I started to playfantasy a few day ago and that's why I ask you this question.
What is from your point of view the most common mistake made by new players ?
What is from your point of view the most common mistake made by new players ?
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Wagering s well.
Poor bankroll management - obviously, if your bets all miss, bankroll management will not matter. The newbie forum has a wealth of info and tips that can save your bacon. Wagering what you cannot afford to lose is right up there as well.
Here is an excellent thread
& a golden post for you to start with.
06-22-10 03:25 AM
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1) Playing at a good book is key (5Dimes is another reputable site, adding on to the list that Sawyer provided). If you deposit at a crap book you will eventually have problems with them. Also, having accounts with at least 2 books vastly increases your flexibility & earning potential.
2) When possible, take advantage of reduced juice options over any bonus offered. It is FAR more valuable in the long run as it reduces your breakeven winning percentage dramatically.
3) Your long term success in the industry is defined by how you manage the hot and cold streaks associated with gambling. Maybe you'll win 55% of wagers over an extended period (which may not sound impressive, but would actually yield a strong profit margin), but that span will be full of ups and downs. Have a well defined notion of what your maximum wager should be for one event and if you're running cold, there's no shame in cutting down that bet size for a bit or taking a few days off to clear your head. On that same note, not everyone is cut out for sports betting. Decide whether you can take the stress before you lose a lot of money.
4) Parlays are only for fun. Stick to straight wagers if you're serious about sports betting. Books generate a substantial portion of their revenue from parlays and teasers.
5) Don't chase your losses. It's SO tempting sometimes but is a long term losing strategy. You need to be able to move on quickly from a loss and not let it affect your future plays.
6) Don't tail other people's picks or pay for handicapper's services. You're responsible for your money and if you're not making your own selections, you're eventually going to be handing your money over to the books (or even worse, to the touts). Tailing teaches you nothing and you'll never develop your own skills.
7) Learn to handicap. I repeat, if you're not making your own selections, you're not going to be a long term winner. There are numerous threads about the different handicapping methods and techniques, as well as numerous proven cappers to learn from at SBR. Justin7 (one of the mods) is also publishing a book later this summer that should be a very comprehensive guide. In general, you need to be able to establish what a fair price is for a particular matchup so you can compare it to what is being offered and identify where there is value.
8) Keep records of your plays. They will help you learn from your mistakes and maintain greater discipline.
9) Pick one sport to start in and master it before you spread your focus to others. Trying to learn multiple sports at the same time is tough.
10) Do your homework about how betting actually works. Prices associated for spreads/totals in major sports are governed by the market (just like the prices of stocks/commodities/etc). Lines open at certain values set by the linemakers first by using statistics and then adjusting them to meet with public opinion so that they will hopefully generate equal betting on both sides (a perceived fair line). The books' goal is to have even betting (or rather equal money) on both sides so that they can take their 10% vig off the top and pay off the winners with the losers money, thus guaranteeing their profit margin.
The market can generally be considered to become more efficient closer to the start of the game. This means, that it's very important where a line opens, which way it moves (and how), and where it closes. Lines move as the books try to make one side more attractive to bettors so that the money evens out. The bottom line for you is to always try to beat the closing line and you do that by accurately assigning value to a matchup and then buying at the better price before the line moves, not buying into a line that has already moved.
11) Math Skills. If you don't have them, get some. Assigning value to matchups means at least a basic understanding of Expected Value, Binomial probabilities, Poisson distributions, & Pythagorean expectation. They sound complicated, but there are numerous resources online and in the Think Tank to reference as you work your way through them. The time spent on these will pay you back tenfold. Pay special attention to the ability to convert different odds formats to compare value, and how to calculate the value of points on a spread using push probabilities.
12) Excel. Learn how to use it. Many of the calculations you'll be doing are repetitive and strong command of Excel means being able to handicap much more efficiently. You need to develop methods to handicap games as quickly as possible so you can identify potential value and then focus on those selected games.
13) Line movement. Mentioned above, it's the pulse of the industry. It offers you a chance to observe how the books react to money placed on each side and can often provide hints as to what their opinions are on matchups. Handicapping comes first, but this is a good aspect to study later on.
