Taken from the following column written by ESPN's Matthew Berry.
Arian, Arian, ArianCan he repeat?
If you've read me for at all in the past two years (I took a bunch of heat for liking him as a rookie in Week 15 of '09), you know I love this guy. But can he repeat? History says no.
Mark Malzewski of ESPN Stats & Information pulled the numbers on every running back in the last 20 years who has had at least 18 touchdowns in a season and looked at what they did the following year.
Running backs with 18+ TDs (rushing and receiving) since 1991
It has happened 23 times since 1991. And of those 23, the running back met or exceeded the 18 touchdowns only nine times. And those nine times were done by Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson. Five players in 20 years. And the three most recent guys to do it -- DeAngelo, Peterson and the last year of Tomlinson -- haven't been able to repeat. History says Foster will be good, but not as good as last season.
If you've read me for at all in the past two years (I took a bunch of heat for liking him as a rookie in Week 15 of '09), you know I love this guy. But can he repeat? History says no.
Mark Malzewski of ESPN Stats & Information pulled the numbers on every running back in the last 20 years who has had at least 18 touchdowns in a season and looked at what they did the following year.
Running backs with 18+ TDs (rushing and receiving) since 1991
| 2010 | Arian Foster, Hou | 18 | ? |
| 2009 | Adrian Peterson, Min | 18 | 13 |
| 2008 | DeAngelo Williams, Car | 20 | 7 |
| 2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | 18 | 12 |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | 31 | 18 |
| 2006 | Larry Johnson, KC | 19 | 4 (8 games) |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea | 28 | 7 (10 games) |
| 2005 | Larry Johnson, KC | 21 | 19 |
| 2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | 20 | 31 |
| 2004 | Shaun Alexander, Sea | 20 | 28 |
| 2004 | LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | 18 | 20 |
| 2003 | Priest Holmes, KC | 27 | 15 (8 games) |
| 2003 | Ahman Green, GB | 20 | 8 |
| 2002 | Priest Holmes, KC | 24 | 27 |
| 2002 | Shaun Alexander, Sea | 18 | 16 |
| 2001 | Marshall Faulk, StL | 21 | 10 |
| 2000 | Marshall Faulk, StL | 26 | 21 |
| 2000 | Edgerrin James, Ind | 18 | 3 (6 games) |
| 1999 | None | -- | -- |
| 1998 | Terrell Davis, Den | 23 | 2 (4 games) |
| 1997 | None | -- | -- |
| 1996 | Terry Allen, Was | 21 | 5 (10 games) |
| 1995 | Emmitt Smith, Dal | 25 | 15 |
| 1994 | Emmitt Smith, Dal | 22 | 25 |
| 1993 | None | -- | -- |
| 1992 | Emmitt Smith, Dal | 19 | 10 |
| 1991 | None | -- | -- |
It has happened 23 times since 1991. And of those 23, the running back met or exceeded the 18 touchdowns only nine times. And those nine times were done by Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson. Five players in 20 years. And the three most recent guys to do it -- DeAngelo, Peterson and the last year of Tomlinson -- haven't been able to repeat. History says Foster will be good, but not as good as last season.
