (CAR) or Roddy White. Even Larry Fitzgerald had only 8 TDs last year. Guys like Bradshaw and Beanie Wells had that many or more one the ground. Add a few more receiving and a RB is more valuable for that reason.

PPR might be a different story though... Receivers get a slight edge over average RBs in those type of scoring leagues.

[DJ Dalamar]

That was going to be my next question in a PPR leauge would WR's be valued over RB's.

Thanks for the info.

[ramones951]

I guess what I'm saying is if you miss out on say top 5 do you really take say MJD or Murray over a top flight QB or WR?

Well that's what I'm saying, the way it's working out this year is you wouldn't have to choose between those two, you could have both. And still get Philip Rivers or Matt Ryan in rounds 5-7. Even Romo and Peyton Manning are slipping into some of the later rounds, both excellent fantasy QB's.

How do you know who's going to have a great season?

Can you tell me the lotto numbers for this week too.....

Look at 2010-11 player rankings then at the results. Happens every year. Fantasy football is a crap shoot.

Uhhh... you don't. But that's off-topic... There is uncertainty at every position. What's important is making sure you get the best value with your draft picks.

[Andy117]

Other thing to remember, RBs show up midway thru the year and turn into studs. Doesn't happen with WRs as often. When a starting RB gets hurt a relative unknown can turn into a star. When a #1 WR gets hurt the replacement is usually a big drop off. So it really helps to have quality depth at WR.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good write up.

[onlooker]

I destroyed everyone with my combo of Ray Rice-LeSean McCoy-Fred Jackson while still have sold WR's. Just be patient this year because the WR pool is deep.

You won your league last year because your league is full of clueless fools. I thought I got lucky getting McCoy last year at 12, but what pick did you get him?

[ramones951]

Hah, it was a 10 team draft and I took Rice at 8 and McCoy at 13. Smooth sailing from there!

[onlooker]

Hah, it was a 10 team draft and I took Rice at 8 and McCoy at 13. Smooth sailing from there!

10 Team.

Okay, that makes a little more sense.

[ramones951]

Yep. I'm in all 12 team leagues this year, not dealing with that nonsense anymore

[k13]

Juilio Jones is going in round 2's all the time now.

Not sure why anyone even drafts a receiver so early when they are basically the same.

[mintpicks79]

Nice advice Matthew berry.

[ramones951]

Actually cant stand that guy, hate his "take elite TE early" garbage, and his bromance for Vick.

[mintpicks79]

I agree, in my opinion gronk comes back down to earth. I would waste a second round pick on him.

[ttwarrior1]

draft donald brown

[LT Profits]

I have been saying this all along, I don't even look at other positions other then RB in Round 1 and 95% of the time I come back with another RB in Round 2. I have no problem passing on elite players from other positions in Round 1 because RBs are that important. Your TEAM will be better off if you take a Chris Johnson over a Calvin Johnson or a Rodgers/Brady because what you gain with your running backs (your #2 RB will be infinitely better than what you would have gotten if you don't take RB Round 1) is more that what you lose at the other positions. The OP is 100% right about WR being very deep and you can get a bona fide starting QB in Round 6 or 7.

[Wrigley]

Juilio Jones is going in round 2's all the time now.

Not sure why anyone even drafts a receiver so early when they are basically the same.

many cheat sheets have him rank the number 2 wr on the board

[Terrapin Station]

Great input and post. Agree with you 100%.

[Robber]

Wr deeper than qb or rb I think or te

[downsouth]

10 team draft and your basically going to have all stacked teams anyway. LEague is almost deep enough to fill all 12 teamers as well if smaller starting rosters.

[ZetaPsi808]

good strategy here pal

ramones sharp as usual

[ramones951]

My main 12 team league this year, my RB corps includes CJ2K, Forte, and Fred Jackson. Deepest in my league.

WR's include J Nelson, Antonio Brown, and E Decker

I didnt necessarily want CJ2K this year but I was in the awkward 7th spot. Was very pleased when Forte fell to me.

This draft was before Mjd ended his holdout

[Speedy88]

Yep I'm not taking my first WR until the 4th round, unless something falls to me in the 3rd round that I can't pass up (Julio, Marshall, etc.). But I've done several mocks where I've waited til the 4th round and I've ended up with a WR core of Dez and Bowe, which i'm totally fine with. Both those guys have WR1 potential.

[mrpooh]

I waited and got A. Brown, V Jackson and S. Johnson.

[ramones951]

Yep I'm not taking my first WR until the 4th round, unless something falls to me in the 3rd round that I can't pass up (Julio, Marshall, etc.). But I've done several mocks where I've waited til the 4th round and I've ended up with a WR core of Dez and Bowe, which i'm totally fine with. Both those guys have WR1 potential.

I totally agree. Julio and Marshall have been getting drafted higher and higher, I would probably take one of them in the 3rd round if I'm really pleased with how my first two rounds went. But they were both gone, so I'm happy with taking Freddy Jax

I waited and got A. Brown, V Jackson and S. Johnson.

[onlooker]

This is where I got my WR's at in my draft. 12 team PPR league.

2nd (24th) Andre Johnson
4th (48th) Dwayne Bowe
5th (49th) Percy Harvin
11th (121st) Titus Young
13th (145th) Danny Amendola

http://forum.sbrforum.com/fantasy-sports-betting-contests/1855150-my-2012-fantasy-football-team.html