Last edited by suicidekings; 06-22-10 at 03:43 AM.
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This post was nominated 17 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Wyrwijedlica, LVBOUND, Bill Dozer, rfr3sh, xraygord, TheBeautifulGame, swagger, Nittany Lion, BuddyBear, ThaWoj, GunShard, MJT1212, chipper, ToxicSteve, Ra77er, DoDeMi, and NeedLuck2Win
I'm new to this forum but have been playing for many years & would be happy to assist, however, I would recommend talking to a mod / more senior member who better understands the opportunities available from SBR.
99.9% of the folks in the forums are decent folks, more than willing to help - BUT - I highly recommend checking the newbie forum first & then try a mod if you're still in doubt.
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taking all texas rangersComment -
Tailing losers like Brock, Patty and other dipshits.Comment -
don't play halladayComment -
Money management is number one IMOComment -
newbie mistake?
having your guys rest when you start them or have a rainout with guys you picked.
can't get any newer than that.Comment -
Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
information is key for fantasy players and handicappers
so many times a buddy will say "do you see the bulls are only favored by 4" and i'll say um did you notice rose and noah aren't going to play and they should be getting 4Comment -
no matter who u take,money management is the keyComment -
I'm not sure why everyone is giving you betting advice when you asked for fantasy advice....
That being said, very important you check the line ups if you're playing daily fantasy, and weather. Nothing worse than only getting 10 roster spots for a 1 night match up and then having 1 guy sit and another guys game rained out! Be sure to check daily line ups and weather!
If you're not playing daily games, and are playing season long games....then you need to be willing to watch the waiver wire tirelessly and also box scores from games quite often to try and see guys others may not that could help you. This is very relevant for the closer position especially! Closers are constantly turning over, and if you find a great one the day he takes over 1/2 way through a season, could win you title if it fills weakness!
Good luck and hope you enjoy fantasy!!Comment -
Thanks a lot , you advice are really helpfull. I am going to look at those texas rangers
and look more at the weather from now on.
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dont take whoever else is taking !!Comment -
Originally posted by ttwarrior1Originally posted by Grits n' Gravy
Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
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i played someone today in a head ups match and they picked a player that wasn't even in the lineupComment -
Not double checking lineups has killed me a few times.
Don't expect the same catcher for a day game after a night game.Comment -
because common mistakes for fantasy players are similar to common mistakes for sports betting.Originally posted by infamousbacardi
not knowing who's playing, weather, motivation, etcComment -
Yes, but those are arguably lower on the list of mistakes real sports bettors make that cost them big $$...and rather very high on the list of reasons people who play daily fantasy will lose money.Originally posted by milwaukee mikeComment -
that's only for the bankroll management. fantasy is more similar to poker than to sports. the whole point about poker is that you don't want to play against experienced players but rather against fish and that's exactly what you look for in fantasy too, by the way, OP sounds like a fish himselfOriginally posted by milwaukee mike
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mistake #1 is not picking up roy halladay off the waiver wire.Comment -
or having an invalid team. that is pretty new
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Lets go Heat !!Comment -
Heat? Random post for sure...Heat hopefully get rolled in finals AGAIN!Comment -
always double check lineups/injury reports ! basically keep good track of what your doingComment -
I have the Thunder and Spurs rated above the Heat.Originally posted by King BComment -
I just hope the Celtics beat up on the Heat enough to leave them in Finals dog tired and ready to get swept.Comment -
I would rate listening to everyone else is what I would put as a #1 mistake. You have to make your own decisions.Comment -
I am new as well to this. I found some good advice in this thread.
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I can't even win in free head to head... still have a lot to learn...Comment -
Thanks.Comment -
Not checking lineups and being too loyal to players.Comment -
in f. football drafts.... picking a kicker or defense to earlyComment -
Originally posted by koz-man
Yet I see it every season.
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taking a RB too early.
most RB get injured or platoonComment -
requires 20mins just to check weather, injuries, and lineups.
not as easy as point and click to do sports betting.Comment -
Agree. Happens all the time.Originally posted by koz-manComment
